Kinh t hc v m

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Ni dung
Bi
Kinh t hc v m l g?
Kinh t hc v m Tng sn phm ni a S nhn (kinh t hc) Tht nghip Lm pht 1 1 3 8 9 12 18 18 25 29 30 32 34 37 38 39 42 43 44 44 47 49 50 51 51 52 52 54 56 57

Nn kinh t trong ngn hn

Tin Tin t ng LM ng IS M hnh IS-LM Chu k kinh t Chnh sch kinh t v m Chnh sch ti chnh Kch cu Tin c s S nhn tin t

Nn kinh t m trong ngn hn

M hnh Mundell-Fleming S DD-AA B ba chnh sch khng th ng thi Chnh sch thanh khon i ng

Nn kinh t trong di hn
Tng cung Tng cu M hnh tng cu v tng cung ng cong Phillips Ton dng lao ng

Tng trng kinh t

Tng trng kinh t M hnh tng trng Solow

57 60 63 63 65 67 68 70 72 73 73 77 78 79 80 81 81 83 84

Tranh lun v chnh sch kinh t v m

Kinh t hc tn c in Kinh t hc Keynes Trng phi kinh t hc v m tng hp Ch ngha tin t Kinh t hc v m c in mi Kinh t hc Keynes mi

C s vi m ca kinh t hc v m
Nguyn l cung - cu Gi c cng nhc o gic tin t Lnh o gi Gi thuyt chi ph da giy

Cc h thng kinh t
Kinh t th trng Kinh t k hoch Kinh t hn hp

Ch thch
Ngun v ngi ng gp vo bi Ngun, giy php, v ngi ng gp vo hnh 85 87

Giy php Bi vit

Giy php 88

Kinh t hc v m l g?
Kinh t hc v m
Kinh t hc v m hay l kinh t tm ln (Macroeconomic) l mt phn ngnh ca kinh t hc chuyn nghin cu v c im, cu trc v hnh vi ca c mt nn kinh t ni chung. Kinh t hc v m v kinh t hc vi m l hai lnh vc chung nht ca kinh t hc. Trong khi kinh t hc vi m ch yu nghin cu v hnh vi ca cc c th n l, nh cng ty v c nhn ngi tiu dng, kinh t hc v m li nghin cu cc ch tiu cng hng nh GDP, t l tht nghip, v cc ch s gi c hiu cch hot ng ca c nn kinh t. Kinh t hc v m l mt lnh vc tng qut nhng c hai khu vc nghin cu in hnh: nghin cu nguyn nhn v hu qu ca bin ng ngn i vi thu nhp quc gia (cn gi l chu k kinh t), v nghin cu nhng yu t quyt nh cho tng trng kinh t bn vng. Cc chuyn gia kinh t hc v m pht trin cc m hnh gii thch mi quan h gia cc yu t nh thu nhp quc gia, sn lng, tiu dng, tht nghip, lm pht, tit kim, u t, bun bn a quc gia v ti chnh a quc gia. Cc m hnh ny v cc d bo do chng a ra c c chnh ph ln cc tp on ln s dng gip h pht trin v nh gi cc chnh sch kinh t v cc chin lc qun tr.

i tng nghin cu
Kinh t hc v m nghin cu nn kinh t ton th. Nhng i tng nghin cu c th ca kinh t hc v m bao gm tng sn phm, vic lm, lm pht, tng trng, chu k kinh t, vai tr n nh kinh t v m ca chnh ph, v.v.

Phng php nghin cu

Kinh t hc v m s dng tch cc phng php m hnh ha. Gn nh mi mt hin tng kinh t v m li c m t bng mt m hnh ring vi nhng gi thit ring. Do cch nhn nhn cc gi thit khc nhau, nn trong kinh t hc v m tn ti nhiu trng phi.

Cc trng phi kinh t hc v m

Ch ngha Keynes
Xem bi chnh v Ch ngha Keynes Trng phi Keynes chnh thng Xem bi chnh Trng phi Keynes chnh thng Mc d ng h th trng t do, song trng phi Keynes vn cho rng vai tr n nh kinh t v m ca chnh ph l khng th thiu v th trng khng hon ho. Cc nh kinh t trng phi Keynes tin rng tng cu chu tc ng ca mt lot cc quyt nh kinh t - c ca t nhn ln ca nh nc - v thng thiu n nh. Trng phi Keynes cn khng nh nhng bin ng ca tng cu c tc ng rt ln trong ngn hn ti sn lng thc t v ti vic lm, nhng khng tc ng ti vt gi - hay vt gi cng nhc. Chnh v vt gi cng nhc nn khi chi tiu cho tiu dng, u t hay chi tiu ca chnh ph thay i th tng cu cng s thay i. Chnh sch ti kha (thu, chi tiu cng cng), v th, c sc mnh ng k khc phc s thiu n nh ca tng cu. Tuy nhin, chnh sch tin t khng c hiu lc g c.

Kinh t hc v m Trng phi Keynes mi Xem bi chnh Kinh t hc Keynes mi. Kinh t hc Keynes mi l mt trng phi kinh t hc v m ra i vi mc ch chng li nhng ph phn ca trng phi Kinh t hc v m c in mi rng kinh t hc Keynes thiu mt c s kinh t hc vi m. Kinh t hc Keynes mi tm cch thuyt minh mnh trung tm v gi c v tin cng cng nhc trong ngn hn ca kinh t hc Keynes bng kinh t hc vi m. Trng phi ny hin nay a ra ba l lun chnh, gm: hp ng lao ng di hn, tin cng hiu qu, v chi ph thc n.

Trng phi tng hp

Xem bi chnh v trng phi tng hp Kinh t hc v m tng hp l mt trng phi kinh t hc v m da trn vic tng hp cc hc thuyt ca kinh t hc tn c in vi kinh t hc v m Keynes. Trng phi ny ly cn bng tng th ca kinh t hc tn c in lm khung, b sung thm l lun cu hu hiu ca kinh t hc Keynes, v s dng tch cc phn tch IS-LM ca Hicks. Phi ny cho rng da vo chnh sch iu chnh cu hu hiu ca nh nc c th t c trng thi ton dng nhn lc nh kinh t hc tn c in nhn nhn v y mnh c tng trng kinh t. Cc m hnh kinh t lng s gip nh nc tnh ton v iu chnh cu hu hiu mt cch hiu qu.

Trng phi tn c in
Xem bi chnh v Kinh t hc tn c in Kinh t hc tn c in, v c bn, l kinh t hc vi m. Tuy nhin, nhng l lun v quy lut th trng, nht l nguyn l Say, m trng phi ny pht hin trong thi gian t th k 19 n thp nin 1930 tr thnh khung hnh thnh kinh t hc v m. M hnh tng trng tn c in (cn gi: m hnh tng trng ngoi sinh hay m hnh tng trng Solow) chnh l l lun kinh t hc v m quan trng nht ca phi tn c in. y l mt trng phi c xem l lu i nht.

Ch ngha kinh t t do mi
Xem bi chnh v Ch ngha kinh t t do mi Trng phi kinh t hc v m c in mi Xem bi chnh v Kinh t hc v m c in mi Kinh t hc v m c in mi l phi v m ca kinh t hc tn c in hnh thnh t thp nin 1970. Phi ny xy dng h thng hc thuyt kinh t hc v m ca mnh t nn tng ca kinh t hc vi m. H gi nh l th trng hon ho d trong ngn hn hay di hn, nhn mnh vic thit k cc chnh sch kinh t v m phi nhm mc ch ti a ha tha dng ca c nhn. Nhng ng gp quan trng nht ca phi ny vo kinh t hc v m gm gi thuyt d tnh duy l, tnh khng nht qun theo thi gian, hm cung Lucas, l thuyt chu k kinh doanh thc. Ch ngha tin t Xem bi chnh v Ch ngha tin t Ch ngha tin t l h thng cc hc thuyt v l lun kinh t v m lin quan n tin t, mt bin s kinh t quan trng. Nhng ngi theo ch ngha tin t do Milton Friedman lnh o khng ng h vic lm dng chnh sch tin t n nh chu k kinh t. H ngh tin t trung lp hoc ch nn gi cho tc tng cung tin chm, n nh v va ng bng tc tng sn lng thc t. Cc l lun chnh ca ch ngha tin t gm: Hm cu tin ca Friedman, thuyt s lng tin t mi, khi nim t l tht nghip t nhin, v.v... C th hn, tin t chnh l mt cng c dng trao i hng ha vi nhau.

Kinh t hc v m Kinh t hc trng cung Xem bi chnh v Kinh t hc trng cung. Kinh t hc trng cung cao mt cung cp ca cc hot ng kinh t. Phi ny nhn mnh vic nng cao nng sut lao ng v nng cao nng lc cung cp ca nn kinh t nhm mc ch nng cao tc tng trng tim nng.11

S pht trin ca Kinh t hc V m trong th k 20

Pht trin Kinh t hc V m th k 20

Tham kho
"Gio khoa, bi tp v bi gii kinh t hc v m" ca Michel Herland (Trn Vn Hng bin dch t "Auto-manuel de macroconomie - Cours, exercices et corrigs," Paris, Economica, 1990, 276 p), Nh xut bn Thng k, 1994. Kinh t hc v m Th loi:Kinh t hc Th loi:Kinh t hc v m Th loi:Lch s t tng kinh t

Tng sn phm ni a
Bi hay on ny cn ngi am hiu v ch ca n bin tp li. [1] Bn c th gip chnh sa bi hoc nh mt ai . Xem trang tho lun bit thm chi tit.

Trong kinh t hc, tng sn phm ni a, tc tng sn phm quc ni hay GDP (vit tt ca Gross Domestic Product) l gi tr th trng ca tt c hng ha v dch v cui cng c sn xut ra trong phm vi mt lnh th quc gia trong mt thi k nht nh (thng l mt nm). Gn y, trong cc ti liu thng k mang tnh nghim ngt, thut ng ting Anh national gross domestic productNGDP hay c dng ch tng sn phm quc ni, regional (hoc provincial) gross domestic product- RGDP hay dng ch tng sn phm ni a ca a phng. GDP l mt trong nhng ch s c bn nh gi s pht trin kinh t ca mt vng lnh th no . i vi cc n v hnh chnh khc ca Vit Nam, thng thng t khi dch trc tip m thng s dng t vit tt GDP hoc tng sn phm trong tnh, huyn, v.v

Phng php tnh GDP

Phng php chi tiu
Theo phng php chi tiu, tng sn phm quc ni ca mt quc gia l tng s tin m cc h gia nh trong quc gia chi mua cc hng ha cui cng. Nh vy trong mt nn kinh t gin n ta c th d dng tnh tng sn phm quc ni nh l tng chi tiu hng ha v dch v cui cng hng nm. GDP=C+G+I+NX Trong : C l tiu dng ca h gia nh G l tiu dng ca chnh ph I l tng du t I=De+In De l khu hao

Tng sn phm ni a In l u t rng NX l cn cn thng mi NX=X-M X (export) l xut khu M (import) l nhp khu TIU DNG (C) bao gm nhng khon chi cho tiu dng c nhn ca cc h gia nh v hng ha v dch v. ( xy nh v mua nh khng c tnh vo TIU DNG m c tnh vo U T T NHN). U T (I) l tng u t trong nc ca t nhn. N bao gm cc khon chi tiu ca doanh nghip v trang thit b v nh xng hay s xy dng, mua nh mi ca h gia nh. (lu hng ha tn kho khi c a vo kho m cha em i bn th vn c tnh vo GDP) CHI TIU CHNH PH (G) bao gm cc khon chi tiu ca chnh ph cho cc cp chnh quyn t TW n a phng nh chi cho quc phng, lut php, ng x, cu cng, gio dc, y t,... Chi tiu chnh ph khng bao gm cc khon CHUYN GIAO THU NHP nh cc khon tr cp cho ngi tn tt, ngi ngho,... XUT KHU RNG (NX)= Gi tr xut khu (X)- Gi tr nhp khu(M)

Phng php thu nhp hay phng php chi ph

Theo phng php thu nhp hay phng php chi ph, tng sn phm quc ni bng tng thu nhp t cc yu t tin lng (wage), tin li (interest), li nhun (profit) v tin thu (rent); cng chnh l tng chi ph sn xut cc sn phm cui cng ca x hi. GDP=W+R+i+Pr+Ti+De Trong W l tin lng R l tin thu i l tin li Pr l li nhun Ti l thu gin thu rng De l phn hao mn (khu hao) ti sn c nh

Phng php gi tr gia tng

Gi tr gia tng ca doanh nghip k hiu l (VA) , gi tr tng thm ca mt ngnh (GO) , gi tr tng thm ca nn kinh t l GDP VA = Gi tr th trng sn phm u ra ca doanh nghip - Gi tr u vo c chuyn ht vo gi tr sn phm trong qu trnh sn xut Gi tr gia tng ca mt ngnh (GO) GO = VAi (i=1,2,3,..,n) Trong : VAi l gi tr tng thm ca doanh nghip i trong ngnh n l s lng doanh nghip trong ngnh Gi tr gia tng ca nn kinh t GDP GDP = GOj (j=1,2,3,..,m) Trong : GOj l gi tr gia tng ca ngnh j m l s ngnh trong nn kinh t

Tng sn phm ni a Lu l kt qu tnh GDP s l nh nhau vi c 3 cch trn. Vit Nam GDP c tnh ton bi Tng cc thng k da trn c s cc bo co t cc n v, t chc kinh t cng nh bo co ca cc Cc thng k tnh, thnh ph trc thuc trung ng. Cn M GDP c tnh ton bi Cc phn tch kinh t (vt: BEA).

GDP danh ngha v GDP thc t

GDP danh ngha l tng sn phm ni a theo gi tr sn lng hng ho v dch v cui cng tnh theo gi hin hnh. Sn phm sn xut ra trong thi k no th ly gi ca thi k . Do vy cn gi l GDP theo gi hin hnh GDPin=QitPit S gia tng ca GDP danh ngha hng nm c th do lm pht. Trong : i: loi sn phm th i vi i =1,2,3...,n t: thi k tnh ton Q: s lng sn phm ; Qi: s lng sn phm loi i P: gi ca tng mt hng; Pi: gi ca mt hng th i.

GDP thc t l tng sn phm ni a tnh theo sn lng hng ho v dch v cui cng ca nm nghin cu cn gi c tnh theo nm gc do cn gi l GDP theo gi so snh. GDP thc t c a ra nhm iu chnh li ca nhng sai lch nh s mt gi ca ng tin trong vic tnh ton GDP danh ngha c th c lng chun hn s lng thc s ca hng ha v dch v to thnh GDP. GDP th nht i khi c gi l "GDP tin t" trong khi GDP th hai c gi l GDP "gi c nh" hay GDP "iu chnh lm pht" hoc "GDP theo gi nm gc" (Nm gc c chn theo lut nh). Xem thc t v danh ngha trong kinh t hc.

GDP bnh qun u ngi

GDP bnh qun u ngi ca mt quc gia hay lnh th ti mt thi im nht nh l gi tr nhn c khi ly GDP ca quc gia hay lnh th ny ti thi im chia cho dn s ca n cng ti thi im .

Cc thnh phn ca GDP

GDP c th tnh l tng ca cc khon tiu dng, hoc tng ca cc khon chi tiu, hoc tng gi tr gia tng ca nn kinh t. V l thuyt, d theo cch tnh no cng cho kt qu tnh GDP nh nhau. Nhng trong nhiu bo co thng k, li c s chnh lch nh gia kt qu theo ba cch tnh. l v c sai s trong thng k. Theo cch tnh GDP l tng tiu dng, cc nh kinh t hc a ra mt cng thc nh sau: GDP = C + I + G + NX Trong cc k hiu: C l tiu dng ca tt c cc c nhn (h gia nh) trong nn kinh t. I l u t ca cc nh kinh doanh vo c s kinh doanh. y c coi l tiu dng ca cc nh u t. Lu , ng ln ln iu ny vi u t mang tnh u c tch tr vo th trng chng khon v tri phiu. G l tng chi tiu ca chnh quyn (tiu dng ca chnh quyn). Quan h ca phn ny i vi cc phn cn li ca GDP c m t trong l thuyt kh dng (c th em i tiu). NX l "xut khu rng" ca nn kinh t. N bng xut khu (tiu dng ca nn kinh t khc i vi cc sn phm v dch v do nn kinh t trong tnh ton sn xut) - nhp khu (tiu dng ca nn kinh t trong tnh ton i vi cc sn phm v dch v do nn kinh t khc sn xut). Ba thnh phn u i khi c gi chung l "ni nhu", cn thnh phn cui cng l "ngoi nhu".

Tng sn phm ni a GDP theo cch tnh tng chi ph (lc ny khng gi l GDP na, m gi l tng chi tiu ni a hay GDE (vit tt ca Gross Domestic Expenditure) c tnh ton tng t, mc d trong cng thc tnh tng chi ph khng k khai nhng khon u t ngoi k hoch (b hng tn kho vo cui chu k bo co) v n phn ln c s dng bi cc nh kinh t l thuyt.

Phn bit GDP vi GNP

GDP khc vi tng sn phm quc dn (GNP) ch loi b vic chuyn i thu nhp gia cc quc gia, n c quy theo lnh th m sn phm c sn xut hn l thu nhp nhn c . d hiu hn, ta c th ly v d nh sau: Mt nh my sn xut n nhanh t ti Vit Nam do cng dn M u t tiu th ni a. Khi mi thu nhp t nh my ny sau khi bn hng c tnh vo GDP ca Vit Nam, tuy nhin li nhun rng thu c (sau khi khu tr thu phi np v trch np cc qu phc li) cng nh lng ca cc cng nhn M ang lm vic trong nh my c tnh l mt b phn trong GNP ca M.

So snh xuyn quc gia

GDP ca cc quc gia khc nhau c th so snh bng cch chuyn i gi tr ca chng (tnh theo ni t) sang bng mt trong hai phng thc sau: T gi hi oi hin ti: GDP c tnh theo t gi hi oi thnh hnh trn cc th trng tin t quc t. Ngang gi sc mua hi oi: GDP c tnh theo s ngang gi ca sc mua (ting Anh: purchasing power parity hay vit tt: PPP) ca mi loi tin t tng i theo mt chun chn la (thng thng l ng la M). Th bc tng i ca cc quc gia c th lch nhau nhiu gia hai xu hng tip cn k trn. Phng php tnh theo s ngang gi ca sc mua tnh ton hiu qu tng i ca sc mua ni a i vi nhng nh sn xut hay tiu th trung bnh trong nn kinh t. N c th s dng lm ch s ca mc sng i vi nhng nc chm pht trin l tt nht v n b li nhng im yu ca ng ni t trn th trng th gii. Phng php tnh theo t gi hi oi hin ti chuyn i gi tr ca hng ha v dch v theo cc t gi hi oi quc t. N l ch th tt hn ca sc mua quc t ca t nc v sc mnh kinh t tng i. C th hn, ngh xem Cc ch s kinh t.

Cc vn
Mc d GDP c s dng rng ri trong kinh t, gi tr ca n nh l mt ch s vn ang l vn gy tranh ci. S ph phn s dng GDP bao hm cc im sau: Kt qu tnh GDP theo cc phng thc khc nhau lm ngi ta bi ri, nht l khi so snh xuyn quc gia. GDP, nh mt ch s v kch c ca nn kinh t, nhng li khng chun xc trong nh gi mc sng. GDP khng tnh n kinh t ngm, kinh t phi tin t nh kinh t trao i, cc cng vic tnh nguyn, chm sc tr em min ph do cc ng b b m (khng lm vic) m nhim hay sn xut hng ha ti gia nh, gi tr ca thi gian ngh ngi v nhim mi trng. V vy, ti cc nc m vic kinh doanh thc thi mt cch khng chnh thc chim phn ln th s liu ca GDP s km chnh xc. GDP khng tnh n tnh hi ha ca s pht trin. V d mt nc c th c tc tng trng GDP cao do khai thc khai thc qu mc ti nguyn thin nhin. GDP tnh c nhng cng vic khng em li li ch rng v khng tnh n nhng hiu ng tiu cc. V d, mt x nghip lm tng GDP nhng gy nhim mt con sng v ngi ta phi u t ci to li mi trng. Vic ny cng lm tng GDP. Xem thm Truyn ng ngn v ca s gy. GDP cng khng cho ta s phn nh trung thc ca s phn chia li ch trong phm vi t nc. C th c nhng nhm ngi khng thu c li ch g t li ch kinh t chung. GDP cao c th l kt qu ca mt s ngi giu c em li cho nn kinh t trong khi phn ln dn chng sng di mc ngho kh.

Tng sn phm ni a Mc d cn nhiu hn ch nhng vic tm mt ch s khc thay th GDP cng rt kh khn. Mt s thay th c bit n l Ch s tin b thc s (GPI) c c ng bi ng Xanh ca Canada. GPI nh gi chnh xc nh th no th cha chc chn; mt cng thc c a ra tnh n l ca Redefining Progress, mt nhm nghin cu chnh sch San Francisco.

Danh sch quc gia theo GDP

Danh sch quc gia theo GDP danh ngha nm 2008 Danh sch quc gia theo GDP (PPP) nm 2008 Danh sch quc gia chu Phi theo GDP Danh sch quc gia chu theo GDP Danh sch quc gia chu u theo GDP Danh sch cc thnh ph theo GDP

Lin kt ngoi
Rank Order - GDP - per capita [2]

D liu
Danh sch y cc quc gia theo GDP: Purchasing Power Parity Method [3] v Current Exchange Rate Method [4]

Cc n phm lin quan

Limitations of GDP Statistics by Schenk, Robert. [5] whether output and CPI inflation are mismeasured, by Nouriel Roubini and David Backus, in Lectures in Macroeconomics [6] Ch. 22. Measuring the National Economy, by Dr. Roger A. McCain [7]

Tham kho
Th loi:Tng sn phm ni a Th loi:Ch s kinh t

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / vi. wikipedia. org/ w/ index. php?title=T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_n%E1%BB%99i_%C4%91%E1%BB%8Ba& action=edit [2] http:/ / www. odci. gov/ cia/ publications/ factbook/ rankorder/ 2004rank. html [3] http:/ / aol. countrywatch. com/ includes/ grank/ globrank. asp?TBLS=PPP+ Method+ Tables& vCOUNTRY=17& TYPE=GRANK [4] http:/ / aol. countrywatch. com/ includes/ grank/ gdpnumericcer. asp?TYPE=GRANK& TBL=NUMERICCER& vCOUNTRY=17 [5] http:/ / ingrimayne. saintjoe. edu/ econ/ Measuring/ GNP2. html [6] http:/ / pages. stern. nyu. edu/ ~nroubini/ MEASURE. HTM [7] http:/ / william-king. www. drexel. edu/ top/ prin/ txt/ EcoToC. html

S nhn (kinh t hc)

S nhn (kinh t hc)

S nhn trong kinh t hc l mc thay i trong tng cu khi c mt thnh phn ca tng cu thay i mt n v.

K hiu
Y: tng cu (thu nhp) C: tiu dng c nhn I: u t t nhn G: chi tiu chnh ph T: thu thu ca chnh ph X: xut khu M: nhp khu T: mc thu thu c bn t: khuynh hng thu bin : khuynh hng tiu dng bin

: khuynh hng tiu dng hng nhp khu bin v : cc mc tiu dng c bn v nhp khu c bn T, t, , , , u ln hn 0. Trong : C = (Y-T) + M = (Y-T) + T = T + tY

Cng thc tnh tng cu

Y = (Y - T - tY) + + I + G + X - (Y - T - tY) + ... (1) <=> (1 - + t + - t) Y = ( - )T + + I + G + X + ... (2) <=> Y = [( - )T + + I + G + X + ] / (1 - + t + - t) ... (3)

S nhn ti chnh
Khi chi tiu chnh ph G thay i mt n v, mc thay i ca tng cu Y l: Y / G = 1 / (1 - + t + - t) ... (4) V phi ca ng thc (4) gi l s nhn ti chnh. S nhn ti chnh l mt khi nim quan trng trong kinh t hc Keynes- trng phi kinh t hc v m nhn mnh tm quan trng ca chnh sch ti chnh.

S nhn (kinh t hc)

S nhn thu
Khi s thu thu c bn T thay i mt n v, mc thay i ca tng cu Y l: Y / T = ( - ) / (1 - + t + - t) ... (5) V phi ca ng thc (5) l s nhn thu.

S nhn u t
S nhn u t bng 1 / (1 - + t + - t).

S nhn v hiu ng ht ra
Va c s nhn ti chnh li va c s nhn u t. iu ny dn n hin tng c bit, gi l hiu ng ht ra. C ch ca hiu ng ny nh sau: Tng chi tiu dn ti thm ht ngn sch, th chnh ph t phi pht hnh cng tri b p thm ht ngn sch. c th huy ng c ngi mua cng tri, chnh ph s a ra mc li sut cng tri cao. Li sut th trng v th tng ln ng thi chng khon cng ty (c phiu v tri phiu cng ty) tr nn km hp dn v gim gi. C hai tc ng ny dn ti vic khu vc t nhn s gim u t. Nh vy, tng chi tiu chnh ph qua s nhn ti chnh lm tng tng cu, nhng li lm gim u t t nhn v qua s nhn u t li lm gim tng cu.

Tht nghip
Bi vit hoc on ny cn thm ch thch ngun gc c th kim chng thng tin. Nhng ni dung khng c ngun c th b t vn v xa b. [1] Mi bn b sung ch thch t cc ngun ng tin cy gip ci thin bi vit.

phi|nh|400px|Bn t l tht nghip ton cu - CIA 2005Tht nghip, trong kinh t hc, l tnh trng ngi lao ng mun c vic lm m khng tm c vic lm (t Hn-Vit tht: mt mt, nghip: vic lm). T l tht nghip l phn trm s ngi lao ng khng c vic lm trn tng s lc lng lao ng x hi. Lch s ca tnh trng tht nghip chnh l lch s ca cng cuc cng nghip ha. nng thn, mc d c tnh trng thiu vic lm, tht nghip mt phn, lm vic t thi gian nng thn, nhng tht nghip khng b coi l vn nghim trng.

Nguyn nhn
Trong lch s loi ngi, tht nghip ch xut hin trong x hi t bn[cndnngun]. x hi cng ng x hi nguyn thy, vic phi duy tr trt t trong by n buc mi thnh vin phi ng gp lao ng v c lm vic. Trong x hi phong kin chu u, truyn i t ai m bo rng con ngi lun c vic lm. Ngay c trong x hi n l, ch n cng khng bao gi ti sn ca h (n l) ri ri trong thi gian di. Cc nn kinh t theo hc thuyt Mc-Lnin c gng to vic lm cho mi c nhn, thm ch l phnh to b my nu cn thit (thc t ny c th gi l tht nghip mt phn hay tht nghip n nhng m bo c nhn vn c thu nhp t lao ng). Trong x hi t bn, gii ch chy theo mc ch ti thng l li nhun, mt khc h khng phi chu trch nhim cho vic sa thi ngi lao ng, do h vui lng chp nhn tnh trng tht nghip, thm ch kim li t tnh trng tht nghip. Ngi lao ng khng c cc ngun lc sn xut trong tay t lao ng phi chp nhn i lm thu hoc tht nghip.

Tht nghip Cc hc thuyt kinh t hc gii thch tht nghip theo cc cch khc nhau. Kinh t hc Keynes nhn mnh rng nhu cu yu s dn n ct gim sn xut v sa thi cng nhn (tht nghip chu k). Mt s khc ch rng cc vn v c cu nh hng th trng lao ng (tht nghip c cu). Kinh t hc c in v tn c in c xu hng l gii p lc th trng n t bn ngoi, nh mc lng ti thiu, thu, cc quy nh hn ch thu mn ngi lao ng (tht nghip thng thng). C kin li cho rng tht nghip ch yu l s la chn t nguyn. Ch ngha Mc gii thch theo hng tht nghip l thc t gip duy tr li nhun doanh nghip v ch ngha t bn. Cc quan im khc nhau c th ng theo nhng cch khc nhau, gp phn a ra ci nhn ton din v tnh trng tht nghip. Vic p dng nguyn l cung - cu vo th trng lao ng gip l gii t l tht nghip cng nh gi c ca lao ng. Nghin cu ca Ngn hng Th gii Chu Phi, Trung ng v Chu M Latinh ch ra, cc nc ang pht trin, tnh trng tht nghip cao trong ph n v thanh nin cn l hu qu ca nhng quy nh v trch nhim ch lao ng.

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Phn loi
Tht nghip c in: l dng tht nghip lin quan ti loi vic lm m tin cng thc t tr cho ngi lm cng vic cao hn mc tin cng thc t bnh qun ca th trng lao ng chung, khin cho lng cung v lao ng i vi cng vic ny cao hn lng cu. Dng tht nghip ny cn c gi l tht nghip tin cng thc t. Tht nghip c cu: l dng tht nghip do ngi lao ng v ngi thu mn lao ng khng tm c nhau v nhng l do nh khc bit v a l, thiu thng tin, v.v... Tht nghip chu k: l loi tht nghip lin quan n chu k kinh t ti pha m tng cu thp hn tng cung dn ti doanh nghip phi thu hp sn xut v phi gim thu mn lao ng. Dng tht nghip ny cn c gi l tht nghip Keynes v Keynes l ngi xng thuyt v tng cu-tng cung. Tht nghip ma st: l loi tht nghip tm thi do ngi lao ng ang ch tm c vic lm m h k vng ch khng phi khng th tm c vic lm no. Tht nghip tr hnh: l dng tht nghip ca nhng ngi lao ng khng c s dng ng hoc khng c s dng ht k nng. Thuc loi ny bao gm c nhng ngi lm ngh nng trong thi im nng nhn (i khi nhng ngi ny c tch ring thnh nhng ngi tht nghip theo thi v). Tht nghip n: l dng tht nghip khng c bo co.

nh hng ti x hi v nn kinh t
Thit thi c nhn
Khng c vic lm ng ngha vi hn ch giao tip vi nhng ngi lao ng khc, tiu tn thi gian v ngha, khng c kh nng chi tr, mua sm vt dng thit yu cng nh cc hng ha tiu dng. Yu t sau l v cng trm trng cho ngi gnh vc ngha v gia nh, n nn, chi tr cha bnh. Nhng nghin cu c th ch ra rng, gia tng tht nghip i lin vi gia tng t l ti phm, t l t t, v suy gim cht lng sc khe[2]. Theo mt s quan im, rng ngi lao ng nhiu khi phi chn cng vic thu nhp thp (trong khi tm cng vic ph hp) bi cc li ch ca bo him x hi ch cung cp cho nhng ai c qu trnh lm vic trc . V pha ngi s dng lao ng th s dng tnh trng tht nghip gy sc p vi nhng ngi lm cng cho mnh (nh khng ci thin mi trng lm vic, p t nng sut cao, tr lng thp, hn ch c hi thng tin, v.v..). Ci gi khc ca tht nghip cn l, khi thiu cc ngun ti chnh v phc li x hi, c nhn buc phi lm nhng cng vic khng ph hp vi trnh , nng lc. Nh vy tht nghip gy ra tnh trng lm vic di kh nng. Vi ngha ny, th tr cp tht nghip l cn thit. Nhng thit thi khi mt vic dn n trm ut, suy yu nh hng ca cng on, cng nhn lao ng vt v hn, chp nhn th lao t i hn v sau cng l ch ngha bo h vic lm. Ch ngha ny t ra nhng ro cn vi ngi

Tht nghip mun gia nhp cng vic, hn ch di dn, v hn ch cnh tranh quc t. Cui cng, tnh trng tht nghip s khin cn cn m phn iu kin lao ng nghing v gii ch, tng chi ph khi ri cng vic v gim cc li ch ca vic tm c hi thu nhp khc. nh hng ti tm l Ngi tht nghip d trong tnh trng mnh l ngi tha tuy nhin s tc ng l khc nhau gia hai gii. ph n nu khng c vic lm ngoi th vic ni tr v chm sc con ci vn c th c chp nhn l s thay th tha ng, ngc li ngi nam, em thu nhp cho gia nh gn cht n gi tr c nhn, lng t trng. Nam gii khi mt vic lm thng t ti, rt nhy cm v d cu bn, h c th tm n ru, thuc l qun i bun phin, tnh trng ny ko di ngoi kh nng gy nghin nh hng trc tip n sc khe cn c th khi to mt vn mi l bo hnh gia nh[3]. H cng d b ri lon tm l nh bun phin, mt ng, trm cm v nh ni trn i khi cn dn n hnh vi t st.

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Chi ph cho doanh nghip v gim tng trng kinh t

T l tht nghip cao ng ngha vi Tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) thp cc ngun lc con ngi khng c s dng, b ph c hi sn xut thm sn phm v dch v. Tht nghip cn c ngha l sn xut t hn. Gim tnh hiu qu ca sn xut theo quy m. Tht nghip dn n nhu cu x hi gim. Hng ha v dch v khng c ngi tiu dng, c hi kinh doanh t i, cht lng sn phm v gi c tt gim. Hn na, tnh trng tht nghip cao a n nhu cu tiu dng t i so vi khi nhiu vic lm, do m c hi u t cng t hn.

Li ch
Tnh trng tht nghip gia tng tng quan vi p lc gim lm pht. iu ny c minh ha bng ng cong Phillips trong kinh t hc. Mt t l tht nghip va phi s gip c ngi lao ng v ch s dng lao ng. Ngi lao ng c th tm nhng c hi vic khc ph hp vi kh nng, mong mun v iu kin c tr. V pha gii ch, tnh trng tht nghip gip h tm c ngi lao ng ph hp, tng s trung thnh ca ngi lao ng. Do , mt chng mc no , tht nghip a n tng nng sut lao ng v tng li nhun.

Cng thc tnh t l tht nghip

T l tht nghip = 100% x S ngi khng c vic lm Tng s lao ng x hi

T s: Khng tnh nhng ngi khng c gng tm vic. Mu s: Tng s lao ng x hi = S ngi c vic lm + s ngi khng c vic lm nhng tch cc tm vic.

Tht nghip

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Ch thch
[1] http:/ / vi. wikipedia. org/ w/ index. php?title=Th%E1%BA%A5t_nghi%E1%BB%87p& action=edit [2] Mt s tc ng ca nn tht nghip (http:/ / ashleymac. econ. vt. edu/ ashley/ 3204/ brenner. pdf) [3] Tht nghip v bin chng tm l (http:/ / www. yduocngaynay. com/ 3-3TMTrung_ThatNghiep. htm) Bs Thi Minh Trung, Associate Professor in Psychiatry, University of California, Irvine

Th loi:Ch s kinh t Th loi:Kinh t hc v m Th loi:Kinh t x hi Th loi:Vic lm

Lm pht
Thng tin trong bi (hay on) ny khng th kim chng c do khng c ch gii t bt k ngun tham kho no. [1] Xin bn hy ci thin bi vit ny bng cch b sung ch thch ti cc ngun uy tn. Nu bi c dch t Wikipedia ngn ng khc th hy chuyn ngun tham kho t phin bn cho bi ny.

Lm pht nh|phi|300px|T l lm pht ca 5 thnh vin chnh ca G8 t 1950 ti 1994 nh|phi|300px|T l lm pht cc nc trn th gii 2007 Trong kinh t hc, lm pht l s tng ln theo thi gian ca mc gi chung ca nn kinh t.[2] Trong mt nn kinh t, lm pht l s mt gi tr th trng hay gim sc mua ca ng tin. Khi so snh vi cc nn kinh t khc th lm pht l s ph gi tin t ca mt loi tin t so vi cc loi tin t khc. Thng thng theo ngha u tin th ngi ta hiu l lm pht ca n v tin t trong phm vi nn kinh t ca mt quc gia, cn theo ngha th hai th ngi ta hiu l lm pht ca mt loi tin t trong phm vi th trng ton cu. Phm vi nh hng ca hai thnh phn ny vn l mt ch gy tranh ci gia cc nh kinh t hc v m. Ngc li vi lm pht l gim pht. Mt ch s lm pht bng 0 hay mt ch s dng nh th c ngi ta gi l s "n nh gi c".

o lng
Lm pht 1 c o lng bng cch theo di s thay i trong gi c ca mt lng ln cc hng ha v dch v trong mt nn kinh t (thng thng da trn d liu c thu thp bi cc t chc Nh nc, mc d cc lin on lao ng v cc tp ch kinh doanh cng lm vic ny). Gi c ca cc loi hng ha v dch v c t hp vi nhau a ra mt "mc gi c trung bnh", gi l mc gi trung bnh ca mt tp hp cc sn phm. Ch s gi c l t l mc gi trung bnh thi im hin ti i vi mc gi trung bnh ca nhm hng tng ng thi im gc. T l lm pht th hin qua ch s gi c l t l phn trm mc tng ca mc gi trung bnh hin ti so vi mc gi trung bnh thi im gc. d hnh dung c th coi mc gi c nh l php o kch thc ca mt qu cu, lm pht s l tng kch thc ca n. Khng tn ti mt php o chnh xc duy nht ch s lm pht, v gi tr ca ch s ny ph thuc vo t trng m ngi ta gn cho mi hng ha trong ch s, cng nh ph thuc vo phm vi khu vc kinh t m n c thc hin. Cc php o ph bin ca ch s lm pht bao gm: Ch s gi sinh hot (vit tt ting Anh: CLI) l s tng trn l thuyt gi c sinh hot ca mt c nhn so vi thu nhp, trong cc ch s gi tiu dng (CPI) c gi nh mt cch xp x. Cc nh kinh t hc tranh lun vi nhau l c hay khng vic mt CPI c th cao hn hay thp hn so vi CLI d tnh. iu ny c xem nh l "s thin lch" trong phm vi CPI. CLI c th c iu chnh bi "s ngang gi sc mua" phn nh nhng khc bit trong gi c ca t ai hay cc hng ha khc trong khu vc (chng dao ng mt cch rt ln t gi c th gii ni chung). Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI) o gi c cc hng ha hay c mua bi "ngi tiu dng thng thng" mt cch c la chn. Trong nhiu quc gia cng nghip, nhng s thay i theo phn trm hng nm trong cc ch s ny l con s lm pht thng thng hay c nhc ti. Cc php o ny thng c s dng trong vic chuyn tr lng, do nhng ngi lao ng mong mun c khon chi tr (danh nh) tng t nht l bng hoc cao hn t l

Lm pht tng ca CPI. i khi, cc hp ng lao ng c tnh n cc iu chnh gi c sinh hot, n ng l khon chi tr danh nh s t ng tng ln theo s tng ca CPI, thng thng vi mt t l chm hn so vi lm pht thc t (v cng ch sau khi lm pht xy ra). Ch s gi sn xut (PPI) o mc gi m cc nh sn xut nhn c khng tnh n gi b sung qua i l hoc thu doanh thu. N khc vi CPI l s tr cp gi, li nhun v thu c th sinh ra mt iu l gi tr nhn c bi cc nh sn xut l khng bng vi nhng g ngi tiu dng thanh ton. y cng c mt s chm tr in hnh gia s tng trong PPI v bt k s tng pht sinh no bi n trong CPI. Rt nhiu ngi tin rng iu ny cho php mt d on gn ng v c khuynh hng ca lm pht CPI "ngy mai" da trn lm pht PPI ngy "hm nay", mc d thnh phn ca cc ch s l khc nhau; mt trong nhng s khc bit quan trng phi tnh n l cc dch v. Ch s gi bn bun o s thay i trong gi c cc hng ha bn bun (thng thng l trc khi bn c thu) mt cch c la chn. Ch s ny rt ging vi PPI. Ch s gi hng ha o s thay i trong gi c ca cc hng ha mt cch c la chn. Trong trng hp bn v vng th hng ha duy nht c s dng l vng. Khi nc M s dng bn v lng kim th ch s ny bao gm c vng v bc. Ch s gim pht GDP da trn vic tnh ton ca tng sn phm quc ni: N l t l ca tng gi tr GDP gi thc t (GDP danh nh) vi tng gi tr GDP ca nm gc, t c th xc nh GDP ca nm bo co theo gi so snh hay GDP thc). (Xem thm Thc v danh nh trong kinh t). N l php o mc gi c c s dng rng ri nht. Cc php kh lm pht cng tnh ton cc thnh phn ca GDP nh chi ph tiu dng c nhn. Ti M, Cc D tr Lin bang chuyn sang s dng kh lm pht tiu dng c nhn v cc php kh lm pht khc tnh ton cc chnh sch kim ch lm pht ca mnh. Ch s gi chi ph tiu dng c nhn (PCEPI). Trong "Bo co chnh sch tin t cho Quc hi" su thng mt ln ("Bo co Humphrey-Hawkins") ngy 17 thng 2 nm 2000, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ni rng y ban ny thay i thc o c bn v lm pht ca mnh t CPI sang "ch s gi c dng chui ca cc chi ph tiu dng c nhn".

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Cc loi lm pht phn theo mc

Bi vit hoc on ny cn thm ch thch ngun gc c th kim chng thng tin. Nhng ni dung khng c ngun c th b t vn v xa b. [1] Mi bn b sung ch thch t cc ngun ng tin cy gip ci thin bi vit.

Lm pht thng c phn loi theo tnh cht hoc theo mc ca t l lm pht. Nu phn loi lm pht theo mc ca t l lm pht, cc nh kinh t thng phn bit 4 loi lm pht: thiu pht, lm pht thp, lm pht cao (lm pht phi m) v siu lm pht.

Lm pht

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Lm pht thp
Mc lm pht tng ng vi tc tng gi t 0.3 n di 10 phn trm mt nm.

Lm pht cao (Lm pht phi m)

Mc lm pht tng ng vi tc tng gi trong phm vi hai hoc ba ch s mt nm thng c gi l lm pht phi m, nhng vn thp hn siu lm pht. Vit Nam v hu ht cc nc chuyn i t c ch k hoch ha tp trung sang nn kinh t th trng u phi i mt vi lm pht phi m trong nhng nm u thc hin ci cch. Nhn chung th lm pht phi m c duy tr trong thi gian di s gy ra nhng bin dng kinh t nghim trng. Trong bi cnh , ng tin s b mt gi nhanh, cho nn mi ngi ch gi lng tin ti thiu va cho cc giao dch hng ngy. Mi ngi c xu hng tch tr hng ha, mua bt ng sn v chuyn sang s dng vng hoc cc ngoi t mnh lm phng tin thanh ton cho cc giao dch c gi tr ln v tch ly ca ci.

Siu lm pht
nh|phi|300px|Do hu qu ca chnh sch Gi - lng - tin, Vit Nam phi hng chu siu lm pht trong cc nm 1986-1989 Siu lm pht l lm pht "mt kim sot", mt tnh trng gi c tng nhanh chng khi tin t mt gi tr. Khng c nh ngha chnh xc v siu lm pht c chp nhn ph qut. Mt nh ngha c in v siu lm pht do nh kinh t ngi M Phillip Cagan a ra l mc lm pht hng thng t 50% tr ln (ngha l c 31 ngy th gi c li tng gp i). Theo nh ngha ny th cho n nay th gii mi tri qua 15 cuc siu lm pht. Mt trng hp c ghi nhn chi tit v siu lm pht l nc c sau Th chin th nht. Gi mt t bo tng t 0,3 mark vo thng 1 nm 1922 ln n 70.000.000 mark ch trong cha y hai nm sau. Gi c ca cc th khc cng tng tng t. T thng 1 nm 1922 n thng 11 nm 1923, ch s gi tng t 1 ln 10.000.000.000. Cuc siu lm pht c c tc ng tiu cc ti nn kinh t c n mc n thng c coi l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn lm ny sinh ch ngha c quc x v Th chin th hai. C mt s iu kin c bn gy ra siu lm pht. Th nht, cc hin tng ny ch xut hin trong cc h thng s dng tin php nh. Th hai, nhiu cuc siu lm pht c xu hng xut hin trong thi gian sau chin tranh, ni chin hoc cch mng, do s cng thng v ngn sch chnh ph. Vo thp nin 1980, cc c sc bn ngoi v cuc khng hong n ca Th gii th ba ng vai tr quan trng trong vic gy ra siu lm pht mt s nc M La-tinh. Theo Tiu chun K ton Quc t 29, c bn tiu ch xc nh siu lm pht, l: (1) ngi dn khng mun gi ti sn ca mnh dng tin; (2) gi c hng ha trong nc khng cn tnh bng ni t na m bng mt ngoi t n nh; (3) cc khon tn dng s tnh c mc mt gi cho d thi gian tn dng l rt ngn; v (4) li sut, tin cng v gi c c gn vi ch s gi v t l lm pht cng dn trong ba nm ln ti 100 phn trm.

Cc hiu ng tch cc
Nh kinh t ot gii Nobel James Tobin nhn nh rng lm pht (t l tng gi mang gi tr dng) va phi s c li cho nn kinh t. ng dng t "du bi trn" miu t tc ng tch cc ca lm pht. Mc lm pht va phi lm cho chi ph thc t m nh sn xut phi chu mua u vo lao ng gim i. iu ny khuyn khch nh sn xut u t m rng sn xut. Vic lm c to thm. T l tht nghip s gim.

Cc hiu ng tiu cc
i vi lm pht d kin c Trong trng hp lm pht c th c d kin trc th cc thc th tham gia vo nn kinh t c th ch ng ng ph vi n, tuy vy n vn gy ra nhng tn tht cho x hi:

Lm pht Chi ph mn giy: lm pht ging nh mt th thu nh vo ngi gi tin v li sut danh ngha bng li sut thc t cng vi t l lm pht nn lm pht lm cho ngi ta gi t tin hay lm gim cu v tin. Khi h cn phi thng xuyn n ngn hng rt tin hn. Cc nh kinh t dng thut ng "chi ph mn giy" ch nhng tn tht pht sinh do s bt tin cng nh thi gian tiu tn m ngi ta phi hng chu nhiu hn so vi khng c lm pht. Chi ph thc n: lm pht thng s dn n gi c tng ln, cc doanh nghip s mt thm chi ph in n, pht hnh bng gi sn phm. Lm thay i gi tng i mt cch khng mong mun: trong trng hp do lm pht doanh nghip ny tng gi (v ng nhin pht sinh chi ph thc n) cn doanh nghip khc li khng tng gi do khng mun pht sinh chi ph thc n th gi c ca doanh nghip gi nguyn gi s tr nn r tng i so vi doanh nghip tng gi. Do nn kinh t th trng phn b ngun lc da trn gi tng i nn lm pht dn n tnh trng km hiu qu xt trn gc vi m. Lm pht c th lm thay i ngha v np thu ca cc c nhn tri vi mun ca ngi lm lut do mt s lut thu khng tnh n nh hng ca lm pht. V d: trong trng hp thu nhp thc t ca c nhn khng thay i nhng thu nhp danh ngha tng do lm pht th c nhn phi np thu thu nhp trn c phn chnh lch gia thu nhp danh ngha v thu nhp thc t. Lm pht gy ra s nhm ln, bt tin: ng tin c s dng lm thc o trong tnh ton cc giao dch kinh t, khi c lm pht ci thc ny co gin v v vy cc c nhn kh khn hn trong vic ra cc quyt nh ca mnh. i vi lm pht khng d kin c y l loi lm pht gy ra nhiu tn tht nht v n phn phi li ca ci gia cc c nhn mt cch c on. Cc hp ng, cam kt tn dng thng c lp trn li sut danh ngha khi lm pht cao hn d kin ngi i vay c hng li cn ngi cho vay b thit hi, khi lm pht thp hn d kin ngi cho vay s c li cn ngi i vay chu thit hi. Lm pht khng d kin thng mc cao hoc siu lm pht nn tc ng ca n rt ln. Cc nh kinh t c quan im rt khc nhau v quy m ca cc tc ng tiu cc ca lm pht, thm ch nhiu nh kinh t cho rng tn tht do lm pht gy ra l khng ng k v iu ny c coi l ng khi t l lm pht n nh v mc va phi. Khi lm pht bin ng mnh, tc ng x hi ca n thng qua vic phn phi li ca ci gia cc c nhn mt cch c on r rng l rt ln v do vy chnh ph ca tt c cc nc u tm cch chng li loi lm pht ny.

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Ch s ngho kh
L ch s th hin mc ngho ca mt h gia nh,khu vc hay mt quc gia.ch s ny c tnh da vo mt chun ngho kh no ,ty theo iu kin ca tng khu vc hay quc gia m c nhng chun ngho kh khc nhau.Gi d nh vit nam thu nhp di 1 la/ngy/ngi th c coi l ngho nhng cc quc gia khc th khc v d nh di 5 la/ ngy/ngi c gi l ngho kh.

Chi ph x hi ca lm pht
Lm pht c th gy ra mt s tc hi m chng ta khng d pht hin c.

Lm pht

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Nguyn nhn
Lm pht do cu ko
Kinh t hc Keynes cho rng nu tng cu cao hn tng cung mc ton dng lao ng, th s sinh ra lm pht. iu ny c th gii thch qua s AD-AS. ng AD dch sang phi trong khi ng AS gi nguyn s khin cho mc gi v sn lng cng tng. Trong khi , ch ngha tin t gii thch rng do tng cu cao hn tng cung, ngi ta c cu v tin mt cao hn, dn ti cung tin phi tng ln p ng. Do c lm pht.

Lm pht do cu thay i
Gi d lng cu v mt mt hng gim i, trong khi lng cu v mt mt hng khc li tng ln. Nu th trng c ngi cung cp c quyn v gi c c tnh cht cng nhc pha di (ch c th tng m khng th gim), th mt hng m lng cu gim vn khng gim gi. Trong khi mt hng c lng cu tng th li tng gi. Kt qu l mc gi chung tng ln, ngha l lm pht.

Lm pht do chi ph y
Nu tin cng danh ngha tng ln, th chi ph sn xut ca cc x nghip tng. Cc x nghip v mun bo ton mc li nhun ca mnh s tng gi thnh sn phm. Mc gi chung ca ton th nn kinh t cng tng.

Lm pht do c cu
Ngnh kinh doanh c hiu qu tng tin cng danh ngha cho ngi lao ng. Ngnh kinh doanh khng hiu qu, v th, khng th khng tng tin cng cho ngi lao ng trong ngnh mnh. Nhng m bo mc li nhun, ngnh kinh doanh km hiu qu s tng gi thnh sn phm. Lm pht ny sinh v iu .

Lm pht do xut khu

Xut khu tng dn ti tng cu tng cao hn tng cung, hoc sn phm c huy ng cho xut khu khin lng cung sn phm cho th trng trong nc gim khin tng cung thp hn tng cu. Lm pht ny sinh do tng cung v tng cu mt cn bng.

Lm pht do nhp khu

Sn phm khng t sn xut trong nc c m phi nhp khu. Khi gi nhp khu tng (do nh cung cp nc ngoi tng gi nh trong trng OPEC quyt nh tng gi du, hay do ng tin trong nc xung gi) th gi bn sn phm trong nc cng tng. Lm pht hnh thnh khi mc gi chung b gi nhp khu i ln.

Lm pht tin t
Cung tin tng (chng hn do [ngn hng trung ng] mua ngoi t vo gi cho ng tin ngoi t khi mt gi so vi trong nc; hay chng hn do ngn hng trung ng mua [cng tri] theo yu cu ca nh nc) khin cho lng tin trong lu thng tng ln l nguyn nhn gy ra lm pht. Lm pht loi ny nguyn nhn l do lng tin trong nn kinh t qu nhiu, vt qu mc hp th ca n, ngha l vt qu kh nng cung ng gi tr ca nn kinh t. C th do ngn hng trung ng lu thng lng tin qu ln trong nn kinh t bng cc nghip v th trng m hay chnh sch tin t ni lng. Khi lng tin lu thng qu ln, v d trong tay bn c nhiu hn 100 triu..., th s tiu dng theo m tng rt ln theo x hi. P lc cung hn ch dn ti tng gi trn th trng, v do sc p lm pht tng ln.

Lm pht

17

Lm pht ra lm pht
Khi nhn thy c lm pht, c nhn vi d tnh duy l l tm l d tr, gi tng ln ngi dn t phn on, t suy ngh l ng tin khng n nh th gi c s tng cao to nn tm l d tr y mnh tiu dng hin ti tng cu tr nn cao hn tng cung hng ha s cng tr nn khan him kch thch gi ln => gy ra lm pht.

Kim ch lm pht
Kim ch lm pht cn gi l gim lm pht. C mt lot cc phng thc kim ch lm pht. Cc ngn hng trung ng nh Cc d tr lin bang M c th tc ng n lm pht mt mc ng k thng qua vic thit lp cc li sut v thng qua cc hot ng khc (v d: s dng cc chnh sch tin t). Cc li sut cao (v s tng chm ca cung ng tin t) l cch thc truyn thng cc ngn hng trung ng kim ch lm pht, s dng tht nghip v suy gim sn xut hn ch tng gi. Tuy nhin, cc ngn hng trung ng xem xt cc phng thc kim sot lm pht rt khc nhau. V d, mt s ngn hng theo di ch tiu lm pht mt cch cn xng trong khi cc ngn hng khc ch kim sot lm pht khi n mc cao. Nhng ngi theo ch ngha tin t nhn mnh vic tng li sut bng cch gim cung tin thng qua cc chnh sch tin t kim ch lm pht. Nhng ngi theo hc thuyt Keynes nhn mnh vic gim cu ni chung, thng thng l thng qua cc chnh sch ti chnh gim nhu cu. H cng lu n vai tr ca chnh sch tin t, c th l i vi lm pht ca cc hng ha c bn t cc cng trnh nghin cu ca Robert Solow. Cc nh kinh t hc trng cung ch trng kim ch lm pht bng cch n nh t gi hi oi gia tin t v mt s n v tin t tham chiu n nh nh vng, hay bng cch gim thu sut gii hn trong ch t gi th ni khuyn khch tch ly vn. Tt c cc chnh sch ny c thc hin trong thc t thng qua cc tin trnh. Mt phng php khc th l ch n gin thit lp lng v kim sot gi c (xem thm "Cc chnh sch thu nhp"). V d, n c th ti M trong nhng nm u thp nin 1970 (di thi tng thng Nixon). Mt trong nhng vn chnh vi vic kim sot ny l n c s dng vo thi gian m cc bin php kch "cu" c p dng, v th cc gii hn pha cung (s kim sot, sn xut tim nng) mu thun vi s tng trng ca "cu". Ni chung, phn ln cc nh kinh t coi vic kim sot gi l phn tc dng khi n c xu hng lm lch lc cc hot ng ca nn kinh t v n lm gia tng thiu thn, gim cht lng sn phm v.v. Tuy nhin, ci gi phi tr ny c th l "ng gi" nu n ngn chn c s nh n sn xut nghim trng, l iu c th c t gi hn, hay trong trng hp kim sot lm pht trong thi gian chin tranh. Trn thc t, vic kim sot c th b sung cho nh n sn xut nh l mt cch kim ch lm pht: Vic kim sot lm cho nh n sn xut c hiu qu hn nh l mt cch chng lm pht (lm gim s cn thit phi tng tht nghip), trong khi s nh n sn xut ngn cn cc loi hnh lch lc m vic kim sot gy ra khi "cu" l cao.

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / vi. wikipedia. org/ w/ index. php?title=L%E1%BA%A1m_ph%C3%A1t& action=edit [2] N. Gregory Mankiw, Macroeconomics (7th Edition), Worth Publishers, chng 6 trang 155

Lin kt ngoi
Lm pht Vit Nam: Vi li bnh lun (http://tailieu.thoidai.org/2004NY_LamPhat_VQViet.pdf) Th loi:S m Th loi:Kinh t hc v m Th loi:Ti chnh

18

Nn kinh t trong ngn hn

Tin
Tin Bi ny vit v tin nh l mt phng tin thanh ton trong kinh t v thng mi. V cc ngha khc ca tin xin xem trang tin (nh hng).
Bi vit hoc on ny cn thm ch thch ngun gc c th kim chng thng tin. Nhng ni dung khng c ngun c th b t vn v xa b. [1] Mi bn b sung ch thch t cc ngun ng tin cy gip ci thin bi vit.

nh|256px|Tin giy ca Cng quc Braunschweig nh|256px|Tin giy 10.000.000 Mark ca thnh ph Danzig (1923) nh|256px|T tin 200 Euro Tin l vt ngang gi chung c tnh thanh khon cao nht dng trao i ly hng ha v dch v nhm tha mn bn thn v mang tnh d thu nhn (ngha l mi ngi u sn sng chp nhn s dng) v thng c Nh nc pht hnh bo m gi tr bi cc ti sn khc nh vng, kim loi qu, tri phiu, ngoi t... Tin l mt chun mc chung c th so snh gi tr ca cc hng ha v dch v. Thng qua vic chng thc cc gi tr ny di dng ca mt vt c th (th d nh tin giy hay tin kim loi) hay di dng vn bn (d liu c ghi nh ca mt ti khon) m hnh thnh mt phng tin thanh ton c mt cng ng cng nhn trong mt vng ph bin nht nh. Mt phng tin thanh ton trn nguyn tc l dng tr n. Khi l mt phng tin thanh ton tin l phng tin trao i chuyn tip v hng ha hay dch v khng th trao i trc tip cho nhau c. Ngi ta cng c th nhn tin nh l vt mi gii, bin vic trao i trc tip hng ha v dch v, thng l mt trao i phi mt nhiu cng sc tm kim, thnh mt s trao i c 2 bc. Tin thng c nghin cu trong cc l thuyt v kinh t quc dn nhng cng c nghin cu trong trit hc v x hi hc.

nh ngha
Tin ra i t nhu cu kinh t thc t ca loi ngi khi m nn sn xut t n mt trnh nht nh v con ngi c th t do i li trong mt phm vi lnh th rng ln. Khi , thay v phi chun b hnh l cng knh cho chuyn i di ngy, con ngi ch cn mang theo mt lng nh kim loi qu hoc tin c a chung nhiu ni i cho mnh nhng nhu yu phm cn thit. T cc hot ng thng mi ra i, tin t c quy c v ban hnh, qun l bi nh nc. i li, nh nc c quyn thu thu t cc hot ng thng mi. Ni mt cch cht ch th tin ch l nhng g m lut php bt buc phi cng nhn l mt phng tin thanh ton. Trong kinh t hc, c mt s khi nim v tin. Tin mt: l tin di dng tin giy v tin kim loi. Tin gi: l tin m cc doanh nghip v c nhn gi vo ngn hng thng mi nhm mc ch phc v cc thanh ton khng dng tin mt. Chng c th d dng chuyn thnh tin mt. Chun t: l nhng ti sn c th d dng chuyn thnh tin, chng hn nh tri phiu, k phiu, hi phiu, tin tit kim, ngoi t.

Tin

19

Hnh thnh
Tin hnh thnh nh mt phng tin trao i a nng n gin ha thng mi. Nu nh trc kia tin thng c lin kt vi cc phng tin trao i hin thc c gi tr th d nh ng tin bng vng th tin ngy nay thng thng l t vt liu m chnh n khng c gi tr (tin giy). Trong trao i quc t ngi ta gi cc loi tin khc nhau l tin t. Gi tr ca tin hnh thnh t tr gi i ng m tin i din cho chng. Ngy xa vng v bc l cc vt bo m gi tr ca tin ti chu u. Ngy nay vic ny khng cn thng dng na v tin l tng trng cho gi tr ca hng ha m ngi ta c th mua c. Chnh v th m khi a thm tin giy hay tin kim loi vo s dng th tng gi tr ca tin lu thng trong mt nn kinh t khng c nng cao thm m ch dn n lm pht.

Ngun gc v lch s ca tin

Ngy nay, chng ta s dng c tin xu v tin giy, nhng thc t khng phi lc no cng vy. Trc khi nhng ng tin kim loi v tin giy c mt, con ngi s dng nhiu th khc thng mua th h cn, Chng hn, mt ni n trn th gii, ngi ta s dng rng c mp nh l tin. nhiu ni khc, tin c th l nhng chic lng chim sc s v nhng chic v s qu him. C ni ngi ta cn dng cng lng cng trn ui voi lm tin. Lng chim l loi tin nh nht t trc n nay. Chng c s dng trn o Santa Cruz. l loi tin nng nht t trc n gi. Chng c s dng trn o Yap Thi Bnh Dng. C hn nng trn 500 cn Anh (1 cn Anh = 0,4536 kg). Loi tin nh nht t trc n nay c pht hin Hy Lp. Tin c lm bng kim loi, nhng c kch thc nh hn ht to. Khng ai bit chnh xc ngi ta bt u s dng tin di nhng hnh thc ng tin kim loi t khi no. Cc nh kho c pht hin nhng ng tin kim loi c t nm 600 trc cng nguyn, v th ta bit chng c lu hnh trong sut mt thi gian di. Lc u ngi ta s dng nhng kim loi qu nh vng v bc ch tin xu. H in hnh ngi hoc (con) th trn mi ng tin xc nh gi tr ca n. Trong nhng nm 1200, ngi Trung Quc c nhng ng tin bng st. Nhng ng tin ny gi tr chng l bao, cho nn ngi dn phi s dng mt s lng ln khi mua hng. Do rt bt tin khi phi mang mt s lng ln nhng ng tin st nng n nn chnh ph cho in nhng giy bin nhn. Ngi ta mang cc bin nhn ny n ngn hng i ra tin xu. y l v d u tin ta c c v vic pht hnh v s dng tin giy. Ngy nay, hu ht cc nc u s dng c tin xu ln tin giy. M, cc loi tin giy u c cng kch c v mu sc nh nhau. Chng hn, t mt la c cng kch c v mu sc y nh t mt trm la. nhiu quc gia khc, tin giy c in di nhiu kch c v mu sc khc nhau. T c kch thc nh hn th c gi tr thp hn. Vic ny to iu kin cho chng ta ch cn nhn thong qua l c th xc nh c gi tr ca chng. Tt c nhng s kin ny khin lch s tin t tr thnh mt cng cuc nghin cu l th.

Ti u ha thng mi
Ngi ta tin rng u tin hng ha v cc dch v c trao i trc tip vi nhau (thng mi trao i). V iu ny khng thc dng nn hng ha v dch v c trao i vi cc loi hng ha khc m c th c tip tc trao i mt cch d dng. Loi hng ha l tin ny l nhng vt c gi tr p hay hu ch nh b, lc , lng sc vt, dao, xng, vng trang sc, qu, mui v nhiu loi khc. Khi ngi ta khm ph ra rng mt s vt khng cn c s dng na m ch c tip tc trao i th cc bn sao chp nh hn v t c gi tr hn ca cc vt ny c s dng lm phng tin thanh ton. Thuc v cc loi hng ha tr thnh tin l cc v s cho n khi ngi Trung Quc tin qun vo nm 1950 (ch "bi" trong "bo bi" ch n con s). l cc hnh thc thanh ton u tin trc khi c tin. (Tin trong ting La tinh l pecunia bt ngun t pecus c ngha l con b v ng tin kim loi u tin ca La M tng trng cho gi tr ca mt con b.) Kh nng c th m c, d bo ton, d vn chuyn ng mt vai tr quan trng trong vic la chn vt liu cng nh kh nng c th gi c gi tr. Cc thi hay si dy bng ng thic hay bc p ng c cc yu cu ny v c gi tr bn vng v c th bo ton d dng. Cc ng tin kim loi u tin c ngi Lydia pha Ty ca Th Nh K ngy nay c t vng, trong thi gian gia 640 v 600 TCN, c nhiu kch thc v gi tr khc nhau v c dng nh l mt phng tin thanh ton

Tin n gin ha vic tr lng cho nhng ngi lnh nh thu. Mt lng nht nh ca cc ht bi vng c nu chy thnh ng tin v sau hnh ca nh vua c dp ni ln trn. Nh vua ngi Lydia cui cng, Croesus, v th m mang danh l giu c v hn. Cc ng tin kim loi ny lm cho vic thng mi d dng i rt nhiu v chng c u im l bao gi cng c kch thc, trng lng v hnh dng khng thay i v thay v l phi cn th c th m c. Cc ch trch v ph phn v thuyt cho rng tin hnh thnh t thng mi trao i xut pht t nhng ngi i din cho Ch ngha N (ting Anh: Debitism), c bit l Paul C. Martin. L lun c a ra l s dng mt vt trao i th ba trc tin l s lm cho vic trao i phc tp thm. T mt giao dch bin thnh hai giao dch. iu quyt nh chnh l chc nng ca tin, dng ni tip thi gian gia nhu cu cn dng hng ha A v s sn xut hng ha B. V th m tin ngay t u khng phi l hng ha v cng khng phi l mt vt trao i m l du hiu cho mt mi quan h n.

20

Tin kim loi

Mi cho n trong th k 18 gi tr ca cc loi tin t ca chu u c nh ngha thng qua lng kim loi qu. Bn cnh vic theo di sn xut trong nc, cc xng c tin quc gia cn theo di c vic c tin ca nc ngoi. Mt tin t c nh gi qu cao hay qu thp khi ng tin c tnh trn hay di gi tr ca kim loi trong lc tnh ton vi cc tin t khc trn th gii. nh|256px|Chng phiu vng ca chnh ph Hoa K (1922) Vic c tnh mi mn ng tin ly bt i kim loi to nn nhiu vn rt ln trong vic s dng tin kim loi. Vic gi tr ca cc kim loi qu bin ng khi so snh vi nhau cn mang li nhiu vn ln hn. Gi tr ca cc loi tin t khc nhau, bao gm cc ng tin bng vng, bc v ng, khng th gi n nh khi so snh vi nhau c. Bc c mang ra khi Ty Ban Nha v Anh v cc thng gia ngi Ty Ban Nha v ngi Anh nh gi cc ng tin vng cao hn mt t so vi cc i tc thng mi quc t ca h, to thnh mt vn lan rng khp trong thng mi quc t: chu ngi ta li khng thy c l do g nh gi vng cao hn nh chu u. V th m bc c mang n chu i ly vng. Gii php cho vn ny trong u th k 18 ti Anh l loi tin t v nguyn tc da trn vng, Ngn hng Quc gia Anh (Bank of England) bo m s tr cho ngi s hu ng tin Anh quc gi tr tng ng vi gi tr ca vng trn th trng ti mi thi im. (Xem: Kim bn v). Cc vn ca cuc ci cch ny c th nhn thy ngay trc mt: Lm sao c th bo m l ngn hng khng pht hnh tin nhiu hn l s lng tin c bo chng bng vng ca ngn hng? Trong thp nin 1730 c mt cuc khng hong tn nhim v Ngn hng Quc gia Anh ch c cu thot khi gii i thng nghip ca Lun n sn sng gnh vc ly s bo m ny. V mt khc cc th on gian ln trong tin kim loi v bin ng gi tr gia cc loi tin kim loi trong nc khng cn na. Mi cho n trong th k 19 mt s tin t th d nh la M vn c bo chng bng vng v cho n ngy hm nay vic hy b bo chng vng cng khng phi l mt iu tt nhin.

Tin ngn hng

Tin ngn hng hay cn gi l tin ghi n ang c lu thng ph bin trong cc nn kinh t hin i. Mt khon tin gi chnh l tin ngn hng v l khon tin ngn hng n ch ti khon. Ch ti khon c th rt tin mt hoc vit sc, ra lnh cho ngn hng chuyn tin thanh ton cho mt bn th ba. Tin ngn hng l phng tin thanh ton c chp nhn rng ri.

S dng tin v cc chc nng ca tin

Nu mt ngi c tin th c th dng tin lm nhng vic sau y: Tiu tin (tiu th, phng tin thanh ton) Gi tin ly tin li (u t) i ly mt loi tin t khc (trao i)

Tin Tr tin (bo ton gi tr) Tng s tin trong lu hnh phn nh s phn chia ca sn phm quc gia: Lng tin m mt ngi s hu tng ng vi lng sn phm quc gia m ngi c th c khi tiu dng lng tin s hu.

21

Chc nng l phng tin thanh ton

Trong mt nn kinh t khng c mt chun mc o gi tr chung (th d nh l tin) th mt giao dch thnh cng gia 2 vt trong kinh t i hi cc nhu cu trao i phi ph hp vi nhau. Mt th d: Mt ngi nng dn mun bn ng cc v cn dng c. Mt th th cng mun i dng c ly tht. Gia 2 ngi ny s khng bao gi c mt cuc mua bn trao i v nh bn ca ngi nng dn khng ph hp vi nh mua ca ngi th th cng. C hai ngi c th phi tm kim rt lu cho n khi gp c mt ngi c nh giao dch ph hp. Cng vi tin qu trnh ny c n gin ha i rt nhiu: Ngi nng dn c th bn ng cc cho mt ngi th ba v dng tin thu c d i ly dng c ti ngi th th cng. Ngi th th cng c th dng tin thu c mua tht ti mt ngi th t.

Chc nng l n v o lng gi tr

Khi tin l mt chun mc chung o gi tr th tt c cc gi c ca mt nn kinh t c th c th hin bng n v tin t. Trong mt nn kinh t vi 1 triu loi hng ha khc nhau khi so snh gi tr trao i ca mi hai loi hng ha mt s c vo khong 500 t gi tng i khc nhau (th d: 1 gi lao ng = 5 bnh m; 1 gi lao ng = 1 ci o; 1 gi lao ng = 1kg tht; 5 bnh m = 1 ci o; 1 ci o = 1kg tht,...). Khi s dng tin nh l mt chun mc gi tr chung th ch cn 1 triu t l trao i (5 n v tin = 1 gi lao ng = 5 bnh m = 1 ci o = 1kg tht =...), v th m khi so snh gi c khng cn phi tn nhiu cng sc na.

Phng tin tch lu

Mt phng tin thanh ton phi gi c gi tr ca n. V th m hu nh ch l cc loi hng ha khng h hng mi c tha thun l "tin" (th d nh l vng hay kim cng). Nu tin khng tn ti th mt ngi nng dn ch c kh nng trao i ng cc ly cc hng ha khc cho n khi ng cc ny b h hng. V th m ngi nng dn tt nht l nn trao i ng cc sm i ly tin "khng b h hng". iu ny cn c gi l chc nng bo ton gi tr h qu (consecutiv). Chc nng bo ton gi tr to thnh (constitutiv) l chc nng to ti sn t tin bng cch ct gi, tc l gi tin duy nht ch v mun bo ton gi tr.

Tin l n v o trng lng

Trong qu trnh trao i thng mi xa v nay, Tin cn l mt n v o trng lng hng ha. Trung Quc th ch (Dng ti Trung Quc i Lc hin nay 1 cn = 10 lng; 1 lng = 10 tin ; 1 tin = 5 khc (=> 1 cn = 500 khc) Trung Quc cu ch : Dng trong x hi Trung Hoa xa v nay vn ang dng ti Hng Cng. Ring ti Vit Nam: hin vn dng trong th trng vng bc, ng dc 1 cn = 16 lng (lng); 1 lng = 10 tin ; 1 tin = 3.73khc (=> 1cn = 596.8khc). Trong ng y hin vn dng n v tin = 1/10 lng (Dn Vit quen gi TIN l ng cn hay ch). Trn th trng vng bc hin nay, n v lng vn rt thng dng : 1 lng = 10 ch (10 tin).

Tin

22

Cung cp tin
Qu trnh cung cp tin ngy nay
Trn l thuyt c th phn bit hai loi tin khc nhau. Loi th nht l tin ca ngn hng quc gia, do ngn hng quc gia pht hnh hay tiu hy, tin mt thuc v loi tin ny. Loi th hai l tin xut pht t cc ngn hng thng mi m chnh xc th ch l cc yu cu thanh ton tin (cc khon phi thu). Phng cch cung tin thng dng nht l cho vay. Cc ngn hng thng mi cung cp tin bng cch cho khch hng vay tin. Sau khi chp nhn cho khch hng vay tin, ngn hng s ghi khon tin ny vo ti khon ca khch hng v ngi vay c th chuyn khon s tin ny n cc khch hng khc ca ngn hng hay n khch hng cacc ngn hng khc. Tin c to thnh thng qua chu trnh ny v mt mt tin c a vo lu hnh nhng v mt khc ch hnh thnh yu cu thanh ton ca ngn hng i vi ngi vay v ch l mt mc ca cc khon phi thu trong bn cn i k ton ca ngn hng. Ngc li khi hon tr n th tin c tiu hy i v tin quay v ngn hng v mn n c thanh ton. V khon tin va c to thnh li c th l c s to thnh cc khon tin khc nn trn l thuyt khng c gii hn ti a cho cc khon tin do ngn hng to thnh. kim sot qu trnh ny ngoi cc quy nh cn i k ton (n qu mc, bo chng vn t c) cn c d tr ti thiu bt buc, tc l cc ngn hng thng mi phi k thc ti ngn hng quc gia mt t l nht nh ca s tin gi khng k hn ca khch hng. Khi vn t c ca ngn hng cng vi tin gi ca khch hng khng c th cho vay nhiu nh mun ngn hng thng mi c th vay tin t ngn hng quc gia, ngi ta gi l ti cp vn. Ngn hng quc gia cng c th to thm tin m khng cn phi cho vay, th d nh bng cch mua ngoi t, kim loi qu hay chng khon. Ngoi cng c ny ra ngn hng quc gia cn c th ch ng mua tri phiu hay cho ngn hng thng mi vay. Vic cho chnh ph vay tin b cm trong vng Euro t bc th 2 ca Lin minh Tin t chu u trong nm 2004, tc l nh nc khng c php vay tin ca ngn hng quc gia. Ti M th li khc: Th d nh vo ngy 17 thng 11 nm 2004 mc "U.S. Treasury" (tri phiu ca ngn kh M) chim n 89,3% tng ti sn ca Cc d tr Lin bang M (FED). Ni mt cch khc ng la M c "bo chng" gn nh hon ton bng n quc gia ca chnh ph M. mt khch hng ca ngn hng c th thanh ton cc giao dch bng tin bn ngoi h thng ngn hng, ngn hng quc gia in tin giy v cc ngn hng c th "vay" (ng ra l "mua" cng vi mt tha thun mua li ca ngn hng quc gia) tr cho khch hng (tin mt). Ngn hng quc gia a ra mt li sut nht nh khi a tin cho cc ngn hng thng mi, gi l li sut c bn. Ton b h thng tin t c th c miu t di dng ca mt bn cn i k ton. mt bn l tin trong lu hnh, bn kia l cc khon n tng ng, d tr vng v tin cng vi chng khon thuc v s hu ca ngn hng quc gia. Mi mt khon tin c trong ti khon v mi mt t tin giy u tng ng vi mt mc n (khon phi thu) hay l mt mc ti sn trong bn cn i k ton ca ngn hng quc gia.

Th trng tin
c bi chnh v th trng tin t Cng ging nh cho hng ha v dch v, c th trng tin vi cung v cu tn ti cho vic vay tin. Cc t nhn v doanh nghip c nhu cu tin v ng thi cng l ngun cung ng khi gi tin tit kim vo ngn hng. H thng ngn hng l ngi mi gii gia 2 nhm ny v v th lm cho th trng c hiu qu hn v ngi tit kim tin v ngi mun vay tin khng phi t tm kim cho tng giao dch na. Ngn hng ly tin cng cho dch v ny bng hiu s gia li sut tit kim v li sut cho vay. Li sut hnh thnh t th trng ny c quyt nh bi cung v cu v trn nguyn tc chnh l gi phi tr cho vic mn tin. Ngn hng quc gia c th to nh hng ln th trng tin bng cch hoc l gin tip tc ng n cung v cu thng qua li sut dnh cho tin ca ngn hng quc gia hoc l ch ng to nh hng n vic cung ng tin

Tin trong khun kh ca chnh sch gi l chnh sch th trng m. Trong chnh sch ny ngn hng quc gia mua mt s chng khon nht nh v tr bng tin ca ngn hng quc gia. Tin c a thm vo trong h thng lu hnh. Ngc li ngn hng quc gia cng c th bn chng khon v qua m ly tin ra khi h thng. Li sut dnh cho tin ca ngn hng quc gia hay dnh cho tin gi ti ngn hng quc gia ch nh hng gin tip n th trng tin v ch khuyn khch cc ngn hng thng mi cho vay tin hay gi tin ti ngn hng quc gia.

23

Tin nh danh
Tin php nh hay tin nh danh(Fiat money) dng ch tin c pht hnh (thng thng l bi mt ngn hng quc gia) m khng c c s bo chng y , tc l hoc l bo chng khng ton b hay lp tha (tautologic). Mt bo chng l khng ton b khi nhn li nhng vt m gi tr thc t t hn l gi tr trn danh ngha. Mt bo chng l lp tha khi nhng vt nhn li khng c gi tr hay ch nhn li c yu cu thanh ton (n phi thu) li da trn fiat money. Fiat money xut pht t ting La Tinh fiat lux (s c nh sng) v loi tin nh vy c th d dng to thnh khi c nhu cu (s c tin) v ngi to ra chng (thng l ngn hng quc gia) khng cn phi c hng ha bo chng. Tin php nh khng c gi tr c nh v thng c xc nh gi tr thng qua sc lnh ca chnh ph.[2] Kh nng to ra fiat money ch tn ti cho n chng no m nhng ngi tham gia trn th trng (t nhn, ngn hng v cc doanh nghip khc) cho l tin pht hnh ny vn c mt gi tr nht nh. Nhng ngi ng h fiat money cho rng hnh thc to nn tin ny khng mang li nguy him cho kinh t (v ngi pht hnh phi c mt ng tin cy cao) trong khi nhng ngi ch trch li nhn thy y l mt phng thc lm giu khng cng bng ca chnh ph.

Lng tin t
c bi chnh v cung ng tin t. Khi nim "tin" khng gn lin vi mt vt nht nh. Mt vt c nh ngha l tin khi tha mn 3 chc nng tin ni trn. V cc vt khc nhau tha mn cc chc nng trn cc mc khc nhau nn kh c th xc nh ranh gii gia nhng g l tin v nhng g khng phi l tin. V l do ny cc ngn hng quc gia nh ngha khi nim tin v lng tin theo nhiu cch khc nhau. Ngn hng Lin bang c nh ngha: Lng tin M0 l tin do ngn hng quc gia to nn, bao gm cc khon tin gi khng k hn ca cc ngn hng ti ngn hng quc gia v tin giy cng nh tin kim loi trong lu hnh. Lng tin ny chu nh hng trc tip ca ngn hng quc gia. Lng tin M1 bao gm M0 v cc tin c th s dng lm phng tin thanh ton tc l tin mt . Lng tin M2 (cn gi l tin rng) bao gm lng tin M1 v cc khon tin gi tit kim c k hn di 4 nm. Lng tin M3 bao gm lng tin M2 v cc khon tin gi tit kim c thi hn bo trc theo quy nh ca php lut.

Chnh sch tin t

c bi chnh v chnh sch tin t. Ni chung cc ngn hng quc gia thng theo ui mt mc ch thc t v c nh khi iu chnh lng tin. Mc ch ny thng l s bnh n gi, tc l chng li lm pht. c th gii hn t l lm pht mt mc hp l vi nn kinh t quc dn, ngn hng quc gia c gng gi lng tin ng b vi s pht trin kinh t. L thuyt lng tin (Quantity Theory of Money) nu ra mt mi quan h trc tip gia tng trng lng tin v mc gi c.

Tin

24

Lm pht
c bi chnh v lm pht. Lng tin tng qu nhanh hay tc quay vng ca tin tng ln trong khi lng tin khng thay i s dn n mt cn bng gia tin ang c v hng ha. S mt cn bng ny s lm tng mc gi chung v ngi ta gi l lm pht. Lm pht c th c phn loi theo vn tc (lm pht va phi, lm pht phi m, siu lm pht) hay theo giai on (giai on tng tc giai on n nh giai on gim tc). Lng tin c th tng v chnh sch li sut ca ngn hng quc gia (xem: Siu lm pht ti c t 1914 n 1923) hay v n quc gia tng t ngt.

Gim pht
c bi chnh v gim pht. Khi lng tin gim i hay tc quay vng tin gim xung trong khi lng tin khng i th gi c c th s gim lin tc trong mt thi gian, ngi ta gi l gim pht. Lng tin gim i cng c th l do cc bin php ca ngn hng quc gia gy ra hay khi vn tc quay vng tin gim i (khi ngi dn v doanh nghip hn ch tiu dng v u t hn v tin c tit kim nhiu hn l tiu dng).

Tham kho
[1] http:/ / vi. wikipedia. org/ w/ index. php?title=Ti%E1%BB%81n& action=edit [2] N. Gregory Mankiw, Macroeconomics (7th Edition), Worth Publishers, chng 6 trang 157

Ti liu tham kho

Karl Marx: Grundrisse der Kritik der politischen konomie (ng gp ph bnh v kinh t chnh tr), Berlin (DDR): Dietz 1953 hay Marx Engels Ton tp, quyn 42 Alfred Sohn-Rethel: Das Geld, die bare Mnze des Apriori, Berlin: Wagenbach, 1990 Friedrich August von Hayek: Entnationalisierung des Geldes, J.C.B.Mohr Helmut Creutz: Das Geldsyndrom (Hi chng tin), Wirtschaftsverlag Langen Mller (cng c th c di dng E-Book khng mt tin ti (http://userpage.fu-berlin.de/~roehrigw/creutz/geldsyndrom/index.htm)) Bernd Senf: Der Nebel um das Geld Zinsproblematik Whrungssysteme Wirtschaftskrisen (M h chung quanh tin - Vn li sut - H thng tin t - Khng hong kinh t), Ltjenburg: Gauke Gnter Hannich: Sprengstoff Geld. Wie das Kapitalsystem unsere Welt zerstrt (Cht n tin. H thng t bn ph hoi th gii ca chng ta nh th no), 2004 Bernard A. Lietaer: Die Welt des Geldes (Th gii ca tin) Stephen Zarlenga: Der Mythos vom Geld Die Geschichte der Macht (Thn thoi tin - Lch s ca quyn lc). Zrich: Conzett Ottmar Issing: Einfhrung in die Geldtheorie (Gii thiu l thuyt tin t), Verlag Vahlen Wolfgang Weimer: Geschichte des Geldes (Lch s ca tin), Suhrkamp Taschenbuchverlag Egon W. Kreutzer: Wolfs wahnwitzige Wirtschaftslehre Band III - ber das Geld, EWK-Verlag Bernhard Felderer, Stefan Homburg: Makrokonomik und neue Makrokonomik (Kinh t hc v m v Tn kinh t hc v m), 7. Auflage, 1999, Springer Verlag Oliver Blanchard, Gerhard Illing: Makrokonomie (Kinh t v m), 3.Auflage, 2003, Pearson Studium Mishkin, Frederic S. (2007). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (Alternate Edition). Boston: Addison Wesley. tr.8. ISBN0-321-42177-9. Mankiw, N. Gregory (2007). "2". Macroeconomics (n bn 6th). New York: Worth Publishers. 2232. ISBN0-7167-6213-7. Boyle, David (2006). The Little Money Book. The Disinformation Company. 37. ISBN978-1932857269.

Tin Abel, Andrew; Bernanke, Ben (2005). "7". Macroeconomics (n bn 5th). Pearson. 266269. ISBN0201327899. Jevons, William Stanley (1875). " XVI: Representative Money (http://oll.libertyfund.org/ ?option=com_staticxt&staticfile=show.php?title=318&chapter=9990&layout=html&Itemid=27)". Money and the Mechanism of Exchange. ISBN1596052600. Truy cp 28 thng 6 nm 2009. Bernstein, Peter (2008) [1965]. "Chapters 45". A Primer on Money, Banking and Gold (n bn 3rd). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. ISBN978-0-470-28758-3. OCLC 233484849 (http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/233484849). David Laidler, (1997). Money and Macroeconomics: The Selected Essays of David Laidler (Economists of the Twentieth Century). Edward Elgar Publishing. ISBN1-85898-596-X. Milton Friedman, Anna Jacobson Schwartz, (1971). Monetary History of the United States, 18671960. Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press. ISBN0-691-00354-8. Sullivan, Arthur; Steven M. Sheffrin (2003). Economics: Principles in action. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall. tr.258. ISBN0130630853.

25

Lin kt ngoi
Tin giy ng Dng thi Php thuc (http://nguyentl.free.fr/autrefois/billets1/photo_billet_p1_vn.htm) Th loi:Tin t Th loi:Bi c bn di trung bnh

Tin t
Tin t Tin t l tin khi ch xt ti chc nng l phng tin thanh ton, l ng tin c lut php quy nh phc v trao i hng ha v dch v ca mt quc gia hay nn kinh t. V nh ngha nh vy, tin t cn c gi l "tin lu thng". Tin t c th mang hnh thc tin giy hoc tin kim loi (tin xu) do Nh nc (ngn hng trung ng, B Ti chnh, v.v...) pht hnh. Khi phn bit tin t ca quc gia ny vi tin t ca quc gia khc, ngi ta dng cm t "n v tin t". n v tin t ca nhiu quc gia c th c cng mt tn gi (v d: dollar, franc...) v phn bit cc n v tin t ngi ta thng phi gi km tn quc gia s dng ng tin (v d: dollar c). Vi s hnh thnh ca cc khu vc tin t thng nht, ngy nay c nhiu quc gia dng chung mt n v tin t nh ng EUR. n v tin t ca Vit Nam c gi l ng, k hiu dng trong nc l "", k hiu quc t l VND, n v nh hn ca ng l ho (10 ho = 1 ng) v xu (10 xu = 1 ho). Tin t l phng tin thanh ton php quy ngha l lut php quy nh ngi ta bt buc phi chp nhn n khi c dng thanh ton cho mt khon n c xc lp bng n v tin t y. Mt t sc c th b t chi khi c dng thanh ton n nhng tin giy v tin kim loi th khng. Tuy nhin tin kim loi c th l phng tin thanh ton php quy b lut php ca mt quc gia gii hn khng vt qu mt s lng n v tin t no tu theo mnh gi ca nhng ng tin kim loi y. Theo lut php ca Vit nam, tin giy v tin kim loi l phng tin thanh ton php quy khng gii hn.

Gi tr v gi c ca tin t
Tin t c gi tr khng phi v n c gi tr t thn m v nhng g tin t c th trao i c. Gi tr ca tin t l s lng hng ha v dch v mua c bng mt n v ca tin t, v d s lng hng ha v dch v mua c bng mt Dollar. Ni cch khc gi tr ca tin t l nghch o ca gi c hng ha. Gi c ca tin t chnh l li sut, ni mt cch khc, gi c ca tin t l s tin m ngi ta phi tr cho c hi c vay n trong mt khong thi gian xc nh. Gi tr ca tin t l 1 lng vng nguyn cht nht nh lm n v tin t

Tin t

26

Tnh cht ca tin t

c th thc hin c cc chc nng ca tin, tin t (hay tin trong lu thng) phi c cc tnh cht c bn sau y: Tnh c chp nhn rng ri: y l tnh cht quan trong nht ca tin t, ngi dn phi sn sng chp nhn tin trong lu thng, nu khc i n s khng c coi l tin na. K c mt t giy bc do ngn hng trung ng pht hnh cng s mt i bn cht ca n khi m trong thi k siu lm pht, ngi ta khng chp nhn n nh l mt phng tin trao i. Tnh d nhn bit: Mun d c chp nhn th tin t phi d nhn bit, ngi ta c th nhn ra n trong lu thng mt cch d dng. Chnh v th nhng t giy bc do ngn hng trung ng pht hnh c in n trng khng ging bt c mt t giy cht lng cao no khc. Tnh c th chia nh c: tin t phi c cc loi mnh gi khc nhau sao cho ngi bn c nhn ng s tin bn hng cn ngi mua khi thanh ton bng mt loi tin c mnh gi ln th phi c nhn tin tr li. Tnh cht ny gip cho tin t khc phc c s bt tin ca phng thc hng i hng: nu mt ngi mang mt con b i i go th anh ta phi nhn v s go nhiu hn mc anh ta cn trong khi li khng c c nhng th khc cng cn thit khng km. Tnh lu bn: tin t phi lu bn th mi thc hin c chc nng ct tr gi tr cng nh mi c ch trong trao i. Mt vt mau hng khng th dng lm tin, chnh v vy nhng t giy bc c in trn cht liu c cht lng cao cn tin xu th c lm bng kim loi bn chc. Tnh d vn chuyn: thun tin cho con ngi trong vic ct tr, mang theo, tin t phi d vn chuyn. l l do v sao nhng t giy bc v nhng ng xu c kch thc, trng lng rt va phi ch tin giy khng c in kh rng v d nh kh A4. Tnh khan him: d c chp nhn, tin t phi c tnh cht khan him v nu c th kim c n mt cch d dng th n s khng cn ngha trong vic ct tr gi tr v khng c chp nhn trong lu thng na. V th trong lch s nhng kim loi him nh vng, bc c dng lm tin t v ngy nay ngn hng trung ng ch pht hnh mt lng gii hn tin giy v tin xu. Tnh ng nht: tin t phi c gi tr nh nhau nu chng ging ht nhau khng phn bit ngi ta to ra n lc no, mt ng xu 5.000 VND c lm ra cch y 2 nm cng c gi tr nh mt ng xu nh th va mi c a vo lu thng. C nh vy tin t mi thc hin chc nng l n v tnh ton mt cch d dng v thun tin trong trao i.

Lch s tin t
Xem chi tit ti Tin.

c li pht hnh tin t

Xem bi chnh v c li pht hnh tin t Li ch m ngn hng trung ng (hoc c quan chnh ph c quyn pht hnh tin) c c nh pht hnh tin t c gi l c li pht hnh tin t. y l phn gi tr chnh lch gia gi tr danh ngha (hay gi tr quy nh) cn c vo con s ca t bc hoc ng xu v chi ph sn xut, a vo lu thng cng nh thu hi cc ng tin .

Tin t

27

ISO 4217
Xem bi chnh v ISO 4217 ISO 4217 l mt tiu chun ca T chc tiu chun ha quc t (ISO) quy nh v m ca tt c cc n v tin t bao gm c tin t dng trong giao dch thanh ton v tin t k ton. ISO 4217 cng m ha cho cc n v tin t c nh ngha l 1 troy ounce ca cc kim loi qu nh vng, bc, platinum (vng trng),... H thng m ny gm hai loi m, m 3 k t bng ch (v d: USD) v m 3 k t bng s (v d: 704 cho ng Vit Nam). Tr mt vi ngoi l, i vi tin t ca mt quc gia, m 3 k t bng ch c hai k t u l m quc gia (cng c chun ha theo mt tiu chun khc ca ISO) v k t th ba l ch ci bt u ca tn gi n v tin t, ng Vit Nam c m ha theo ng nguyn tc ny thnh VND. H thng m ny gip cho cc n v tin t c s dng trong thng mi, thanh ton mt cch thng nht v trnh c nhm ln.

Cc n v tin t quc t
Mt s n v tin t quc gia ca nhng nn kinh t pht trin ca th gii hoc ca khu vc c s dng nhiu v do chim t trng ln trong quan h thng mi v ti chnh quc t nh Dollar M, Euro, Yn Nht, Bng Anh.

Cc n v tin t k ton
Mt s n v tin t khng thc t xut hin trong lu thng m ch c dng cho mc ch tnh ton thun tin trong quan h ti chnh, thng mi quc t cn khi thanh ton phi c quy i ra cc n v tin t lu thng, trong ph bin l: Quyn rt vn c bit - SDR: c m ISO l XDR, y l n v tin t c Qu tin t quc t, mt s t chc quc t s dng, n cng c dng tnh ton cc ph bu chnh, vin thng quc t. XDR gm mt gi cc loi tin ph bin trong thng mi v ti chnh quc t v hin nay gm EUR, USD, JPY, GBP vi quyn s v gi tr c Qu tin t quc t (IMF) tnh ton 5 nm mt ln. IMF cng cng b t gi ca XDR so vi USD hng ngy phc v cho thanh ton. Franc Poincar: c s dng ch yu trong cc quy nh quc t lin quan n trch nhim vt cht (v d: Cng c Warszawa v trch nhim ca cc hng hng khng quc t trong vn chuyn ngi, hnh l, hng ha bng my bay). N c nh ngha l 65,5 mg vng 900 phn nghn. Tuy nhin loi n v tin t k ton ny ngy nay hu nh c thay th bi XDR. ECU (vit tt ca cm t ting Anh "European Currency Unit"): l n v tin t k ton c xy dng trn c s gi tin t ca cc nc thuc Cng ng chu u c m ISO l XEU trc khi n c thay th bng ng Euro (m ISO l EUR) vi t l 1:1. Tuy nhin vic thay th ny ny sinh mt s rc ri khi c tranh tng php l ngoi Cng ng chu u v vic ng EUR c phi l ng tin thay th XEU hay khng. Ngoi cc n v tin t k ton kh ph bin trong thng mi v ti chnh quc t nu trn, trong ngnh hng khng dn dng th gii, mt n v tin t k ton l NUC (vit tt ca cm t ting Anh "Neutral Unit of Currency") c s dng tnh cc ph vn chuyn hng khng. T gi ca n so vi USD lun l 1.

Tin t

28

Mt s n v tin t ang c xem xt chnh thc ho

n v tin t chu (ACU): mt loi tin t k ton khi u do din n ASEAN+3 (gm cc nc thnh vin ASEAN cng vi Trung quc, Nht bn v Hn quc) xng vi bn cht l mt gi tin t tng t nh ECU ca Cng ng chu u. Ngn hng Pht trin chu (ADB) ang tip tc nghin cu bin d n ny thnh hin thc trong mt tng lai gn. Eco: l ng tin chung ca cc nc thuc Khu vc tin t Ty Phi nm trong Cng ng kinh t cc nc Ty Phi d kin p dng t 2009. Shilling ng Phi: l loi tin t m cc nc thuc Cng ng ng Phi d kin p dng lm ng tin chung vo cui nm 2009 Khaleeji: l ng tin chung m nhng quc gia thuc Hi ng Hp tc cc nc -rp vng Vnh d kin p dng vo nm 2010 Cc nc thuc Cng ng Ca-ri-b cng ang c d n xy dng ng tin chung v theo k hoch s ra i trong khong t nm 2010 n 2015 nhng cha a ra tn gi.

Th trng ngoi hi
Xem bi chnh: Th trng ngoi hi nh|phi|200px|Bng in t t l trao i gia cc loi n v tin t Th trng ngoi hi l th trng m tin t ca cc nc khc nhau c em ra trao i vi nhau, chnh ti th trng ny t gi hi oi c xc nh. Cc th trng bn bun c t chc ti cc trung tm ti chnh, tin t quc t nh: New York, Tokyo, London, Zurich, Hongkong, Singapore... mc bn l n c rt nhiu ngn hng thng mi, cng ty chuyn doanh ngoi hi thc hin. Ti th trng ny, cung v cu cng quyt nh gi c ca ngoi hi hay chnh l t gi hi oi.

Khng hong tin t

Xem bi chnh v Khng hong tin t Hin cha c mt nh ngha c chp nhn rng ri nhng nhn chung khng hong tin t c dng ch hin tng gi tr i ngoi ca n v tin t quc gia b suy gim (ni cch khc l mt gi so vi ngoi t) mt cch nghim trng v nhanh chng. Chnh ph tr nn v cng kh khn khi kim sot t gi hi oi v khi ngn hng trung ng c gng can thip t gi bo v gi tr ca tin t th d tr ngoi hi ca quc gia b mt i quy m ln. c mt s m hnh khng hong tin t c nghin cu, mt trong s l nhng nh u c tn cng vo tin t ca mt quc gia v khi h c nhiu tin hn ngn hng trung ng ca quc gia th khng hong tin t s xy ra.

Tham kho
Begg D., Fischer S. v Dornbusch R. (2007), Kinh t hc, Nxb Thng k, H Ni. David Cox (1997), Nghip v ngn hng hin i, Nxb Chnh tr quc gia, H Ni.

Lin kt ngoi
Cc n v tin t theo tiu chun ISO 4217 [1] * Th loi:Bi c bn di trung bnh

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / www. iso. org/ iso/ support/ faqs/ faqs_widely_used_standards/ widely_used_standards_other/ currency_codes/ currency_codes_list-1. htm

ng LM

29

ng LM
ng LM biu din mt tp hp cc im cn bng trn th trng tin t. L v M l cc ch ci vit tt ca cc t ting Anh Liquidity Preference v Money Supply ngha l nhu cu gi tin mt ca c nhn v cung tin ca c quan qun l tin t ca nh nc. ng LM c dng trong phn tch IS-LM.

Gi thit
Th trng tin t trng thi cn bng, ngha l lng cu tin L bng lng cung tin M. Lng cung tin M khng thay i v c quan qun l tin t (ngn hng trung ng hay cc c quan tng ng) khng tin hnh bin php g lm nh hng ti lng cung tin. Lng cu tin L bng tng ca lng cu tin v mc ch giao dich v lng cu tin v mc ch u c kim li. Cng c nhiu thu nhp, c nhn cng tiu dng nhiu, do cng cn nhiu tin mt giao dch. Li sut cng cao th ngi ta cng gi t tin mt, v thay vo cng tng mua cc ti sn c li tc cao.

Thnh lp m hnh
va|phi|khung|Hnh 1: ng LM thng thng V gi thit rng lng cu tin L lun bng lng cung tin M, ngha l khng i. Nn h thu nhp Y tng, th lng cu tin v mc ch giao dch s tng ln. Lng cu tin d tr v mc ch u c v th s gim i; v m bo iu , li sut thc t r cn phi tng ln. Tm li, khi xt t gc th trng tin t cn bng, khi thu nhp tng th li sut thc t cng s tng; v ngc li. Nh vy, ng LM biu din mt tp hp cc im cn bng trn th trng tin t s l ung dc ln pha phi trn mt th hai chiu vi trc honh l cc mc thu nhp Y, cn trc tung l cc mc li sut thc r (xem Hnh 1). Phng trnh ng LM : M / P = L ( Y , r ) M : cung tin M / P : cung tin thc t L ( Y , r ) : hm cu tin ph thuc vo thu nhp v li sut

Cc trng hp c bit
nh|tri|Hnh 2: ng LM nm ngang khi li sut qu thp, thng ng khi li sut qu cao v dc ln pha phi khi li sut gia hai khong trn Hy xem xt hnh vi u c ca c nhn. H thy li sut thc t tng ln, c nhn lin chuyn tin mt m mnh ang nm gi thnh cc ti sn c th em li li tc. y l trng hp thng thng. Song c hai trng hp c bit, hay hai gii php gc. Trng hp th nht tng ng vi tnh hung c nhn th gi tin mt hon ton, l khi li sut qu thp v cc ti sn nh tri phiu ch em li li tc khng ng k. Trng hp th hai tng ng vi tnh hung c nhn em ht s tin d tr u c chuyn thnh cc ti sn c li tc, thnh ra s tin cn nm gi v mc ch u c bng khng. Vi hai gii php gc ny, ng LM cn c iu chnh li nh trong Hnh 2.

ng LM

30

Vn dng m hnh
va|phi|khung|Hnh 3: ng LM dch sang phi khi cung tin tng By gi, gi d c quan qun l tin t quyt nh tng lng cung tin M. cho th trng tin t lun cn bng, lng cu tin L cng s tng ln tng ng. Vi cng mt mc li sut thc nn lng cu tin d tr u c s khng i. V th, lng cung tin L tng thc cht l do lng cu tin v mc ch giao dch tng. Mun th, thu nhp Y phi tng. Ni chnh sch ni lng tin t kch thch kinh t tng trng chnh l da vo c ch ni trn. Trn th, ng LM s dch song song sang pha phi khi lng cung tin M tng.

Tham kho
Mankiw, Gregory N. (2002), Macroeconomics, Fifth Edition, Worth Publisher.

ng IS
ng IS biu th tp hp cc mc li sut v thu nhp cn bng th trng hng ha v m. IS l kt hp hai ch ci vit tt ca Investment v Saving trong ting Anh, ngha l u t v tit kim. ng IS c s dng trong phn tch IS-LM.

Gi thit
nh|tri|220px|Hnh m t cch xy dng ng IS u t I l hm s ca li sut thc t r : I = I (r). u t gim nu li sut tng (dI/dr<0). (Xem thm hm s u t) Tit kim S l hm s ca thu nhp Y : S = Y - C Tit kim tng khi thu nhp tng (dS/dY>0). Xem thm hm s tit kim). y lu l thu nhp bng vi sn lng bng vi tng chi tiu (chi tiu dng + chi u t t nhn + chi tiu rng chnh ph + xut khu rng). Khi mt trong cc loi chi tiu ny thay i, th tng chi tiu s thay i, hay thu nhp s thay i. Y = C + I + G + NX Th trng hng ha v m trng thi cn bng, do : I = S.

Thnh lp m hnh
va|phi|ng IS dc xung pha bn phi Li sut r tng, khin cho u t I gim i. Tit kim S lun bng u t I, nn khi u t gim th thu nhp Y phi gim cho tit kim gim xung. Biu din quan h nghch o gia li sut r v thu nhp Y m bo cn bng th trng hng ha v m ny trn th hai chiu vi trc honh l cc mc thu nhp Y, cn trc tung l cc mc li sut r, ta s c mt ng IS l tp hp ca cc mc tit kim v thu nhp bng nhau lm cn bng th trng hng ha v m. ng ny dc xung pha phi. Phng trnh ng IS: Y = C ( Y - T ) + I ( r ) + G

ng IS

31

Vn dng m hnh
V nguyn nhn no (chnh ph tng chi tiu hoc gim thu dn ti chi tiu rng ca chnh ph tng ln (xem Chnh sch ti chnh), li sut r khng i m u t I li tng ln. Tit kim S phi tng theo u t. V thu nhp Y phi tng ln cho tit kim tng. Khi r khng i m Y tng, ng IS dch song song sang pha phi ca th. Ngc li, khi r khng i m Y gim, ng IS dch song song sang pha tri.

Cc yu t lm dch chuyn IS
G (chi tiu chnh ph), T (thu): Chnh ph s dng chnh sch ti kha lm tng G (gim T) s lm IS dch chuyn sang phi. C sc ngoi sinh : C sc ngoi sinh ca ngi tiu dng ,nh u t lm tng I (u t),C (chi tiu c nhn) ngoi sinh s lm dch chuyn IS phi.

dc ca ng IS
ng IS c dc m : bi v r(li sut),I(u t) c quan h ngc chiu vi nhau. dc ca IS ph thuc vo nhy cm ca I(u t) phn nh qua li sut,gi tr ca s nhn chi tiu. S nhy cm ca u t vi li sut: u t rt nhy cm:mt s thay i nh ca li sut cng lm cho u t v chi tiu thay i mt lng ln => thu nhp thay i nhiu,ng IS s thoi. u t t nhy cm :ngc li. Gi tr ca s nhn chi tiu(m): Nu s nhn chi tiu ln th thu nhp cn bng tng nhiu.Do vy ng IS s thoi. Nu s nhn chi tiu nh th ngc li.

Cc trng hp ng IS c bit
Trong m hnh trn, chng ta thy mt ng IS trn tru, dc xung pha phi. Song c nhng trng hp c bit, ng IS s khng phi nh vy. ng IS thng ng: Trong m hnh chun trnh by trn, chng ta gi thit l u t I l hm s gim ca li sut r. Tuy nhin, nu ni lng gi thit ny, v cho rng u t hon ton khng c phn ng g khi li sut thay i (dI/dr=0). Khi y tit kim S cng khng h thay i. Thu nhp Y cng khng thay i. Tm li, d li sut thay i, nhng thu nhp khng i. ng IS v th thng ng. ng IS nm ngang: Gi d, by gi u t I li phn ng mnh v hn vi nhng thay i ca li sut r. Lc ny ng IS s nm ngang.

Tham kho
Mankiw, Gregory N. (2002), Macroeconomics, Fifth edition, Worth Publisher.

M hnh IS-LM

32

M hnh IS-LM
M hnh IS-LM: cng c bit n nh l m hnh Hicks-Hansen, c nh kinh t hc ngi Anh John Hicks (1904-1989) v nh kinh t hc ca Hoa K Alvin Hansen (1887-1975) a ra v pht trin. M hnh IS-LM c s dng kt hp cc hot ng khc nhau ca nn kinh t: n l s kt hp ca th trng ti chnh (tin t) vi th trng hng ha v dch v. Trong nn kinh t ng th m hnh khng chu nh hng ca cc yu t bn ngoi nn kinh t: xut khu rng (NX), t gi hi oi,li sut th gii... Trong ting Anh, IS-LM l vit tt ca Investment/Saving - Liquidity preference/Money supply (u t/Tit kim Nhu cu thanh ton/Tin cung cp u i).

C s hnh thnh m hnh

nh|phi|220px|Hnh m t cch xy dng ng LM nh|tri|220px|Hnh m t cch xy dng ng IS Xem bi ring v ng IS v ng LM Phng trnh biu hin trng thi cn bng trn th trng hng ha ca mt nn kinh t ng :Y = C + I + G C=C(Y-T) I=I(r) G= T= Phng trnh biu hin trng thi cn bng trn th trng tin t ca mt nn kinh t ng : M / P = L ( Y , r ) Xy dng ng IS :ng IS l tp hp cc kt hp khc nhau gia li sut v thu nhp sao cho tng chi tiu k hoch ng bng thu nhp. Phng trnh ng tng chi tiu k hoch: AE = C ( Y - T ) + I ( r ) + G Xy dng ng LM: ng LM l tp hp cc kt hp khc nhau gia li sut v thu nhp sao cho cu tin thc t bng cung tin thc t.

Trng thi cn bng ng thi trn c hai th trng hng ha v tin t

nh|phi|200px|Cn bng IS-LM trong nn kinh t ng Trng thi cn bng ng thi trn c hai th trng hng ha v tin t l trng c biu hin s kt hp hai th trng ny trong cng mt m hnh. im cn bng trn c hai th trng ny phi tha mn ng thi hai phng trnh : (IS) : Y = C ( Y - T ) + I ( r ) + G (LM) : M / P = L ( Y , r )

Kt hp hai ng IS v LM
nh|phi|220px|Giao im gia hai ng IS v LM l im cn bng ng thi c hai th trng hng ha v tin t C th kt hp hai ng IS v LM vo cng mt th vi trc tung l cc mc li sut thc t r v trc honh l cc mc thu nhp Y. Gi nh l khng c tnh hung no hai ng ny khng gp nhau. Giao im E gia ng IS v ng LM chnh l im cn bng ng thi c th trng hng ha ln th trng tin t. im E gip xc nh mc thu nhp cn bng Y* v mc li sut thc t cn bng r*. Mi ng u c th c hnh dng thng thng, tc l ng IS dc xung pha phi v ng LM dc ln pha phi. Mi ng u c th c hnh dng nm ngang v mi ng u c th c hnh dng thng ng. Nh vy, s c by tnh hung hai ng IS v LM gp nhau v hai tnh hung hai ng khng gp nhau (chng ta s khng xem xt hai tnh hung ny).

M hnh IS-LM

33

Tnh hung thng thng

Hai ng IS v LM dng thng thng (tnh hung 1). Khi chnh sch tin t khng thay i, chnh sch ti chnh ni lng c thc hin th thu nhp tng ln do ng IS dch song song sang pha phi, cn chnh sch ti chnh tht cht c thc hin th thu nhp gim i do ng IS dch song song sang pha tri. Tng t, khi chnh sch ti chnh khng i, chnh sch tin t ni lng c thc hin th thu nhp tng ln do ng LM dch song song sang pha phi, cn chnh sch tin t tht cht c thc hin th thu nhp gim v ng LM dch song song sang pha tri. Chnh sch ti chnh v chnh sch tin t pht huy hiu lc, nhng mc ph thuc vo dc ca hai ng IS v LM. Khi hai chnh sch cng c thc hin mt lc v theo cng hng ni lng hay cng hng tht cht, hiu qu i vi tng thu nhp l rt ln. Cn khi hai chnh sch cng c thc hin mt lc, nhng mt chnh sch theo hng ni lng cn mt chnh sch theo hng tht cht, th hiu qu ti thu nhp nh. y gi l nh hng trit tiu.

Tnh hung c bit

Chnh sch tin t v hiu lc: ng LM on nm ngang gp ng IS dc xung pha phi (tnh hung 2) hoc ng IS thng ng (tnh hung 3). Cc tnh hung ny gi l by thanh khon. Lc ny ch c chnh sch ti chnh l pht huy c tc dng, cn chnh sch tin t v hiu lc. Chnh ph ni lng ti chnh bao nhiu th thu nhp tng ln by nhiu, v tht cht bao nhiu th thu nhp gim by nhiu. Tng t khi ng LM on dc ln gp ng IS thng ng (tnh hung 4). Chnh sch ti chnh v hiu lc ng LM on thng ng gp ng IS dc xung (tnh hung 5) hoc ng IS nm ngang (tnh hung 6). Lc ny chnh sch ti chnh v hiu lc. Ngc li, chnh sch tin t pht huy tc dng ti a; cung tin tng bao nhiu th thu nhp tng by nhiu. Tng t khi ng IS nm ngang gp ng LM on dc ln (tnh hung 7). M hnh IS-LM

Tham kho
[1] Bi ging kinh t v m 2 - PGS.TS Nguyn Vn Cng - Nh xut bn Lao ng 2006

Hnh minh ha cc tnh hung

Th loi:Kinh t hc v m Th loi:Ch ngha Keynes Th loi:Chnh sch ti chnh Th loi:Chnh sch tin t Th loi:Cc m hnh kinh t hc

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / www. economyprofessor. com

Chu k kinh t

34

Chu k kinh t
Chu k kinh t, cn gi l chu k kinh doanh, l s bin ng ca GDP thc t theo trnh t ba pha ln lt l suy thoi, phc hi v hng thnh (bng n). Cng c quan im coi pha phc hi l th yu nn chu k kinh doanh ch gm hai pha chnh l suy thoi v hng thnh (hay m rng)[1].

Cc pha ca chu k kinh t

ln|gia|khung|Chu k kinh t Suy thoi l pha trong GDP thc t gim i. M v Nht Bn, ngi ta quy nh rng, khi tc tng trng GDP thc t mang gi tr m sut hai qu lin tip th mi gi l suy thoi. Phc hi l pha trong GDP thc t tng tr li bng mc ngay trc suy thoi. im ngot gia hai pha ny l y ca chu k kinh t. Khi GDP thc t tip tc tng v bt u ln hn mc ngay trc lc suy thoi, nn kinh t ang pha hng thnh (hay cn gi l pha bng n). Kt thc pha hng thnh li bt u pha suy thoi mi. im ngot t pha hng thnh sang pha suy thoi mi gi l nh ca chu k kinh t. Thng thng, ngi ta ch nhn ra hai im y v nh ca chu k kinh t khi nn kinh t sang pha tip sau im ngot vi du hiu l tc tng trng GDP thc t i chiu gia mc m v mc dng. Trong thc t, cc nh kinh t hc c tm cch nhn bit du hiu ca suy thoi v n tc ng tiu cc n mi mt kinh t, x hi. Mt s c im thng gp ca suy thoi l: Tiu dng gim mnh, hng tn kho ca cc loi hng ha lu bn trong cc doanh nghip tng ln ngoi d kin. Vic ny dn n nh sn xut ct gim sn lng ko theo u t vo trang thit b, nh xng cng gim v kt qu l GDP thc t gim st. Cu v lao ng gim, u tin l s ngy lm vic ca ngi lao ng gim xung tip theo l hin tng ct gim nhn cng v t l tht nghip tng cao. Khi sn lng gim th lm pht s chm li do gi u vo ca sn xut gim bi nguyn nhn cu st km. Gi c dch v kh gim nhng cng tng khng nhanh trong giai on kinh t suy thoi. Li nhun ca cc doanh nghip gim mnh v gi chng khon thng gim theo khi cc nh u t cm nhn c pha i xung ca chu k kinh doanh. Cu v vn cng gim i lm cho li sut gim xung trong thi k suy thoi. Cn khi nn kinh t hng thnh th cc du hiu trn bin thin theo chiu ngc li. Trc y, mt chu k kinh doanh thng c cho l c bn pha ln lt l suy thoi, khng hong, phc hi v hng thnh. Tuy nhin, trong nn kinh t hin i, khng hong theo ngha kinh t tiu iu, tht nghip trn lan, cc nh my ng ca hng lot, v.v khng xy ra na. V th, ton b giai on GDP gim i, tc l giai on nn kinh t thu hp li, c gi duy nht l suy thoi. Vit Nam cho n u thp nin 1990, trong mt s sch v kinh t cc nc t bn ch ngha, khi ni v chu k kinh t thng gi tn bn pha ny l khng hong, tiu iu, phc hi v hng thnh. Nay khng cn thy cch gi ny na.

nh hng ca chu k kinh t

Chu k kinh t l nhng bin ng khng mang tnh quy lut. Khng c hai chu k kinh t no hon ton ging nhau v cng cha c cng thc hay phng php no d bo chnh xc thi gian, thi im ca cc chu k kinh t. Chnh v vy chu k kinh t, c bit l pha suy thoi s khin cho c khu vc cng cng ln khu vc t nhn gp nhiu kh khn. Khi c suy thoi, sn lng gim st, t l tht nghip tng cao, cc th trng t hng ha dch v cho n th trng vn...thu hp dn n nhng hu qu tiu cc v kinh t, x hi.

Chu k kinh t

35

Nguyn nhn v bin php i ph vi chu k kinh t

nh|100px|phi|khung| nh|100px|phi|khung| Chu k kinh t khin cho k hoch kinh doanh ca khu vc t nhn v k hoch kinh t ca nh nc gp kh khn. Vic lm v lm pht cng thng bin ng theo chu k kinh t. c bit l trong nhng pha suy thoi, nn kinh t v x hi phi gnh chu nhng tn tht, chi ph khng l. V th, chng chu k l nhim v c nh nc t ra. Tuy nhin, v cch l gii nguyn nhn gy ra chu k gia cc trng phi kinh t hc v m khng ging nhau, nn bin php chng chu k m h xut cng khc nhau. Ch ngha Keynes cho rng chu k kinh t hnh thnh do th trng khng hon ho, khin cho tng cu bin ng m thnh. Do , bin php chng chu k l s dng chnh sch qun l tng cu. Khi nn kinh t thu hp, th s dng cc chnh sch ti chnh v chnh sch tin t ni lng. Khi nn kinh t khuch trng th li chuyn hng cc chnh sch sang tht cht. Hnh 1 minh ha mt s suy thoi do tng cu gim: tng cu dch chuyn t AD sang AD' khin cho sn lng gim t Q xung Q' v gi c gim t P n P' (lm pht gim). Cc trng phi theo ch ngha kinh t t do mi th cho rng s d c chu k l do s can thip ca chnh ph hoc do nhng c sc cung ngoi d tnh. V th, khng xy ra chu k hoc nn kinh t nhanh chng iu chnh sau cc c sc cung, chnh ph khng nn can thip g c. Hnh 2 minh ha mt trng hp suy thoi do tng cung gim: v l do no (v d gi u vo tng t bin) tng cung gim t AS xung AS' khin cho sn lng gim t Q xung Q' nhng gi c li tng t P ln P' (lm pht tng). Mt s l thuyt chnh l gii nguyn nhn ca chu k kinh t l: L thuyt tin t: cho rng chu k kinh t l do s m rng hay tht cht ca chnh sch tin t v tn dng. i din tiu biu ca l thuyt ny l nh kinh t hc ot gii Nobel kinh t nm 1976, ngi ng u trng phi Chicago Milton Friedman. L thuyt ny t ra ph hp vi cuc suy thoi ca kinh t Hoa K 1981-1982 khi Cc D tr Lin bang tng li sut danh ngha ti 18% chng lm pht. M hnh gia tc - s nhn: do Paul Samuelson a ra, m hnh ny cho rng cc bin ng ngoi sinh c lan truyn theo c ch s nhn kt hp vi s gia tc trong u t to ra nhng dao ng c tnh chu k ca GDP. L thuyt chnh tr: i din l cc nh kinh t hc William Nordhaus, Micha Kalecki,... L thuyt ny quy cho cc chnh tr gia l nguyn nhn gy ra chu k kinh t v h hng cc chnh sch ti kha v tin t c th thng c. L thuyt chu k kinh doanh cn bng: vi nhng i din nh Robert Lucas, Jr., Robert Barro, Thomas Sargent...pht biu rng nhng nhn thc sai lm v s vn ng ca gi c, tin lng khin cho cung v lao ng qu nhiu hoc qu t dn n cc chu k ca sn lng v vic lm. Mt trong nhng phin bn ca l thuyt ny l t l tht nghip cao trong suy thoi l do mc lng thc t ca cng nhn cao hn mc cn bng ca th trng lao ng. L thuyt chu k kinh doanh thc t: lp lun rng nhng bin ng tch cc hay tiu cc v nng sut lao ng trong mt khu vc c th lan ta trong nn kinh t v gy ra nhng dao ng c tnh chu k. Nhng ngi ng h l thuyt ny l nh kinh t hc ot gii Nobel nm 2004 Edward Prescott, Charles Prosser,... Tuy vy, cho d mi l thuyt trn y u c tnh hin thc, khng c l thuyt no t ra ng n mi lc, mi ni. Ngy nay, quan st cc chu k kinh t cc nn kinh t cng nghip pht trin, ngi ta pht hin ra hin tng pha suy thoi cng ngy cng ngn v thi gian v nh v mc thu hp ca GDP thc t. Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn quan trng l chnh ph cc nc ny hiu bit v vn dng tt hn nhng hiu bit v kinh t v m. Bng cch kt hp gia chnh sch ti kha v chnh sch tin t, nh nc c th ngn chn mt cuc suy thoi bin thnh khng hong. Chu k kinh doanh khc lit tn ph ch ngha t bn trong nhng thi k u ca ch ngha t bn c ch ng.[2]

Chu k kinh t

36

D bo chu k kinh t
Cc chuyn gia kinh t tm cch xy dng v pht trin cng c d bo nhng thay i trong nn kinh t. Nhng m hnh n gin nht da trn s liu d thu thp nh sn lng mt s t liu sn xut quan trng (thp,...), khi lng hng ha vn chuyn... ri cng thc ha s liu thng k a ra ch s c tnh cht d bo. Dn dn, vi s pht trin ca cng ngh thng tin, ngi ta xy dng nhng m hnh kinh t lng phc tp vi hng chc nghn bin s cng nhng h phng trnh phc tp d bo. i tin phong trong s pht trin cng c d bo l nhng nh kinh t hc Jan Tinbergen (gii Nobel nm 1969), Lawrence Klein (gii Nobel nm 1980). Nh , d bo bin ng kinh t v m c tin cy ln hn mc d n cha t chnh xc cao khi c nhng thay i v nhng chnh sch ln.

Cc loi chu k kinh t khc

Ngoi chu k kinh t nh va trnh by, kinh t hc cn ni n chu k Juglar, chu k Kuznets, chu k Kondratiev v chu k Kitchen[3]. Tuy nhin, ngy nay ngi ta hu nh khng dng cc chu k ny m t xu th bin ng kinh t na do chng khng cn ph hp vi iu kin hin i[cndnngun]. Kinh t chnh tr Marx-Lenin cho rng mt chu k kinh t ca nn kinh t t bn ch ngha gm bn pha l: khng hong, tiu iu, phc hi v hng thnh.

Tham kho
Samuelson Paul A., Nordhalls William D., Kinh t hc, NXB Ti chnh (2007)

Ch thch
[1] Samuelson Paul A., Tr. 353. [2] Samuelson Paul A., Tr. 364. [3] Korotayev Andrey V., Tsirel Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 20082009 Economic Crisis (http:/ / www. escholarship. org/ uc/ item/ 9jv108xp). Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.

Th loi:Kinh t hc v m

Chnh sch kinh t v m

37

Chnh sch kinh t v m

Chnh sch kinh t v m l cc chnh sch kinh t nhm mc ch n nh kinh t v m v t trng thi ton dng lao ng. Hai chnh sch kinh t v m quan trng l chnh sch ti chnh v chnh sch tin t. C th c mt s chnh sch kinh t khc cng c tc ng ti kinh t v m, nh chnh sch thng mi (quota, thu quan) song mc ch chnh ca chng khng phi l n nh kinh t v m, nn khng c coi l chnh sch kinh t v m. Chnh sch kinh t v m cn c gi l chnh sch qun l tng cu v n tc ng n pha cu ca nn kinh t. Chnh sch kinh t v m c ch ngha Keynes khuyn ngh s dng, tuy nhin li b ch ngha kinh t t do mi bi tr.

Chnh sch ti chnh

Xem bi chnh v Chnh sch ti chnh. Chnh sch ti chnh l chnh sch thng qua ch thu v u t cng cng tc ng ti nn kinh t. Khi nn kinh t ang pha suy thoi, nh nc c th gim thu, tng chi tiu (u t cng cng) chng li. Chnh sch ti chnh nh th gi l chnh sch ti chnh ni lng. Ngc li, khi nn kinh t pha bng n v c hin tng nng, th nh nc c th tng thu v gim chi tiu ca mnh ngn cho nn kinh t khi ri vo tnh trng qu nng dn ti v. Chnh sch ti chnh nh th ny gi l chnh sch ti chnh tht cht.

Chnh sch tin t

Xem bi chnh v Chnh sch tin t. Chnh sch tin t l qu trnh kim sot lng cung tin ca nn kinh t t c nhng mc ch nh kim ch lm pht, n nh t gi hi oi. Khi cn kch thch kinh t tng trng, ngn hng trung ng s lm tng lng cung tin. Chnh sch tin t th ny gi l ni lng tin t. Ngc li, khi cn h nhit cho nn kinh t, chng lm pht, ngn hng trung ng s lm gim lng cung tin. Chnh sch tin t khi gi l tht cht tin t.

Chnh sch ty v chnh sch c quy tc

Chnh sch ty cho php cc nh lp chnh sch phn ng nhanh chng vi nhng tnh hung xy ra. Tuy nhin, chnh sch ty d dn ti hin tng khng nht qun theo thi gian. Chng hn, chnh ph c th tuyn b s nng li sut khng hn ch kim ch lm pht, nhng sau li khng lm nh vy. Nhng hnh ng nh th s khin cc c nhn mt lng tin vo chnh ph. iu ny c th dn ti chnh sch ca chnh ph s mt dn hiu lc. Chnh sch c quy tc s gip thu c lng tin do n minh bch hn v d d on hn. Vn l kh c th tnh ton chnh xc khi xy dng cc quy tc. Chnh sch kinh t v m th loi:kinh t hc v m th loi:chnh sch kinh t th loi:thut ng kinh t

Chnh sch ti chnh

38

Chnh sch ti chnh

Chnh sch ti kha (fiscal policy) trong kinh t hc v m l chnh sch thng qua ch thu v u t cng cng tc ng ti nn kinh t. Chnh sch ti kha cng vi chnh sch tin t l cc chnh sch kinh t v m quan trng, nhm n nh v pht trin kinh t.

Tc dng
Chnh sch ti kho: Khi nn kinh t ang tnh trng suy thoi, nh nc c th gim thu, tng chi tiu (u t cng cng) chng li. Chnh sch ti chnh nh th gi l chnh sch ti chnh ni lng. Ngc li, khi nn kinh t tnh trng lm pht v c hin tng nng, th nh nc c th tng thu v gim chi tiu ca mnh ngn cho nn kinh t khi ri vo tnh trng qu nng dn ti v. Chnh sch ti kha nh th ny gi l chnh sch ti kha tht cht.

Tranh lun v hiu qu

Hiu qu ca chnh sch ti kha qua phn tch IS-LM
Xem bi chnh v phn tch IS-LM Cc trng phi kinh t hc Keynes cho rng chnh sch ti kha c hiu qu to ln trong chng chu k kinh t. H s dng phn tch IS-LM cho thy chnh sch ti kha pht huy tc dng thng qua s dch chuyn ca ng IS th no. Bn thn John Maynard Keynes cao chnh sch ti kha thng qua cng c chi tiu chnh ph. Tuy nhin, da vo phn tch IS-LM c th thy chnh sch ti kha pht huy tc dng hon ton khi ng IS dc xung pha phi ct ng LM on nm ngang, v pht huy tc dng khng hon ton khi ng IS ct ng LM on dc ln pha phi. Cn khi ng IS ct ng LM on thng ng, chnh sch ti chnh khng h c tc dng. Gi d nh nc thc hin chnh sch ti kha ni lng, ng IS s dch song song sang pha phi. Phn tch IS-LM cho thy li sut thc t s tng ln, gy kh khn cho cc hng i vay u t m rng sn xut. Hin tng chnh sch ti kha khng pht huy hiu qu hay pht huy khng y nh th ny gi l hin tng ht ra.

Hiu qu trong nn kinh t m

Trong nn kinh t m, hiu qu ca chnh sch ti kha ph thuc vo ch t gi hi oi. Nu l ch t gi hi oi c nh, chnh sch ti chnh s pht huy hiu qu. Cn nu l ch t gi hi oi th ni, chnh sch ti chnh(chnh sch ti kha) s khng c hiu lc do nhng thay i t gi gy ra bi chnh sch ti chnh s trit tiu hiu qu ca chnh sch.

Thuyt cn bng Barro-Ricardo

Xem bi chnh v Cn bng Ricard Nh nc thc hin chnh sch ti chnh ni lng bng cch tng chi tiu chnh ph. Nhng c ngun ti chnh cho cc khon chi tiu , nh nc li pht hnh cng tri v tri phiu. Robert Barro khng nh: ngi ta, vi k vng hp l (rational expectations), s hiu rng hm nay nh nc i vay th tng lai nh nc s tng thu c tin tr n, nn s gim tiu dng v tng tit kim hm nay tng lai c tin np thu. Nh th, tuy nh nc tng tiu dng ca mnh, nhng li lm gim tiu dng c nhn, nn hiu qu ca chnh sch ti chnh s khng cao nh nh nc mong i.

Chnh sch ti chnh

39

Nhng tr ngi v chnh tr

nhiu nc, chnh ph mun tin hnh u t (chi tiu chnh ph) thng phi xin quc hi ph duyt. Kh nng b quc hi bc b khng phi l khng c. V th, khng phi c mun thc hin chnh sch ti chnh ni lng thng qua tng chi tiu chnh ph l lun c th lm c. Mt khc khi chi v tin hnh u t ri, m li mun thc hin chnh sch ti chnh tht cht li cng kh khn v khng th b d cc cng trnh u t ang trin khai c. Thc hin chnh sch ti chnh ni lng thng qua gim thu th d. Nhng khi mun thc hin chnh sch ti chnh tht cht thng qua tng thu li rt d b ngi dn phn i.

tr trong pht huy hiu qu ca chnh sch ti chnh

Chnh ph mun thc hin chnh sch ti chnh ni lng bng cch tng chi tiu chnh ph. Gi s c quc hi thng qua th cng mt thi gian ch i quc hi xem xt tho lun. Sau , trin khai cn phi tin hnh cc hot ng nh lp k hoch d n, kho st-thit k trin khai u t. Nhng vic ny cng mt khng t thi gian. Chnh v vy, c mt tr chnh sch ti chnh ni lng bt u pht huy tc dng.

Kch cu
Kch cu l bin php y mnh chi tiu rng ca chnh ph (hay cn gi tiu dng cng cng) lm tng tng cu, kch thch tng trng kinh t.

Khi qut
Bin php kch cu c th c th l gim thu hoc tng chi tiu hoc c hai. Kch cu thng ch c dng khi nn kinh t lm vo tr tr hay suy thoi, ang cn vc dy. Kch cu c bit hay c s dng khi nn kinh t ri vo trng thi by thanh khon, l khi m chnh sch tin t tr nn mt hiu lc v li sut qu thp.[1][2] Kch cu i khi cn c gi l chnh sch Keynes v bin php ny tc ng ti tng cu. Trong cun L thuyt tng qut v vic lm, li sut v tin t, John Maynard Keynes cng nhc n vic "chi tiu thm ht" khi cn thit gip nn kinh t khi suy thoi. T tng ca Keynes l nu cn, chnh ph c th chi tiu ngn sch mnh n mc dn ti thm ht c ngn sch nh nc kch thch tng cu.[3]

S dng
Theo nh kinh t Lawrence Summers, bin php kch cu c hiu qu th vic thc hin n phi m bo: ng lc, trng ch v va .[1][4][5] ng lc tc l phi thc hin kch cu ngay khi cc doanh nghip cha thu hp sn xut v cc h gia nh cha thu hp tiu dng. Nu thc hin sm qu, kch cu c th lm cho nn kinh t tr nn nng v tng p lc lm pht. Nhng nu thc hin chm qu, th hiu qu ca kch cu s gim. Vic thc hin kch cu ng lc cng phi c ch nu cc qu trnh chnh tr v hnh chnh cho mt gi kch cu c ph duyt v trin khai l phc tp. Thng th chnh ph phi trnh quc hi k hoch kch cu v phi c c quan lp php ti cao ny thng qua. V, khng phi lc no cng vic ny cng sun s. Tuy nhin, thch thc ln nht i vi vic thc hin kch cu ng lc chnh l s thiu chnh xc trong xc nh thi im chuyn pha ca chu k kinh t. C trng hp kinh t chuyn hn sang pha suy thoi mt thi gian ri m cng tc thu thp v phn tch s liu thng k khng kh nng phn on ra.[1][6] Trng ch tc l hng ti nhng ch th kinh t no tiu dng nhanh hn khon ti chnh c hng nh kch cu v do sm gy ra tc ng lan ta ti tng cu hn; ng thi hng ti nhng ch th kinh t no b tc ng bt li hn c bi suy thoi kinh t. Thng th l nhng ch th kinh t c thu nhp thp hn. Ngi c thu nhp cao

Kch cu thng t gim tiu dng hn so vi ngi c thu nhp thp trong thi k kinh t quc dn kh khn. Vic h tr cc gia nh c thu nhp thp h khng phi gim tiu dng hay thm ch cn tng tiu dng s to ra hiu ng lan ta, kch thch doanh nghip m rng sn xut v thu mn thm lao ng.[1] kch cu trng ich, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch thng da vo cc m hnh kinh t lng m phng hiu qu ca gi kch cu qua cc kch bn khc nhau tng ng vi cc mc tiu khc nhau, t tm ra mc tiu hp l nht. Va tc l gi kch cu s ht hiu lc khi nn kinh t tr nn tt hn. Nu gi kch cu qu b th kch thch s b ht hi v tng cu c th khng b kch thch na, khin cho gi kch cu tr thnh lng ph. Ngc li gi kch cu ln qua to ra tc ng ko di khin cho nn kinh t hi phc m vn trong trng thi tip tc c kch thch th s dn ti kinh t m rng qu mc, lm pht tng ln. iu ny cng c ch nu ngn sch nh nc v d tr ngoi hi nh nc khng d dt.

40

Gim thu v tng chi tiu

Trong hai loi bin php c th l gim thu v tng chi tiu ngn sch nh nc, bin php th hai c cho rng c hiu sut kch thch tng cu cao hn.[5][7]

Phn i v ng h
Vic s dng kch cu nh mt cng c chnh sch n nh kinh t v m nhn c c s ng h ln phn i. Cuc tranh lun v hiu qu kch cu nm trong mt cuc tranh lun ln hn v hiu qu ca chnh sch ti chnh v cuc tranh lun v gia chnh sch ti chnh v chnh sch tin t th ng no c hiu sut bnh n kinh t v m cao hn. Nhng ngi phn i kch cu a ra lun im rng v chnh ph khng c kh nng xc nh chnh xc thi im, mc tiu v lng ca gi kch cu, nn kch cu khng nhng khng hiu qu m cn em li thm ht ngn sch nh nc v h qu tip theo l n chnh ph gia tng. C lun im na cho rng khi chnh ph pht hnh tri phiu huy ng ti chnh cho kch cu, li sut trn th trng s tng ln lm c ch u t ca x nghip v tiu dng ca c nhn. C lun im cn i xa hn, vin n l lun ca Robert Barro (1974)[8] v vic mt ch th kinh t in hnh c th suy ngh rng hm nay chnh ph cho mnh (c th bng gim thu hoc chuyn khon qua tng chi tiu chnh ph) tc l hm nay chnh ph phi i vay, ngy mai chnh ph phi tr n vay th chnh ph s li ly ca mnh bng cch tng thu. Nhng ngi ng h kch cu v rng hn l ng h chnh sch ti chnh th cho rng nn kinh t tn ti nhng ci bt hon ho m mt trong s l ngi tiu dng - nht l nhng ngi c thu nhp thp - v l do ny hay khc (chng hn nh v khng thng tin, v khng c cng c ti chnh, v khng c d tnh duy l, v.v...) khng th n nh tiu dng ca mnh. Mt b phn ln dn c l nhng ngi "c tin tr th mi dm tiu dng". Chnh v vy, mt s ct gim thu tm thi hay chuyn khon ti chnh c th gip nhng ngi ny n nh tiu dng, v do n nh kinh t v m.[9]

Kch cu

41

Tham kho
[1] * Douglas W. Elmendorf and Jason Furman, " If, When, How: A Primer on Fiscal Stimulus, (http:/ / www. brookings. edu/ ~/ media/ Files/ rc/ papers/ 2008/ 0110_fiscal_stimulus_elmendorf_furman/ 0110_fiscal_stimulus_elmendorf_furman. pdf)" Strategy paper, the Brookings Institution, January 2008. [2] The Economist, " The next front is fiscal, (http:/ / www. economist. com/ opinion/ displaystory. cfm?story_id=12511161)" 30 thng 10, 2008. [3] The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. (http:/ / www. marxists. org/ reference/ subject/ economics/ keynes/ general-theory/ ) [4] Lawrence Summers, " Why America must have a fiscal stimulus, (http:/ / www. ft. com/ cms/ s/ 3b3bd570-bc76-11dc-bcf9-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false. html?_i_location=http:/ / www. ft. com/ cms/ s/ 0/ 3b3bd570-bc76-11dc-bcf9-0000779fd2ac. html& _i_referer=http:/ / www. cbpp. org/ 1-8-08bud. htm)" Financial Times, January 6, 2008. [5] Chad Stone and Kris Cox, " Economic policy in a weakening economy: Principles for Fiscal Stimulus, (http:/ / www. cbpp. org/ 1-8-08bud. pdf)" Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 11 thng 1, 2008 [6] Dynan, Karen E. and Douglas W. Elmendorf, " Do Provisional Estimates of Output Miss Economic Turning Points? (http:/ / www. federalreserve. gov/ pubs/ feds/ 2001/ 200152/ 200152pap. pdf)" Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52. thng 11 nm 2001. [7] Peter Orszag and Joseph Stiglitz, Tax Cuts Are Not Automatically the Best Stimulus: A Response to Glenn Hubbard, (http:/ / www. cbpp. org/ 11-27-01tax. htm) Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 27 thng 11, 2001. [8] Barro, Robert J., " Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? (http:/ / hussonet. free. fr/ barro74. pdf)" Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec. [9] Mankiw, N. Gregory, " The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy, (http:/ / www. economics. harvard. edu/ faculty/ mankiw/ files/ savers_c. pdf)" American Economic Review, vol. 90, no. 2, pp. 120-25, thng 5 nm 2000.

Lin kt ngoi
Alasdair Scott, " Making Fiscal Stimulus Effective During Downturns, (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ survey/so/2008/RES100208B.htm)" IMFSurvey Magazine: IMF Research. Jason Furman, " Fiscal Stimulus and Poverty, (http://www.stanford.edu/group/scspi/pdfs/pathways/ summer_2008/Furman.pdf)" Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, " Fiscal Stimulus: What should be done now, (http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/18683/fiscal_stimulus.html)" 20 thng 11, 2008. John H. Cochrane (2009), Fiscal Stimulus, Fiscal Inflation, or Fiscal Fallacies? (http://faculty.chicagobooth. edu/john.cochrane/research/Papers/fiscal2.htm) January 29. Eugene F. Fama (2009), Bailouts and Stimulus Plans (http://www.dimensional.com/famafrench/2009/01/ bailouts-and-stimulus-plans.html), January 13. Brad Delong (2009), Time to Bang My Head Against the Wall Some More (http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/ 2009/01/time-to-bang-my-head-against-the-wall-some-more-pre-elementary-monetary-economics-department. html), January 26. Paul Krugman (2009), A Dark Age of macroeconomics (wonkish) (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/ 01/27/a-dark-age-of-macroeconomics-wonkish/), January 27. Th loi:Chnh sch kinh t Th loi:Kinh t hc v m Th loi:Kinh t hc cng cng

Tin c s

42

Tin c s
Tin c s l thut ng kinh t ch loi tin c mc thanh khon cao nht trong cc thnh phn ca cung tin. Tin c s bao gm tin mt trong lu thng do cc c nhn (h gia nh v doanh nghip khng phi ngn hng nm gi) v d tr bt buc ca ngn hng thng mi ti ngn hng trung ng. Mi s thay i ca lng tin c s u l tc nhn quan trng gy ra thay i trong tng lng cung tin. Chnh v vy, tin c s cn c gi l tin c mnh lc.

Tin c s v cung tin

Lng cung tin (M) bng lng tin c s (MB) nhn vi s nhn tin t (m). M = m MB Trong trng hp s nhn tin t khng i, thay i ca tng lng cung tin ph thuc vo thay i trong lng tin c s. Khi s nhn tin t bng 1, mc thay i lng cung tin ng bng mc thay i lng tin c s.

Nhng nhn t tc ng ti lng tin c s

M hnh n gin m t s thay i ca tin c s xut pht t khi nim v tin c s vi ng thc: MB = C + R trong C l lng tin mt trong lu thng v R l d tr bt buc. Nhng nhn t lm thay i lng tin mt trong lu thng hoc/v thay i d tr bt buc ca ngn hng thng mi ti ngn hng trung ng u c th lm thay i lng tin c s. V mc d tr bt buc bng lng tin gi trong cc ngn hng thng mi nhn vi t l d tr bt buc, nn ta c tip ng thc: MB = C + Dr trong D l lng tin gi trong h thng ngn hng thng mi, cn r l t l d tr bt buc do ngn hng trung ng kim sot. Gi d cc nhn t cn li khng i, mi thay i ca mt trong ba nhn t trn u lm lng tin c s thay i cng chiu. V vy, tng lng tin c s, ngn hng trung ng c th: Tng lng tin mt trong lu thng, chng hn bng nghip v th trng m mua vo (ngn hng trung ng mua cng tri vo bm tin mt ra lu thng), hay n gin l in thm tin giy, c thm tin kim loi v a vo lu thng.aa Nng t l d tr bt buc. Can thip iu chnh li sut huy ng tin gi ca cc ngn hng thng mi bng cch nh iu chnh li sut chit khu. Lu l hai bin php sau khng ch lm thay i lng tin c s m cn u lm thay i s nhn tin t, v vy chng l nhng bin php mnh trong chnh sch tin t v hin nay t cn c s dng. i vi bin php th nht, vic in v c tin cng c th gp hn ch bi quy nh ca php lut mt s quc gia. Tin c s Th loi:Kinh t hc tin t

S nhn tin t

43

S nhn tin t
S nhn tin t, cn gi l s nhn tn dng, o lng mc m ngn hng thng mi lm tng cung tin. S nhn ny bng t s gia tng lng cung tin v lng cung tin c mnh lc. K hiu: m l s nhn tin t M l tng lng cung tin H l lng cung tin c mnh lc C l lng tin mt D l lng tin gi R l lng tin m cc ngn hng thng mi phi d tr v trong ti khon ca h ti ngn hng trung ng

Cng thc tnh lng cung tin: m = M / H = (C+D) / (C+R) V ngn hng thng mi ch phi d tr ti ti khon ca h ngn hng trung ng mt phn s tin gi vo ngn hng ca h, nn R nh hn D. Do , m ln hn 1. H tng bao nhiu s lm cho tng lng cung tin tng nhiu hn th.

44

Nn kinh t m trong ngn hn

M hnh Mundell-Fleming
[1] Xin hy cng ng gp cho bi hoc on ny bng cch pht trin n. Nu bi vit c pht trin xin hy loi b bn mu ny.

M hnh Mundell-Fleming (The Mundell-Fleming model) l mt m hnh kinh t hc v m s dng 2 ng IS v LM phn tch tc ng ca cc chnh sch kinh t v m c thc hin trong mt nn kinh t m ca. M hnh mang tn 2 nh kinh t hc l Robert Mundell v John Marcus Fleming. y l m hnh l thuyt c Robert Mundell v Marcus Fleming pht trin mt cch c lp trong nhng nm 1960. M hnh cho thy mi quan h gia sn lng vi t gi hi oi danh ngha trong ngn hn.

Thit lp m hnh
nh|phi|200px|Hnh minh ha cch dng LM* nh|phi|200px|Hnh minh ha cch dng IS*

ng LM*
Cch dng LM*: Phng trnh LM* : M / P = L ( r* , Y ) ng LM* l ng LM trong th Y-e. ng LM* l mt ng thng ng, v t gi hi oi khng c a vo trong phng trnh ca LM*.

ng IS*
Cch dng IS* : Phng trnh ng IS* : Y = C ( Y - T ) + I ( r* ) + G + NX ( e ) ng IS* l ng IS th hin trong th Y-e. ng IS* dc xung v t gi hi oi cao hn lm gim xut khu rng ( NX ),qua lm gim tng thu nhp.

iu kin ca m hnh
Sn lng thc t nh hn sn lng tim nng. Gi c nh Nn kinh t nh, m ca.

Nn kinh t nh, t gi hi oi th ni
Chnh sch ti chnh(Chnh sch ti kha)
nh|phi|300px|nh hng ca chnh sch ti chnh m rng trong ngn hn,t gi hi oi th ni tng sn lng Y, chnh ph c th s dng chnh sch ti chnh m rng (tng chi tiu chnh ph hoc gim thu). Trong

M hnh Mundell-Fleming ngn hn, chi tiu chnh ph tng lm tng chi tiu hng ha trong nc (ng IS dch chuyn sang phi trong khi ng LM ng yn), dn n ng ni t ln gi so vi ngoi t (do nhu cu v ng ni t ln). ng ni t ln gi lm gim xut khu v tng nhp khu. Trong di hn, s gia tng ca t gi hi oi lm gim xut khu rng, l nguyn nhn lm mt nh hng ca s m rng tng cu trong nc v hng ha v dch v. iu ny lm trit tiu nh hng m rng ban u ca chnh sch ti chnh v a li sut trong nc v mc li sut th gii. Do vy: trong ngn hn, di ch t gi hi oi th ni v vn chu chuyn hon ho th chnh sch ti chnh hon ton khng c hiu lc trong vic iu tit tng cu ca nn kinh t.

45

Chnh sch tin t

nh|phi|300px|nh hng ca chnh sch tin t m rng trong ngn hn vi t gi hi oi th ni tng sn lng Y th chnh ph tng cung tin lm li sut trong nc tm thi gim xung so vi li sut nc ngoi, to ra mt dng vn ln chy ra nc ngoi. Chnh sch tin t m rng lm ng LM dch chuyn sang phi, cn ng IS th ng yn. Nh u t trong nc tm cch chuyn t ng ni t sang ng ngoi t, lm gi ca ng ni t gim. Trong di hn, t gi hi oi gim lm tng xut khu v lm gim nhp khu. Vic chuyn i ng ni t sang ng ngoi t din ra cho n khi t gi hi oi tng li sut trong nc tng ngang bng vi li sut nc ngoi. Do vy: Trong ngn hn, vi t gi hi oi th ni v vn chu chuyn hon ho th chnh sch tin t l c hiu qu.

Chnh sch thng mi

nh|tri|200px|nh hng ca chnh sch hn ch thng mi ti ng xut khu rng(NX) trong ngn hn. nh|phi|300px|nh hng ca chnh sch hn ch thng mi vi t gi hi oi th ni ,trong ngn hn Chnh ph dng bin php hn ch thng mi: Chnh ph ct gim nhu cu v hng nhp khu bng cch t ra hn ngch nhp khu hoc thu quan. Xut khu rng bng xut khu tr i nhp khu, gim nhp khu s lm cho tng t gi hi oi v tng xut khu rng, ng xut khu rng dch chuyn sang phi. ng xut khu rng (NX) dch chuyn sang phi lm cho ng IS dch chuyn sang phi. Do vy : Trong ngn hn, vi t gi hi oi th ni th bin php hn ch thng mi ch lm tng t gi hi oi m khng tc ng n sn lng Y.

Nn kinh t nh, t gi hi oi c nh
Chnh sch ti chnh
nh|phi|300px|nh hng ca chnh sch ti kha m rng trong iu kin t gi hi oi c nh Trong iu kin t gi hi oi c nh th chnh sch m rng ti chnh ca chnh ph s lm dch chuyn ng IS sang phi. duy tr t gi hi oi c nh th ngn hng trung ng phi tng cung tin, lm dch chuyn ng LM sang phi vi quy m tng ng. Do vy: Trong ngn hn, vi t gi hi oi c nh th chnh sch ti chnh m rng s lm tng sn lng Y.

M hnh Mundell-Fleming

46

Chnh sch tin t

nh|phi|300px|nh hng ca chnh sch tin t m rng trong iu kin t gi hi oi c nh Khi chnh ph s dng chnh sch tin t m rng bng vic tng cung tin s to p lc lm gim t gi hi oi, ng LM dch chuyn sang phi. gi cho t gi hi oi c nh th cung tin phi gim dn n ng LM phi dch chuyn sang tri v v tr ban u. Do vy: Trong ngn hn, vi t gi hi oi c nh th chnh sch tin t khng c hiu qu.

Chnh sch thng mi

nh|phi|300px|nh hng ca chnh sch hn ch thng mi trong iu kin t gi hi oi c nh Chnh ph s dng thu quan hoc hn ngch lm gim nhp khu (lm tng xut khu rng), lm dch chuyn ng IS sang phi. gi cho t gi hi oi c nh th chnh ph phi tng cung tin ln lm ng LM dch chuyn sang phi, sn lng Y tng ln. Do vy: Trong ngn hn vi t gi hi oi c nh th chnh sch thng mi l c hiu qu.

Vn khc
M hnh Mundell-Fleming nguyn gc r rng cng c nhng hn ch. Chng hn, nh tt c cc phn tch kinh t v m thi k , n a ra nhng gi thuyt n gin ha v k vng trn th trng ti chnh v tha nhn tnh cng nhc ca gi c trong ngn hn. Nhng thiu st ny c cc nh nghin cu sau chnh sa, h chng minh rng iu chnh gi dn dn v k vng hp l khng th kt hp vo cc phn tch m khng thay i ng k cc kt qu thu c.[2]

Lin kt
Mundell - Fleming model [3]

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / vi. wikipedia. org/ w/ index. php?title=M%C3%B4_h%C3%ACnh_Mundell-Fleming& action=edit [2] Nhng tng kinh t trng l ca th k 20 (Phn 30) (http:/ / 60s. com. vn/ kinhdoanh_detail/ / 1976022/ 25022009. aspx) [3] http:/ / www. vnmedia. se/ dict/ book/ e2v. 0. 66172. html

Tham kho
Bi ging v thc hnh KINH T V M 2 - PGS.TS NGUYN VN CNG - NXB LAO NG 2006 Th loi:Kinh t hc v m quc t Th loi:Cc m hnh kinh t hc

S DD-AA

47

S DD-AA
S DD-AA l s biu din c ch xc nh im cn bng v sn lng v t gi hi oi ca mt nn kinh t m. y l mt la chn khc thay th cho m hnh Mundell-Fleming. S DD-AA c xy dng trn c s kt hp hai ng cong DD th hin cc im cn bng trn th trng sn lng v AA th hin cc im cn bng trn th trng ti sn.

ng cong DD
va|phi|khung|T gi hi oi danh ngha tng khin sn lng cn bng tng theo s dch chuyn dc theo ng DD. Y, I, G, P* tng hoc T, P gim lm sn lng cn bng tng theo s dch chuyn song song sang pha phi ca ng DD. ng cong DD th hin tp hp cc im cn bng trn th trng sn lng (ngha l tng cu bng tng cung). xy dng c ng DD, trc tin chng ta cn r c ch xc nh tng cu. Gi D l tng cu, Y l thu nhp quc dn, T l tng thu tthu, I l u t theo k hoch ca cc hng, G l chi tiu ca chnh ph, E l t gi hi oi danh ngha, P* l mc gi chung ca nc ngoi, P l mc gi chung trong nc. Khi ta c phng trnh tnh tng cu nh sau: D = D(Y,T,I,G,E,P*,P) trong , dD/dY>0, dD/dT<0, dD/dI>0, dD/dG>0, dD/dP*>0, dD/dP<0. Tng cu s tng khi xy ra mt hoc ng thi cc thay i sau: thu nhp quc dn tng ln, chnh ph gim thu, u t theo k hoch ca hng tng ln, chnh ph tng chi tiu, mc gi chung ca nc ngoi tng ln, mc gi chung trong nc gim xung. Gi nh, nn kinh t m trng thi cn bng, do tng cu bng tng cung. ng cong DD th hin s cn bng ny. Nh vy, DD c th b tc ng khi xy ra nhng thay i ni trn. Nu biu din DD trn mt trc ta hai chiu vi trc honh l cc mc sn lng cn bng, cn trc tung l cc mc t gi hi oi danh ngha, th vi bt c s thay i no ca t gi ta s c s dch chuyn dc theo ng DD. Cn vi bt c s thay i no ca cc nhn t cn li (Y, T, I, G, P*, P) ta s c s dch chuyn ca chnh ng DD.

ng cong AA
va|phi|khung|ng cong AA dc xung pha phi. T gi hi oi tng lm sn lng gim xung vi s di chuyn dc theo ng AA. Khi sn lng c nh, cung tin tng, mc gi chung trong nc gim, gi tr k vng tng lai ca t gi tng, li sut cc khon tin gi bng ngoi t tng u lm t gi hi oi tng vi ng AA dch song song sang pha phi. ng cong AA th hin tp hp cc im cn bng trn th trng ti sn (cn bng ng thi c th trng ngoi hi ln th trng tin t trong nc). Cn bng trn th trng ngoi hi c th din t bng phng trnh sau: R = R* + (e(E) -E)/E (2) trong R l li sut ca cc khon tin gi bng ni t, R* l li sut ca cc khon tin gi bng ngoi t, e(E) l gi tr k vng tng lai ca t gi hi oi danh ngha, E l t gi hi oi danh ngha. Cn bng trn th trng tin t trong nc c th din t bng phng trnh sau: M/P = L(R,Y) (3) trong M l cung tin trong nc, P l mc gi chung trong nc, Y l sn lng (tng cung bng tng cu). T (2) v (3) ta c: E = E(M,R*,e(E),Y,P) (4) vi dE/dY<0, dE/dM>0, dE/dP<0, dE/de(E)>0, de/dR*>0.

S DD-AA Da vo quan h dE/dY<0 xy dng ng AA trn mt trc ta vi trc honh l sn lng (Y) v trc tung l t gi hi oi danh ngha (E), ta thy ng AA phi l mt ng dc xung pha phi. H t gi hi oi tng th Y s gim v ngc li. y l mt s dch chuyn dc theo ng AA. Cc nhn t khc thay i ngoi tr sn lng c nh u s lm t gi hi oi thay i. y l s thay i bng dch chuyn bn thn ng AA.

48

S DD-AA
va|phi|khung|S DD-AA gip xc nh sn lng v t gi cn bng trong ngn hnGhp hai ng DD v AA vo cng mt trc ta , ta c s DD-AA. Giao im ca hai ng chnh l im cn bng ng thi c th trng sn lng (mc sn lng trng thi ton dng lao ng) ln th trng ti sn (t gi hi oi danh ngha mc di hn ca n).

Nhng thay i trong chnh sch ti kha

Mt thay i ngn hn ca chnh sch ti kha, chng hn tng chi tiu chnh ph, hoc gim thu, hoc c hai s lm ng DD dch chuyn sang pha phi. Ti im cn bng mi (giao im mi gia ng DD dch chuyn v ng AA), mc sn lng cao hn, t gi gim xung (ni t ln gi). Nu nhng thay i nh th din ra lin tc, d tnh v t gi hi oi s thay i, khin cho ng AA cng b dch chuyn v sang pha tri, trong khi ng DD vn dch chuyn sang phi. Kt qu l ti im cn bng mi (giao im ca hai ng dch chuyn), mc sn lng vn nh c, ch c t gi hi oi thay i (gim xung).

Nhng thay i trong chnh sch tin t

Khi ngn hng trung ng thc hin chnh sch tin t ni lng bng cch tng lng cung tin, ng AA s dch chuyn sang phi trong khi ng DD gi nguyn. Kt qu l sn lng tng v t gi hi oi cng tng (ni t mt gi). Nu ngn hng trung ng thc hin chnh sch nh th trong mt thi gian di, th ng DD cng s dch chuyn v sang pha tri (do mc gi trong nc tng ln). ng AA sau khi dch chuyn sang pha phi khi ngn hng trung ng mi tng cung tin s bt u dch chuyn ngc li v pha tri (do d tnh t gi thay i). C hai ng s ngng dch chuyn khi mc sn lng quay tr li mc cn bng trc khi c thay i trong chnh sch tin t. T gi hi oi trong di hn s mc cao hn so vi trc khi thay i chnh sch, nhng li thp hn so vi mc khi mi thay i chnh sch (ngn hn). V th, c th ni, nhng thay i lu di trong chnh sch tin t khng tc ng ti sn lng v ch tc ng phn no ti t gi. Hin tng t gi trong ngn hn tng ln cao hn mc di hn ca n c gi l hin tng t gi tng qu mc (xem thm M hnh t gi tng qu mc)

Tham kho
Krugman, P.R. and Obstfeld, M. (2003), International Economics: Theory and Policy, Sixth Edition, Addison Wesley.

Lin kt ngoi
Krugman, Paul (2001), Crisis: The Next Generation [1] th loi:kinh t hc v m quc t th loi:cc ng cong kinh t hc th loi:cc m hnh kinh t hc

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / sapir. tau. ac. il/ papers/ sapir_conferences/ Krugman. pdf

B ba chnh sch khng th ng thi

49

B ba chnh sch khng th ng thi

Trong kinh t hc, B ba chnh sch khng th ng thi (cn gi: b ba bt kh thi, tam nan kinh t) ch mt gi thuyt kinh t cho rng khng th thc hin ng thi ba chnh sch gm ch t gi hi oi c nh, chnh sch tin t c lp n nh gi c v t do lu chuyn vn. Ch c th thc hin ng thi hai trong ba chnh sch ny m thi. Thut ng ny cn dng ch tnh th kinh t d v khi m mt quc gia c tnh thi hnh ba chnh sch trn cng lc. Cc l lun kinh t nh s DD-AA hay m hnh Mundell-Fleming u ch ra quan h gia chnh sch tin t v t gi hi oi vi gi nh l vn c t do lu chuyn qua bin gii quc gia. Khi ngn hng trung ng thc hin chnh sch tin t ni lng th t gi hi oi s tng ln, khi thc hin chnh sch tin t tht cht th t gi gim i. Nh th, nu thc hin mt ch t gi c nh, th chnh sch tin t khng th thay i linh hot c. Gi s mt nc c gng thc hin c ba chnh sch trn ng thi. Khi kinh t tng trng nhanh, vn nc ngoi s chy vo trong nc gy ra p lc tng gi ni t. Khi , ngn hng trung ng mun bo v ch t gi c nh th phi thc hin chnh sch tin t ni lng. Song iu ny c th lm tng lng cung tin trong lu thng dn n tng tc lm pht. Mun lm pht khng tng tc, th phi thc hin chnh sch thanh khon i ng. Song nh th th vn nc ngoi cng chy vo nhiu. u thp nin 1990, mt s nc chu c gng thc hin ng thi ba chnh sch v hu qu l ri vo khng hong.

Lin kt ngoi
The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility [1] (pdf). Bi vit mi trn Thi bo kinh t Si Gn [2] Th loi:kinh t hc v m quc t Th loi:kinh t hc v m

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / papers. nber. org/ papers/ w10396. pdf [2] http:/ / www. saigontimes. com. vn/ tbktsg/ detail. asp?muc=205& Sobao=861& sott=26

Chnh sch thanh khon i ng

50

Chnh sch thanh khon i ng

Chnh sch thanh khon i ng, cn gi theo cch khc l chnh sch v hiu ha, l chnh sch thu hi bt ni t t lu thng nhm v hiu ha hoc gim thiu nh hng tiu cc ca vic thu mua ngoi t ti gi tr ni t. Trong mt s trng hp, Nh nc c th quyt nh thu mua ngoi t trn th trng. Chng hn, khi ni t ln gi so vi ngoi t, Nh nc c th thy cn ngn chn hoc gim tc ca hin tng ny, th Nh nc s mua ngoi t vo. Hoc chng hn nh, khi u t nc ngoi vo nn kinh t, cc nh u t c yu cu mang vn bng ngoi t vo v gi vo ti khon m trong nc v rt ra mua my mc thit b, nguyn vt liu v nhn cng bng ni t. Nh nc s phi thu mua s ngoi t nh u t c ni t s dng. Trong nhng trng hp nh vy, lng cung ni t u tng ln v to ra p lc tng mc gi chung, tc l lm tng tc lm pht. chng li nh hng ngoi lai tiu cc ca cc quyt nh thu mua ngoi t nh th, Nh nc c th trin khai ng thi bin php thu ni t v, thng thng l bng cch bn ra mt lng tri phiu chnh ph trung v di hn.

51

Nn kinh t trong di hn
Tng cung
Tng cung, trong kinh t hc, l tng lng cung cp hng ha cui cng ca ton b nn kinh t. Khi tnh tng cung, cc nh kinh t hc loi tr lng cung cp cc hng ha trung gian dng lm u vo cho sn xut. Doanh thu t bn tt c cc loi hng ha m tr i phn doanh thu t bn hng ha trung gian chnh l phn gi tr gia tng. Chnh v th, tng cung cng chnh l tng gi tr gia tng ca ton b nn kinh t. Gi tr gia tng dng lm tin cng tr cho ngi lao ng v lm li nhun cho nh u t. Chnh v th, tng cung cng l thu nhp quc dn. Kinh t hc trng cung ch trng rng, qun l tng cung l ng li ch yu t c tng trng kinh t. iu ny i lp vi quan im ca ch ngha Keynes trng th chnh sch qun l tng cu. Trong trnh by l lun kinh t hc, cc nh kinh t hc hay dng ng tng cung (ng AS) biu din s thay i ca tng cung. Nobelpricewinner Prof. William Vickrey: 15 fatal fallacies of financial fundamentalism-A Disquisition on Demand Side Economics [1] Tng cung Th loi:Kinh t hc v m

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / www. columbia. edu/ dlc/ wp/ econ/ vickrey. html

Tng cu

52

Tng cu
Tng cu, trong kinh t hc, l lng nhu cu c kh nng ti chnh ca ton b nn kinh t i vi cc hng ha cui cng. Tng cu bao gm nhu cu trong nc v nhu cu nc ngoi. Nhu cu trong nc li bao gm u t ca x nghip, tiu dng ca c nhn, chi tiu rng ca chnh ph (chnh lch gia chi tiu chnh ph v thu ca chnh ph t thu). Nhu cu nc ngoi chnh l xut khu rng (chnh lch gia xut khu v nhp khu). Gi nh rng, trong ton nn kinh t, ton b tit kim s c s dng u t. Khi , tng cu cng chnh l thu nhp quc dn Ch ngha Keynes cho rng nu qun l c tng cu th s gi c n nh kinh t v m v t c tng trng kinh t ti u. Hot ng ny gi l chnh sch qun l tng cu hay chnh sch Keynes, vi hai phng tin chnh l chnh sch ti chnh v chnh sch tin t. Ch trng ny i lp vi quan im ca kinh t hc trng cung trng th ci cch mt cung ca nn kinh t. Trong trnh by l lun kinh t hc, cc nh kinh t hc hay dng ng tng cu (ng AD) biu din s thay i ca tng cu. Tng cu th loi:kinh t hc v m

M hnh tng cu v tng cung

M hnh tng cu v tng cung hay cn gi l m hnh AD-AS l m hnh dng gii thch hai bin s. Bin s th nht l tng sn lng hng ha v dch v c o bng GDP thc t. Bin s th hai l mc gi c o bng ch s gi tiu dng CPI hay ch s iu chnh GDP.

Tng cu ca nn kinh t
Khi nim
Tng cu l lng hng ha v dch v c to ra trn lnh th mt nc(GDP) m cc tc nhn kinh t sn sng v c kh nng mua ti mi mc gi. Trong nn kinh t m th tng cu bao gm 4 nhn t: C: Tiu dng ca cc h gia nh I: u t ca doanh nghip G: Chi tiu ca chnh ph NX: Xut khu rng

M hnh tng cu v tng cung

53

Phng trnh
Phng trnh ng tng cu trong mt nn kinh t m c dng: AD = C + I + G + NX

ng tng cu
nh|phi|300px|ng tng cu(AD)

dc ca ng tng cu
ng tng cu dc xung. c gii thch bi nh hng ca gi i vi tiu dng, u t, xut khu rng: Mc gi v tiu dng(Hiu ng Pigou): vi mc gi thp, lng tin m cc h gia nh nm gi c gi tr hn, cc h gia nh cm thy giu c hn nn h chi tiu nhiu hn trc => tng tiu dng. Mc gi v u t (hiu ng Keynes): Vi mc gi thp cc h gia nh cn gi t tin hn tiu dng. Nn h cho vay s tin tha, lm li sut gim => kch thch u t. Mc gi v xut khu rng(Hiu ng t gi hi oi): vi mc gi thp, lm cho hng trong nc r tng i so vi hng ngoi. iu ny c tc dng khuyn khch xut khu, hn ch nhp khu =>tng xut khu rng. =>Kt lun: C ba hiu ng ny cho thy mi quan h ngc chiu gia gi v sn lng hng ha. Hay: ng tng cu dc xung.

ng tng cu dch chuyn

ng tng cu s dch chuyn khi c s thay i v lng tng cu ti mi mc gi.

Tng cung ca nn kinh t

Khi nim
Tng cung l lng hng ha v dch v c cung ng trn th trng. N th hin mi quan h gia mc gi chung v khi lng hng ha c cung ng. Tng cung di hn - ASLR Tng cung ngn hn - AS

Tng cung di hn - ASLR

nh|phi|300px|ng tng cung di hn ng tng cung v hng ha, dch v trong di hn (ASLR) thng ng ti mc sn lng t nhin. Cung hng ha, dch v trong di hn ph thuc vo cng ngh, khi lng t bn, lc lng lao ng sn c. Cung hng ha, dch v trong di hn khng ph thuc vo mc gi trong nn kinh t.

Tng cung ngn hn - AS

nh|phi|300px|ng tng cung ngn hn - AS ng tng cung ngn hn dc ln. Phng trnh c bn v ng tng cung gn hn: Y = Y: sn lng : sn lng t nhin : s dng Pe: mc gi k vng P: gi thc t Kt lun rt ra t phng trnh: + ( P - Pe )

M hnh tng cu v tng cung ng tng cung c dc dng. V tr ca ng tng cung ph thuc vo Pe. V ng tng cung ngn hn ct ng tng cung di hn Pe. Do khi Pe tng th ng tng cung s dch chuyn ln trn v sang tri. Tham s o lng phn ng ca sn lng vi chnh lch gia gi c thc t v gi c k vng. = 0: ng tng cung c dng thng ng. rt ln: ng tng cung gn nh nm ngang. Mt s m hnh gii thch v ng tng cung ngn hn: M hnh tin lng cng nhc. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca cng nhn. M hnh thng tin khng hon ho. M hnh gi c cng nhc.

54

Cn bng cung-cu (cn bng sn lng v mc gi)

nh|phi|300px|Cn bng tng cung-tng cu

Vn dng gii thch Tham kho

Bi ging kinh t v m 2-PGS.TS Nguyn Vn Cng-Nh xut bn Lao ng 2006 Th loi:Cc m hnh kinh t hc Th_loi:Kinh t hc v m

ng cong Phillips
ng cong Phillips biu th quan h gia t l tht nghip v t l lm pht (ng cong Phillips phin bn lm pht) hoc gia t l tht nghip v tc tng trng GDP (ng cong Phillips phin bn GDP). ng ny c t theo tn Alban William Phillips, ngi m vo nm 1958 tin hnh nghin cu thc nghim da trn d liu ca nc Anh t nm 1861 n nm 1957 v pht hin ra tng quan m gia t l tht nghip v tc tng tin lng danh ngha [1].

L lun ca trng phi kinh t hc v m tng hp

va|phi|khung|ng cong Phillips dc xung pha phi Kinh t M thp nin 1960 c hin tng t l lm pht kh cao mc d tc tng trng GDP cng cao. gii thch hin tng , cc nh kinh t ca trng phi kinh t hc v m tng hp s dng kt qu nghin cu ca Phillips v dng nn ng cong Phillips dc xung pha phi trn mt th hai chiu vi trc honh l cc mc t l tht nghip v trc tung l cc mc t l lm pht. Trn ng ny l cc kt hp gia t l lm pht v t l tht nghip. Dc theo ng cong Phillips, h t l tht nghip gim xung th t l lm pht s tng ln; v ngc li. T , trng phi kinh t hc v m tng hp l lun rng gim t l tht nghip chnh ph s dng chnh sch qun l tng cu, song do t l tht nghip c quan h ngc chiu bn vng vi t l lm pht, nn tng trng kinh t cao ng nhin gy ra lm pht. Lm pht l ci gi phi tr gim t l tht nghip.

ng cong Phillips

55

L lun ca ch ngha tin t

va|phi|khung|ng cong Philips ngn hn v ng cong Phillips di hn Ch ngha tin t bc b l lun ni trn ca trng phi kinh t hc v m tng hp. H cho rng ng cong Phillips nh trn ch l ng cong Phillips ngn hn. Friedman a ra khi nim t l tht nghip t nhin, theo khi th trng lao ng trng thi cn bng vn c tht nghip. y l dng tht nghip t nguyn. V th, trng thi cn bng, t l tht nghip vn l mt s dng. V khi nn kinh t cn bng, th lm pht khng xy ra. ng cong Phillips ngn hn dc xung pha phi v ct trc honh gi tr ca t l tht nghip t nhin. H chnh ph p dng cc bin php nhm a t l tht nghip xung di mc ny, th gi c s tng ln (lm pht), v c s dch chuyn ln pha tri dc theo ng cong Phillips ngn hn. Sau khi lm pht tng tc, c nhn vi hnh vi kinh t in hnh (hnh vi duy l) s d tnh lm pht tip tc tng tc. Trong khi tin cng danh ngha khng i, lm pht tng ngha l tin cng thc t tr cho h gim i. H s gim cung cp lao ng, thm ch t nguyn tht nghip. T l tht nghip li tng ln n mc t l tht nghip t nhin, trong khi t l lm pht vn gi mc cao. Nu nh nc vn c gng gim t l tht nghip xung di mc t nhin, c ch nh trn li xy ra. Hu qu l, trong di hn, t l tht nghip vn mc t nhin m t l lm pht li b nng ln lin tc. Chnh sch ca nh nc nh vy l ch c tc dng trong ngn hn, cn v di hn l tht bi. Tp hp cc im tng ng vi t l tht nghip t nhin v cc mc t l lm pht lin tc b y ln cao to thnh mt ng thng ng. ng ny c gi l ng Phillips di hn.

Ch thch v Tham kho

^ Xem Phillips Alban W. (1958), "The relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of money wages in the UK 1861-1957," Economica.

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / vi. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ %C4%90%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Dng_cong_Phillips#endnote_no

Ton dng lao ng

56

Ton dng lao ng

Thng tin trong bi (hay on) ny khng th kim chng c do khng c ch gii t bt k ngun tham kho no. [1] Xin bn hy ci thin bi vit ny bng cch b sung ch thch ti cc ngun uy tn. Nu bi c dch t Wikipedia ngn ng khc th hy chuyn ngun tham kho t phin bn cho bi ny.

Ton dng lao ng Th loi:Hon ton khng c ngun tham kho t 2009-04-24 Th loi:Hon ton khng c ngun tham kho Ton dng lao ng (hay Ton dng nhn cng) l trng thi ca nn kinh t m tt c mi ngi thuc lc lng lao ng (trong tui lao ng, c kh nng lao ng, c nhu cu lm vic vi mc lng hin hnh trn th trng lao ng) u c vic lm. Nn kinh t ch tn ti tht nghip t nhin. Ch c nhng ngi khng chp nhn lm vic mc lng chung ca th trng mi khng c vic lm. trng thi ton dng lao ng, ngun nhn lc trong nn kinh t c s dng t hiu qu ti u. Ton dng lao ng Th loi:Kinh t hc v m

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / vi. wikipedia. org/ w/ index. php?title=To%C3%A0n_d%E1%BB%A5ng_lao_%C4%91%E1%BB%99ng& action=edit

57

Tng trng kinh t

Tng trng kinh t
Tng trng kinh t l s gia tng ca tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) hoc tng sn lng quc gia (GNP) hoc quy m sn lng quc gia tnh bnh qun trn u ngi (PCI) trong mt thi gian nht nh.

Tng trng v pht trin

Qui m ca mt nn kinh t th hin bng tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) hoc tng sn phm quc gia (GNP), hoc tng sn phm bnh qun u ngi hoc thu nhp bnh qun u ngi (Per Capita Income, PCI). Tng sn phm quc ni (Gross Domestic Products, GDP) hay tng sn sn phm trong nc l gi tr tnh bng tin ca tt c sn phm v dch v cui cng c sn xut, to ra trong phm vi mt nn kinh t trong mt thi gian nht nh (thng l mt nm ti chnh). Tng sn phm quc gia (Gross National Products, GNP) l gi tr tnh bng tin ca tt c sn phm v dch v cui cng c to ra bi cng dn mt nc trong mt thi gian nht nh (thng l mt nm). Tng sn phm quc dn bng tng sn phm quc ni cng vi thu nhp rng. Tng sn phm bnh qun u ngi l tng sn phm quc ni chia cho dn s. Tng thu nhp bnh qun u ngi l tng sn phm quc gia chia cho dn s. Tng trng kinh t l s gia tng ca GDP hoc GNP hoc thu nhp bnh qun u ngi trong mt thi gian nht nh. Tng trng kinh t th hin s thay i v lng ca nn kinh t. Tuy vy mt s quc gia, mc bt bnh ng kinh t tng i cao nn mc d thu nhp bnh qun u ngi cao nhng nhiu ngi dn vn sng trong tnh trng ngho kh. Pht trin kinh t mang ni hm rng hn tng trng kinh t. N bao gm tng trng kinh t cng vi nhng thay i v cht ca nn kinh t (nh phc li x hi, tui th, v.v.) v nhng thay i v c cu kinh t (gim t trng ca khu vc s khai, tng t trng ca khu vc ch to v dch v). Pht trin kinh t l mt qu trnh hon thin v mi mt ca nn kinh t bao gm kinh t, x hi, mi trng, th ch trong mt thi gian nht nh nhm m bo rng GDP cao hn ng ngha vi mc hnh phc hn.

o lng tng trng kinh t

o lng tng trng kinh t c th dng mc tng trng tuyt i, tc tng trng kinh t hoc tc tng trng bnh qun hng nm trong mt giai on. Mc tng trng tuyt i l mc chnh lch quy m kinh t gia hai k cn so snh. Tc tng trng kinh t c tnh bng cch ly chnh lch gia quy m kinh t k hin ti so vi quy m kinh t k trc chia cho quy m kinh t k trc. Tc tng trng kinh t c th hin bng n v %. Biu din bng ton hc, s c cng thc: y = dY/Y 100(%), trong Y l qui m ca nn kinh t, v y l tc tng trng. Nu quy m kinh t c o bng GDP (hay GNP) danh ngha, th s c tc tng trng GDP (hoc GNP) danh ngha. Cn nu quy m kinh t c o bng GDP (hay GNP) thc t, th s c tc tng trng GDP (hay GNP) thc t. Thng thng, tng trng kinh t dng ch tiu thc t hn l cc ch tiu danh ngha.

Tng trng kinh t

58

L thuyt tng trng kinh t

gii thch ngun gc ca tng trng kinh t cc nh kinh t hc dng cc m hnh kinh t. M hnh David Ricardo (1772-1823) vi lun im c bn l t ai sn xut nng nghip (R, Resources) l ngun gc ca tng trng kinh t. Nhng t sn xut li c gii hn do ngi sn xut phi m rng din tch trn t xu hn sn xut, li nhun ca ch t thu c ngy cng gim dn n ch ph sn xut lng thc, thc phm cao, gi bn hng ha nong phm tng, tin lng danh ngha tng v li nhun ca nh t bn cng nghip gim. M li nhun l ngun tch ly m rng u t dn n tng trng. Nh vy, do gii hn t nng nghip dn n xu hng gim li nhun ca c ngi sn xut nng nghip v cng nghip v nh hng n tng trng kinh t. Nhng thc t mc tng trng ngy cng tng cho thy m hnh ny khng gii thch c ngun gc ca tng trng. M hnh hai khu vc tng trng kinh t da vo s tng trng hai khu vc nng nghip v cng nhip trong ch trng yu t chnh l lao ng (L labor), yu t tng nng sut do u t v khoa hc k thut tc ng ln hai khu vc kinh t. Tiu biu cho m hnh hai khu vc l m hnh Lewis, Tn c in v Harry T. Oshima. M hnh Harrod-Domar ngun gc tng trng kinh t l do lng vn (yu t K, capital) a vo sn xut tng ln. M hnh Robert Solow (1956) vi lun im c bn l vic tng vn sn xut ch nh hng n tng trng kinh t trong ngn hn m khng nh hng trong di hn, tng trng s t trng thi dng. Mt nn kinh t c mc tit kim cao hn s c mc sn lng cao hn khng nh hng n tng trng kinh t trong di hn (tng trng kinh t bng khng (0)). M hnh Kaldor tng trng kinh t ph thuc pht trin k thut hoc trnh cng ngh. M hnh Sung Sang Parkngun gc tng trng l tng cng vn u t quc gia cho u t con ngi. M hnh Tn c in ngun gc ca tng trng ty thuc vo cch thc kt hp hai yu t u vo vn(K) v lao ng (L). Trc Keynes, kinh t hc c in v tn c in khng phn bit rnh mch tng trng kinh t vi pht trin kinh t. Hn na, ngoi tr Schumpeter, cc trng phi trn u khng coi trng vai tr ca tin b k thut i vi tng trng kinh t. L thuyt tng trng kinh t ca kinh t hc v m Keynes tiu biu l m hnh Harrod-Domar. M hnh ny da trn hai gi thit cn bn: (1) gi c cng nhc, v (2) nn kinh t khng nht thit tnh trng ton dng lao ng. Ngun gc tng trng kinh t l do lng vn (yu t K, capital) a vo sn xut tng ln. T , h suy lun ra c rng mt khi nn kinh t ang trng thi tng trng cn bng m chuyn sang trng thi tng trng khng cn bng th s cng ngy cng khng cn bng (mt n nh kinh t). Trong khi , l thuyt tng trng tn c in xy dng m hnh ca mnh da trn h gi thit m hai gi thit cn bn l: (1) gi c linh hot, v (2) nn kinh t trng thi ton dng lao ng. M hnh tng trng kinh t ca h cho thy, khi nn kinh t ang trng thi tng trng cn bng m chuyn sang trng thi tng trng khng cn bng th ch l nht thi, v n s mau chng tr v trng thi cn bng.

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59

Cc nhn t ca tng trng kinh t

Sau khi nghin cu v tng trng kinh t ca cc nc pht trin ln cc nc ang pht trin, nhng nh kinh t hc pht hin ra rng ng lc ca pht trin kinh t phi c i cng trn bn bnh xe, hay bn nhn t ca tng trng kinh t l ngun nhn lc, ngun ti nguyn, t bn v cng ngh. Bn nhn t ny khc nhau mi quc gia v cch phi hp gia chng cng khc nhau a n kt qu tng ng. Ngun nhn lc: cht lng u vo ca lao ng tc l k nng, kin thc v k lut ca i ng lao ng l yu t quan trng nht ca tng trng kinh t. Hu ht cc yu t khc nh t bn, nguyn vt liu, cng ngh u c th mua hoc vay mn c nhng ngun nhn lc th kh c th lm iu tng t. Cc yu t nh my mc thit b, nguyn vt liu hay cng ngh sn xut ch c th pht huy c ti a hiu qu bi i ng lao ng c trnh vn ha, c sc khe v k lut lao ng tt. Thc t nghin cu cc nn kinh t b tn ph sau Chin tranh th gii ln th II cho thy mc d hu ht t bn b ph hy nhng nhng nc c ngun nhn lc cht lng cao vn c th phc hi v pht trin kinh t mt cch ngon mc. Mt v d l nc c, "mt lng ln t bn ca nc c b tn ph trong i chin th gii ln th hai, tuy nhin vn nhn lc ca lc lng lao ng nc c vn tn ti. Vi nhng k nng ny, nc c phc hi nhanh chng sau nm 1945. Nu khng c s vn nhn lc ny th s khng bao gi c s thn k ca nc c thi hu chin."[1] Ngun ti nguyn thin nhin: l mt trong nhng yu t sn xut c in, nhng ti nguyn quan trng nht l t ai, khong sn, c bit l du m, rng v ngun nc. Ti nguyn thin nhin c vai tr quan trng pht trin kinh t, c nhng nc c thin nhin u i mt tr lng du m ln c th t c mc thu nhp cao gn nh hon ton da vo nh rp X t. Tuy nhin, cc nc sn xut du m l ngoi l ch khng phi quy lut, vic s hu ngun ti nguyn thin nhin phong ph khng quyt nh mt quc gia c thu nhp cao. Nht Bn l mt nc gn nh khng c ti nguyn thin nhin nhng nh tp trung sn xut cc sn phm c hm lng lao ng, t bn, cng ngh cao nn vn c nn kinh t ng th hai trn th gii v quy m. T bn: l mt trong nhng nhn t sn xut, ty theo mc t bn m ngi lao ng c s dng nhng my mc, thit b...nhiu hay t (t l t bn trn mi lao ng) v to ra sn lng cao hay thp. c c t bn, phi thc hin u t ngha l hy sinh tiu dng cho tng lai. iu ny c bit quan trng trong s pht trin di hn, nhng quc gia c t l u t tnh trn GDP cao thng c c s tng trng cao v bn vng. Tuy nhin, t bn khng ch l my mc, thit b do t nhn du t cho sn xut n cn l t bn c nh x hi, nhng th to tin cho sn xut v thng mi pht trin. T bn c nh x hi thng l nhng d n quy m ln, gn nh khng th chia nh c v nhiu khi c li sut tng dn theo quy m nn phi do chnh ph thc hin. V d: h tng ca sn xut (ng giao thng, mng li in quc gia...), sc khe cng ng, thy li.... Cng ngh: trong sut lch s loi ngi, tng trng kinh t r rng khng phi l s sao chp gin n, l vic n thun ch tng thm lao ng v t bn, ngc li, n l qu trnh khng ngng thay i cng ngh sn xut. Cng ngh sn xut cho php cng mt lng lao ng v t bn c th to ra sn lng cao hn, ngha l qu trnh sn xut c hiu qu hn. Cng ngh pht trin ngy cng nhanh chng v ngy nay cng ngh thng tin, cng ngh sinh hc, cng ngh vt liu mi... c nhng bc tin nh v bo gp phn gia tng hiu qu ca sn xut. Tuy nhin, thay i cng ngh khng ch thun ty l vic tm ti, nghin cu; cng ngh c pht trin v ng dng mt cch nhanh chng c l nh "phn thng cho s i mi" - s duy tr c ch cho php nhng sng ch, pht minh c bo v v c tr tin mt cch xng ng.

Tng trng kinh t

60

Hn ch ca cc ch tiu tng trng kinh t

Cc ch tiu o lng mc tng trng kinh t c s dng lm thc o trnh pht trin nn kinh t mt cch c th, d hiu v n tr thnh mc tiu phn u ca mt chnh ph v n l tiu ch ngi dn nh gi hiu qu iu hnh t nc ca chnh ph. Nhng tng trng kinh t khng phn nh c chnh xc phc li ca cc nhm dn c khc nhau trong x hi, chnh lch giu ngho c th tng ln, chnh lch gia nng thn v thnh th c th tng cao v bt bnh ng x hi cng c th tng. Tng trng c th cao nhng cht lng cuc sng c th khng tng, mi trng c th b hy hoi, ti nguyn b khai thc qu mc, cn kit, ngun lc c th s dng khng hiu qu, lng ph.

Tham kho
Samuelson Paul A., Nordhalls William D, Kinh t hc, NXB Ti chnh (2007). Begg David, Fischer Stanley, Dornbusch Rudiger, Kinh t hc, NXB Thng k (2007). Tng trng kinh t

Ch thch
[1] Begg, Tr.559.

Th loi:Kinh t hc v m Th loi:Kinh t hc pht trin

M hnh tng trng Solow

M hnh tng trng Solow l mt m hnh thuyt minh v c ch tng trng kinh t do Robert Solow v Trevor Swan xy dng ri c cc hc gi kinh t khc b sung. Solow nhn c gii Nobel v kinh t nm 1987 nh cng hin ny. M hnh ny cn gi l M hnh tng trng tn c in v mt s gi thit ca m hnh da theo l lun ca kinh t hc tn c in. M hnh ny cn c cch gi khc, l M hnh tng trng ngoi sinh, bi v khng lin quan n cc nhn t bn trong, rt cc tng trng ca mt nn kinh t s hi t v mt tc nht nh trng thi bn vng. Ch cc yu t bn ngoi, l cng ngh v tc tng trng lao ng mi thay i c tc tng trng kinh t trng thi bn vng.

K hiu
Y l sn lng thc t (hoc thu nhp thc t). K l lng t bn em u t. L l lng lao ng. y l sn lng trn u lao ng. k l lng t bn trn u lao ng. S l tit kim ca c nn kinh t. s l t l tit kim. I l u t. i l u t trn u lao ng. C l tiu dng c nhn trong nn kinh t. c l tiu dng c nhn trn u lao ng. l t l khu hao t bn.

l lng t bn tng thm rng. n l tc tng dn s, ng thi l tc tng lc lng lao ng.

M hnh tng trng Solow

61

H gi thit
Gi thit 1
Gi c linh hot trong di hn. y l mt quan im ca kinh t hc tn c in. Khi ny, lao ng L c s dng hon ton, v nn kinh t tng trng ht mc tim nng v n nh. ng thi, lc ny, ton b tit kim S s c chuyn thnh u t I (quy tc Say trong kinh t hc tn c in) V do , sY = I. Mt khc, gi c lao ng (tc tin cng thc t) v gi t bn (tc li sut i vay) lc ny cng s linh hot. V th, c th kt hp hai yu t ny sn xut mt cch ty thch.

Gi thit 2
Mc sn lng thc t Y ph thuc vo lng lao ng L, lng t bn K vi nng sut lao ng A. T , ta c mt hm sn xut v m Y = F(A,L,K). Gi thit l hm ny c dng Cobb-Douglas, tc l:

Vi hm s dng Cobb-Douglas, nu ta nhn cc s nhn trong v phi vi cng mt s, th tch s bn v tri s tng ln cng s ln. Do vy, nu nhn 1/L vi L v K, th v tri s thnh Y/L tc l sn lng thc t trn u lao ng y. Cn K/L tc lng t bn trn u lao ng k. Hm sn xut v m s c dng sau:

Gi thit 3
Nn kinh t ng ca v khng c s can thip ca Chnh ph. Do , tng sn lng Y bng tng ca tiu dng c nhn C v u t I hay Y = C + I tng ng vi Y = C + sY v li tng ng vi C = (1-s)Y. Nu tnh trn u lao ng L, th s c tiu dng c nhn trn u ngi c bng sn lng thc t trn u ngi y nhn vi 1-s hay c = (1-s)y. Lu l 0 < s < 1.

Gi thit 4
C s khu hao t bn. Vi t l khu hao , mc khu hao s l K. u t I lm tng lng t bn trong khi khu hao K lm gim lng t bn, nn mc t bn thc t tng thm K s bng I - K. C th vit quan h trn thnh:

M hnh tng trng Solow

62

Gi thit 5
T bn K v lao ng L tun theo Quy lut li tc bin gim dn. C ngha l khi khi tng k th ban u y tng rt nhanh n mt lc no n tng chm li.

Gi thit 6
Hm y = f(k) l mt hm tng. th ca n c dng ng cong. Hm i = sf(k) = sy cng nh vy, bi v u t trn u lao ng i l mt b phn ca sn lng trn u lao ng y. Ch rng hm s y = f(k) l hm tng th o hm bc mt y' phi ln hn 0, mt khc do n tun theo quy lut nng sut cn bin gim dn nn o hm bc hai y phi nh 0. th ca hm s y = f(k) c hnh dng nh trong hnh v.

Gi thit 7
Thay i trong lc lng lao ng L th hin bng phng trnh sau:

trong , gL l hm s ca L. ng thi gi thit l tc thay i lao ng ng bng tc thay i dn s n.

Xc nh m hnh
nh|phi|300px|Hnh 1Khi t bn trn u lao ng k tng, th gi tr khu hao k tng, hn na, dn n t bn mi trn u lao ng nk tng. Gi k + nk hay (+n)k l u t cn thit, v n b p phn ti sn b hao mn v p ng vn cho lao ng mi tng thm. im A trn Hnh 1 l giao ca ng u t cn thit (+n)k v ng u t trn u lao ng i. N cho thy l mt s cn bng. Ti trng thi vn trn u lao ng k1 nh hn k*, th u t i = sy ln hn u t cn thit (+n)k, c ngha l k = sy (+n)k > 0 do dn n k tng. Ngc li, ti trng thi vn trn u lao ng k2 ln hn k*, th u t i = sy nh hn u t cn thit (+n)k, c ngha l k = sy (+n)k < 0, do k gim. Ta c, k tng ln n mc k*, v ngc li khi n gim, th gim n mc k*. C hai trng hp tng v gim u t n mt trng thi cn bng. V ngi ta gi l im n nh hay trng thi n nh. Ti trng thi n nh k*, chng ta nhn thy rng u t v u t cn thit cn bng nhau, hay ?k = sy (+n)k* = 0, tc tng ca sn lng trn lao ng bng khng (gy = 0), v tc tng ca vn trn mi lao ng bng khng (gk = 0).

63

Tranh lun v chnh sch kinh t v m

Kinh t hc tn c in
Kinh t hc tn c in l mt trng phi kinh t hc c trng tm nghin cu l c ch quyt nh gi c, sn lng, phn phi thu nhp thng qua nguyn l cung - cu da trn cc gi nh v hnh vi ti a ha tha dng ca ngi tiu dng trong iu kin mt ngn sch gii hn hay ti a ha li nhun ca nh sn xut trong iu kin chi ph b gii hn. Kinh t hc tn c in khi u bng kinh t hc vi m t na cui th k 19; v n nay hu ht cc l lun kinh t hc vi m u l do h ng gp. Kinh t hc tn c in ng gp vo kinh t hc v m ch yu t sau Chin tranh th gii th hai. N phi hp vi kinh t hc Keynes to ra ci gi l Trng phi kinh t hc v m tng hp.

Tn gi
Thorstein Veblen trong tc phm Preconceptions of Economic Science cng b nm 1900 dng cm t ting Anh "Neoclassical economics" gi th kinh t hc v gi tr cn bin thi y khi phn bit n vi kinh t hc c in (hay kinh t chnh tr c in) do Adam Smith khai sinh v th kinh t hc ca trng phi o. "Neoclassical economics" c dch ra ting Vit thnh "Kinh t hc tn c in". Sau ny, c mt trng phi kinh t hc mi xut hin, u tin Hoa K, tuy c gc r t kinh t hc tn c in nhng li c xp ring thnh mt trng phi, gi l "New classical economics". Tn phi mi ny hay c dch ra ting Vit thnh "Kinh t hc c in mi". Nhm ln hay xy ra khi gi tn Neoclassical economics v New classical economics, kinh t hc tn c in v kinh t hc c in mi. S d gi l kinh t hc tn c in l v cc hc thuyt ny tip thu, k tha cc ch quan tm ca kinh t hc c in, song s dng cch thc tip cn (phng php lun) mi.

Lch s
Kinh t hc c in do Adam Smith khai sinh v c David Ricardo pht trin. Alfred Marshall tip thu cc l lun ca Ricardo, b sung thm bng cc l lun v tha dng v tnh tha dng cn bin c pht trin trc bi John Stuart Mill, William Stanley Jevons, Carl Menger v Leon Walras. Marshall ph phn kinh t hc c in rng qu nhn mnh mt cung cp v li nhun, cn cc thuyt tha dng v gi tr cn bin li qu nhn mnh n mt nhu cu v tha dng. Marshall cho rng c hai mt cung v cu u quan trng nh nhau. ng vit cun Principles of Economics (1890) v tc phm ny tr thnh mt trong nhng tc phm kinh in ca kinh t hc tn c in. Trong tc phm ny, Marshall gii thch c ch quyt nh gi c bi s giao nhau ca hai ng cung cp v ng nhu cu. ng em k thut phn tch cn bng b phn vo kinh t hc tn c in. Joan Robinson v Edward H. Chamberlin l nhng ngi pht trin kinh t hc tn c in bng cc l lun v cnh tranh khng hon ho. Leon Walras v Vilfredo Pareto pht trin k thut phn tch cn bng tng th v a n vo kinh t hc tn c in. John Hicks pht trin kinh t hc tn c in bng l lun v nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng. Francis Ysidro Edgeworth v Vilfredo Pareto pht trin kinh t hc tn c in bng l lun v ng bng quan. Cng ngy, phng php tip cn ca kinh t hc tn c in cng p dng nhiu ton hc. Paul Samuelson vi tc phm Foundations of Economic Analysis (1947) lm cho kinh t hc tn c in tr nn ging nh mt ngnh ca ton hc v c ging dy rng ri ti cc khoa kinh t hc bc i hc Hoa K.

Kinh t hc tn c in Sau Chin tranh th gii th hai, mt mt kinh t hc tn c in tip tc pht trin mng kinh t hc vi m vi mt lot l lun m in hnh l m hnh Arrow-Debreu. Mt khc, n pht trin sang lnh vc kinh t hc v m vi s ng gp ni bt ca Robert Solow v Samuelson.

64

Ph phn
Kinh t hc tn c in b ph phn bi tnh l thuyt ca n, theo n khng tp trung vo gii quyt cc nn kinh t thc t, m li m t mt th qu l thuyt ni p dng Ti u Pareto. iu kin gi s l cc c nhn hnh ng theo k vng hp l b ph phn, v n l i cc kha cnh quan trng ca hnh vi con ngi. "Con ngi kinh t" khc vi con ngi thc t. Doanh nghip ngoi mc tiu kinh t cn c cc cc mc tiu x hi. N cng b ph phn l da qu nhiu vo cc m hnh ton phc tp, v d nh cc m hnh trong l thuyt cn bng tng th. Nhn chung, ph phn tp trung vo cc gi thuyt khng thc t ca l thuyt kinh t hc tn c in. Kinh t hc tn c in

Tham kho
The Encyclopedia of Earth: Neoclassical economic theory. [1] The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics: Neoclassical Economics. [2] Arnsperger, Christian and Varoufakis, Yanis (2006), "What Is Neoclassical Economics?" Post-Autistic Economics Review, No. 38, 1 July. [3] Th loi:Kinh t hc tn c in

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / www. eoearth. org/ article/ Neoclassical_economic_theory [2] http:/ / www. econlib. org/ library/ Enc/ NeoclassicalEconomics. html [3] http:/ / www. paecon. net/ PAEReview/ issue38/ ArnspergerVaroufakis38. htm

Kinh t hc Keynes

65

Kinh t hc Keynes
Kinh t hc Keynes l h thng l lun kinh t v m ly tc phm L thuyt tng qut v vic lm, li sut v tin t (thng c gi tt l L thuyt tng qut)[1] ca John Maynard Keynes (1883-1948) lm trung tm v ly nguyn l cu hu hiu lm nn tng. Nguyn l cu hu hiu khng nh rng, lng cung hng ha l do lng cu quyt nh. Do , vo nhng thi k suy thoi kinh t, nu tng lng cu u t hng ha cng cng (tng chi tiu cng cng), th sn xut v vic lm s tng theo, nh gip cho nn kinh t ra khi thi k suy thoi.

Bi cnh hnh thnh

Cuc i Khng hong (1929-1933) nh hng su sc ti suy ngh ca Keynes v kinh t hc. Trc , cc nh kinh t cho rng, mi khi c khng hong kinh t, gi c v tin cng s gim i; cc nh sn xut s c ng lc y mnh thu mn lao ng v m rng sn xut, nh nn kinh t s phc hi. Nhng Keynes li quan st cuc i Khng hong v thy: tin cng khng h gim, vic lm cng khng tng, v sn xut mi khng hi phc ni. T , Keynes cho rng th trng khng hon ho nh cc nh kinh t hc c in ngh.[1] Nhng suy ngh mi m ca ng c ghi chp li trong cun Chuyn lun v Tin t[1] cng b nm 1931 v nht l trong cun L thuyt tng qut.

L thuyt tng qut

L thuyt tng qut ca Keynes gii thiu mt lot l lun mi m i vi gii hc thut kinh t thi y, l Tng cu (Chng 3), Nguyn l Cu Hu hiu (Chng 3), K vng (Chng 5), S nhn (Chng 10), By thanh khon. Chnh v th, cun L thuyt Chung c gii hc thut kinh t nh gi nh mt cuc cch mng.[1] Mt s lun im chnh m Keynes trnh by trong cun L thuyt tng qut gm: Tin cng c tnh cng nhc. K vng v gim tin cng v gi c to ra vng xoy i xung ca nn kinh t hnh thnh. Li sut gim khng nht thit dn ti u t tng. Ci quy nh li sut, nht l trong ngn hn, chnh l cung v cu v tin. Li sut khng nn xung thp hn mt mc no . C th t c mc cn bng ngay c khi c tht nghip. Tht cht chi tiu trong thi k khng hong ch lm cho khng hong thm trm trng.

M hnh ha l lun ca Keynes

nh|phi| Ba cun L thuyt tng qut pht hnh nm 1936 Nm 1937, ngha l ch mt nm sau khi L thuyt Chung ca Keynes c cng b, John Richard Hick (1904-1989) pht trin mt m hnh, gi l Phn tch IS-LM dng khm ph cc gi thit lin quan n u t v tit kim, cung v cu tin.[1] Vi m hnh ny, cng vic xc nh im cn bng m Keynes l lun tr nn d dng. Nm 1939, Hicks cn m hnh ha tng v by thanh khon m Keynes a ra.[1] Trong nhng nm 1939-1948, Roy Forbes Harrod (1900-1978), mt ng nghip thn thit ca Keynes, pht trin mt m hnh din gii v tng trng kinh t da trn l lun ca Keynes v qui nh thu nhp.[1] Cng thi gian , Evsey David Domar (1914-1997) c lp pht trin mt m hnh tng t. V th, m hnh ny sau c gi l m hnh Harrod-Domar.[1] M hnh ny cho php ngi ta hiu d hn lun im ca Keynes rng kh c th t c mt mc cn bng ton dng nhn lc v pht trin lun im cn bng do cu quyt nh ca Keynes vo l lun tng trng di hn v dao ng chu k ni sinh.

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66

Trng phi Keynes sau Keynes

Sau khi Keynes mt nm 1948, cc l lun ca Keynes tip tc c mt s nh kinh t Anh t trng Cambridge trong nhm Cu lc b Keynes gm Joan Robinson, Richard Kahn, Piero Sraffa, Austin Robinson v James Meade bo v. Mt lot nh kinh t Anh ngoi trng Cambridge cng ng gp vo pht trin l lun ca Keynes gm Roy F. Harrod, Michal Kalecki, Nicholas Kaldor, Abba P. Lerner, John R. Hicks, Maurice H. Dobb, Lorie Tarshis, Richard Stone, v George L.S. Shackle. L lun ca Keynes cn c pht trin M, song b ci bin kh nhiu v nht l c tng hp vi l lun tn c in (Xem trng phi kinh t hc v m tng hp).

Ch thch v tham kho

^ John M. Keynes (1936), General Theory on Employment, Interest and Money^ Thut ng kinh t hc c in c Keynes t ra ch nhng hc thuyt kinh t tn ti trong khong mt trm nm cho ti lc ng xut bn cun L thuyt Chung. Sau Keynes, cc nh s hc kinh t c iu chnh cch gi kinh t hc c in thnh ch gm cc hc thuyt kinh t t Adam Smith cho ti trc Walras. Cn t Walras ti trc Keynes l kinh t hc tn c in.^ John M. Keynes (1931), Treasite on Money^ Xem Klein R. Lawrence (1947), The Keynesian Revolution, New York: Macmillan.^ John R. Hicks (1937), Mr. Keynes and the Classics: A Suggested Simplification, Econometrica, 5, pp. 147-159^ John R. Hicks (1939) 1946, Value and Capital, Second Edition, Oxford: Clarendon Press.^ Xem Roy F. Harrod (1939), "An Essay in Dynamic Theory," Economic Journal, 49 (March), pp. 14-33 v xem Roy F. Harrod (1948), Towards a Dynamic Economics: Some Recent Developments of Economic Theory and Their Application to Policy, London: Macmillan.^ Xem Evsey D. Domar (1946), Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth and Employment, Econometrica.

Lin kt ngoi
Masudul Alam Choudhury, The Second Revolution in Economic Thought: The Keynesian School [2] John Maynard Keynes [3] The Cambridge Keynesians [4]

Ch thch
[1] [2] [3] [4] http:/ / vi. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ Kinh_t%E1%BA%BF_h%E1%BB%8Dc_Keynes#endnote_no http:/ / islamic-finance. net/ islamic-economy/ chap/ chap-2. html http:/ / cepa. newschool. edu/ het/ profiles/ keynes. htm http:/ / cepa. newschool. edu/ het/ schools/ cambridge. htm

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Trng phi kinh t hc v m tng hp

Kinh t hc v m tng hp l mt trng phi kinh t hc v m da trn vic tng hp cc hc thuyt ca kinh t hc tn c in vi kinh t hc v m Keynes.

c im
Trng phi ny ly cn bng tng th ca kinh t hc tn c in lm khung, b sung thm l lun cu hu hiu ca kinh t hc Keynes, v s dng tch cc phn tch IS-LM ca Hicks. Phi ny cho rng da vo chnh sch iu chnh cu hu hiu ca nh nc c th t c trng thi ton dng lao ng nh kinh t hc tn c in nhn nhn v y mnh c tng trng kinh t. Cc m hnh kinh t lng s gip nh nc tnh ton v iu chnh cu hu hiu mt cch hiu qu.

Hnh thnh, pht trin v thoi tro

Trng phi ny hnh thnh trc tin M vo thp nin 1950, vi cc i biu nh Paul Anthony Samuelson, James Tobin v Franco Modigliani. Song, chnh Hicks l ngi s dng phn tch IS-LM din gii l lun ca Keynes di hnh thc cn bng tng th m u trng phi ny. Tuy nhin, phn tch IS-LM mi u ca Hicks khng lm c mt vic theo Keynes l gn khu vc kinh t thc vi khu vc tin t. Trng phi kinh t hc v m tng hp gii quyt c thiu st ny ca Hicks bng ng cong Phillips. ng ny cho thy khi vic lm tng ln (ngha l tht nghip gim) th lm pht cng gia tng. Trng phi t n thi k hong kim trong thp nin 1960. N l phi ch lu trong t tng kinh t hc v m lc . Chnh quyn Kennedy M v chnh quyn nhiu nc phng Ty khc tch cc p dng hc thuyt ca trng phi ny. Sang thp nin 1970, lin tip nhng cuc khng hong kinh t ln n ra, tht nghip v lm pht cng gia tng (nh lm). Ngoi ra, thm ht ngn sch v thm ht thng mi xy ra ng thi (thm ht kp). Cc l lun ca kinh t hc v m tng hp khng gii thch ni nhng hin tng kinh t ni trn, nn bt u thoi tro.

Ti liu tham kho

Brian Snowdon (2005), Modern Macroeconomics: It's Origins, Development and Current State, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.

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68

Ch ngha tin t
Ch ngha tin t l h thng cc hc thuyt v l lun kinh t v m lin quan n tin t, mt bin s kinh t quan trng. Nhng ngi theo ch ngha tin t khng ng h vic lm dng chnh sch tin t n nh chu k kinh t. H ngh tin t trung lp hoc ch nn gi cho tc tng cung tin chm, n nh v va ng bng tc tng sn lng thc t.

Bi cnh hnh thnh

C th xem ci mc hnh thnh ch ngha tin t l cng trnh ca Milton Friedman cng b nm 1956 lin quan n thuyt s lng tin t [1].[1] Trong tc phm ny, Friedman cho rng cung tin m vt qu cu tin th ngi ta s tiu s tin d tha, khin cho tng cu tng ln. iu ny r rng tri vi l lun ca Keynes rng tng cu khng lin quan g n tin t [1]. Tuy nhin, phi n gia thp nin 1960, trng phi ny mi tr nn c bit n nhiu v thch thc cc hc thuyt Keynes sau tc phm Lch s Tin t M, 1867-1960[1] do Friedman vit chung vi Schwartz trong cc tc gi cho rng nguyn nhn ca cuc i Khng hong (1929-1933) l s thu hp cung tin qu mc trong lc th trng i tn dng ch khng phi l thiu u t (dn ti tng cu thiu ht so vi tng cung) nh Keynes ngh. Cc tc gi cn cho rng nguyn nhn ca hin tng lm pht M l do cung tin c m rng qu mc. Nm 1968, Karl Bruner dng cm t "monetarism - ch ngha tin t" ch cc ch trng v l lun ca Friedman.[1] Cui thp nin 1970 v u thp nin 1980, cc l lun ca ch ngha tin t bt u c p dng vo chnh sch kinh t. Alan Greenspan v Ben Bernanke, ln lt l cc ch tch Cc D tr Lin bang M (Fed) u c xem l nhng ngi theo ch ngha tin t. kji

Cc l lun chnh
Hm cu tin ca Friedman
Xem bi ring v Hm cu tin ca Friedman Nm 1956, Friedman gii thiu l lun ca mnh v cu tin, theo lng cu v tin ca nn kinh t ph thuc vo mt vi bin s kinh t ln nh cc thu nhp thng xuyn, li sut d tnh ca tri phiu, chng khon, t l lm pht d tnh v li tc t tin. Friedman cn gi nh rng, ngi ta s chuyn ti sn ca mnh t dng tin sang hng ha nu pht hin t l lm pht d tnh tng ln. Nh vy, chnh l cung tin tng lm tng tiu dng v do lm tng tng cu, gy ra bin ng kinh t.

Thuyt s lng tin t

Xem bi ring v Thuyt s lng tin t Irving Fisher l ngi a ra thuyt s lng tin t vo nm 1911 vi "ng thc trao i" theo lng cung tin nhn vi tc lu thng s va ng bng sn lng thc t nhn vi mc gi chung. Friedman din gii li ng thc ny dng ng hc vi nhng gi thit mi gm (1) sn lng thc t c nh v mc ton dng nhn lc, (2) tc lu thng tin t khng thay i, (3) cung tin l bin ngoi sinh v ngn hng trung ng l c quan quyt nh n. Kt qu l tc tng cung tin s bng t l lm pht. T kt lun, chnh l ngn hng trung ng gy ra lm pht khi tng cung tin. Lm pht bao gi cng l mt hin tng tin t.

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69

Quan h gia lm pht v mt gi tin t

H ngi ta d tnh lm pht s cao, th li sut trn th trng m s c nng ln khin cho ni t mt gi so vi cc ngoi t n nh.[1]

T l tht nghip t nhin

T l tht nghip t nhin l khi nim c Friedman gii thiu vo nm 1968 [1] nhm mc ch bc b ng cong Phillips ca trng phi tng hp. Khng th lm gim c t l tht nghip ny bng cch tng tng cu bi v iu ny ch em li hu qu l lm pht tng tc. Sau ny, kinh t hc v m c in mi pht trin khi nim ny thnh t l tht nghip khng lm gia tc lm pht.

Ch thch v tham kho

Monetarism [2] Case, Karl and Fair, Ray (2002), Principles of Economics, Prentice Hall Business Publishing ^ "The Quantity Theory of Money: A restatement", 1956, in Friedman, editor, Studies in Quantity Theory. ^ Thc ra, t cui th k 19, cc l lun mang tnh h thng lin quan n tin t xut hin. ^ Xem Kinh t hc Keynes^ (1963) A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 ^ "The Role of Money and Monetary Policy", 1968, St. Louis Fed Review ^ Xem bi Monetarism [3] ca Allan H. Meltzer. ^ Friedman, Milton (1968), "The Role of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review vol. LVIII (March), pp: 1-17.

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / vi. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ Ch%E1%BB%A7_ngh%C4%A9a_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87#endnote_no [2] http:/ / cepa. newschool. edu/ het/ essays/ monetarism/ monetarcont. htm [3] http:/ / www. econlib. org/ LIBRARY/ Enc/ Monetarism. html

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Kinh t hc v m c in mi
Kinh t hc v m c in mi (Hay Kinh t hc v m tn c in) (ting Anh: Neo Classical Macroeconomics) l b phn kinh t hc v m da trn kinh t hc vi m tn c in, hnh thnh t thp nin 1970. Phi ny xy dng h thng hc thuyt kinh t hc v m ca mnh t nn tng ca kinh t hc vi m, gi nh l th trng hon ho d l trong ngn hn hay di hn v c nhn (khu vc t nhn) c y thng tin khi ra quyt nh. Phi ny ch trng vic thit k cc chnh sch kinh t v m phi nhm mc ch ti a ha tha dng ca c nhn. Nhng ng gp quan trng nht ca phi ny vo kinh t hc v m gm gi thuyt d tnh duy l, tnh khng nht qun theo thi gian, hm cung Lucas, l thuyt chu k kinh doanh thc.

Bi cnh hnh thnh

Gia thp nin 1930, kinh t hc v m c hnh thnh vi nhng ng gp cch mng ca Keynes. Kinh t hc v m Keynes v tip theo l kinh t hc v m tng hp nhn mnh nhng im khng hon ho ca th trng (tin cng cng nhc, by thanh khon, v.v...), coi l l do nh nc tch cc s dng cc chnh sch n nh kinh t v m. C th ni, trong thi k t thp nin 1930 n thp nin 1960, kinh t hc v m v c bn l cc l lun ca hai phi ni trn. Tuy nhin, t thp nin 1970, nhiu hin tng kinh t nh nh lm, thm ht kp, v.v... khng c hai phi gii p n tha. Kinh t hc v m c in mi xut hin v phn i kinh t hc Keynes cng nh kinh t hc v m tng hp, ph phn l lun ca hai phi ny l khng c nn tng kinh t hc vi m v s dng gi thuyt d tnh hp l bc b cc l lun ca hai phi ny.

C s l thuyt
Kinh t hc tn c in da trn cc Gi thuyt Walrase. Cc bn tham gia c gi s l c gng ti a ha ch li (utility) da trn c s k vng hp l. Bt c lc no, nn kinh t c gi s c mt cn bng (duy nht), ti mi ngi u c vic (full employment) hoc ti GDP t mc tim nng (s dng ht kh nng) thng qua cc iu chnh v gi v lng (gi v lng s ln xung sao cho sn phm tiu th ht v ngi lao ng c vic ht). Tm li, th trng l cn bng (cung bng cu). Tin phong s dng cc m hnh kinh t i din (m hnh s dng mt c nhn hoc mt cng ty lm i in cho ton th, cc c nhn hoc cng ty khc ging ht). Cc m hnh ny gn y b ph phn nng n, b ch ra rng c s khc bit gia ng x trong kinh t vi m v trong kinh t v m (Theo Kirman (1992)), v nn kinh t v m khng th l php cng n gin ca cc c nhn hay cng ty ging ht nhau. Theo cch no , cc ph phn ny thuc v Tranh ci vn Cambridge. K vng hp l lc u c a ra bi John Muth, sau c ph bin bi Robert Emerson Lucas. Mt trong cc m hnh ni ting ca Kinh t hc tn c in l M hnh chu k kinh doanh thc, pht trin bi Edward C. Prescott and Finn E. Kydland.

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Cc i biu
Cc nh kinh t tiu biu ca trng phi ny gm Robert Emerson Lucas, John F. Muth, Finn E. Kydland, Edward C. Prescott, Neil Wallace, Thomas J. Sargent.

Gi thuyt D tnh duy l

Xem bi chnh v K vng hp l Kinh t hc v m c in mi gi nh rng: nhng c nhn kinh t in hnh s khng ngy th da vo kinh nghim qu kh d tnh (d tnh mang tnh chp nhn); h c y thng tin v m hnh kinh t xung quanh mnh, v s dng tt c nhng thng tin c c d tnh (d tnh c suy ngh --> d tnh duy l). Khi , cc nh sn xut, ni chung, s t ra mc gi v mc tin cng m bo c cn bng trn th trng hng ha v th trng lao ng. Nh th, ni chung, s khng c tht nghip. Gi d c mt cn bng i na, th cng ch l hin tng nht thi v l hu qu ca nhng c sc kinh t ngu nhin v khng d on c. Nh nc khng cn thit phi thc hin cc bin php n nh kinh t.

Hm cung Lucas
Xem bi chnh v Hm cung Lucas Hm cung Lucas, mang tn Lucas- mt trong nhng tr ct ca kinh t hc tn c in mi, th hin sn lng l hm s ca nhng c sc gi c. Vt gi gia tng ngoi d kin c th khin ngi lao ng v nh sn xut tng lm l gi c tng i tng nn quyt nh iu chnh lng cung lao ng v lng cung hng ha. Kt cc l sn lng thay i. Nh vy, sn lng bin ng l do nhng c sc gi c; nh nc chng th lm c g n nh sn lng v phi thn trng khi s dng chnh sch tin t.

L thuyt Chu k kinh doanh thc

Xem bi chnh v Chu k kinh doanh thc Kinh t hc v m c in mi gii thch rng trong iu kin gi c v tin cng hon ton linh hot, ng thi d tnh ca mi ngi l duy l mt cch hon ho, th vn c nhng bin ng chu k kinh doanh m nguyn nhn l nhng c sc cng ngh v nhng c sc khc. Nu khng c nhng c sc ny, th d tng cu bin ng th no i na, sn lng cng khng thay i.

Tnh khng nht qun theo thi gian

Xem bi chnh v Tnh khng nht qun theo thi gian Kinh t hc v m c in mi cn gi nh rng s thch ca con ngi thng xuyn thay i ch khng nht qun theo thi gian. Nh nc cng vy, v do chnh sch kinh t di hn ti u ca nh nc cng thay i theo thi gian. Khi , d tnh duy l ca nhn dn tr nn nht thi thiu chnh xc, gy ra nhng bin ng kinh t. V th, thay v p dng cc chnh sch ty bin, nh nc hy p dng cc chnh sch theo quy lut.

nh l ng gi Baro-Ricardo
Xem bi chnh v Cn bng Ricardo Nh nc thc hin cc chng trnh kch cu bng cch tng chi tiu chnh ph. Nhng c ngun ti chnh cho cc khon chi tiu , nh nc li pht hnh cng tri v tri phiu. Tuy nhin kinh t hc v m c in mi khng nh: ngi ta, vi d tnh duy l, s hiu rng hm nay nh nc i vay th tng lai nh nc s tng thu c tin tr n, nn s gim tiu dng v tng tit kim hm nay tng lai c tin np thu. Nh th, tuy nh nc tng tiu dng ca mnh, nhng li lm gim tiu dng c nhn, nn hiu qu ca chnh sch kch cu s khng cao

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Tham kho
Romp, Graham (?), Topics in Economic Theory and Practice, Chapter 6 [1] Case, Karl and Fair, Ray (2002), Principles of Economics, Prentice Hall Business Publishing

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / www. economics. bham. ac. uk/ romp/ Chapter6. pdf

Kinh t hc Keynes mi
Kinh t hc Keynes mi l mt trng phi kinh t hc v m tm cch thuyt minh mnh trung tm v gi c v tin cng cng nhc trong ngn hn ca kinh t hc Keynes bng kinh t hc vi m. Trng phi ny hin nay a ra ba l lun chnh, gm: hp ng lao ng di hn, tin cng hiu sut, v chi ph thc n.

L lun v hp ng lao ng di hn
Xem bi chnh Gi thuyt hp ng lao ng di hn. Gi thuyt ny cho rng gi lao ng lm vic cho mnh lu di, gii ch thng k nhng hp ng lm vic di hn. Chnh v vy m lng theo hp ng khng th c s iu chnh t ngt. Trong trng hp c thay i hp ng, v khng th tt c cc doanh nghip v cc ngnh trong nn kinh t cng thay i hp ng vo cng mt thi im, nn ch c mt b phn lao ng l c thay i tin cng. Xt bnh qun ton nn kinh t, th tin cng vn khng i.

L lun v tin cng hiu sut

Xem bi chnh Gi thuyt tin cng hiu qu. khuyn khch nhit tnh lao ng v gi lao ng lnh ngh, ngay c trong thi im tht nghip pht sinh, gii ch vn c th khng ct gim tin cng. Khi m tin cng khng b ct gim (cng c ngha l gi c lao ng khng h xung), th tht nghip (d cung lao ng) vn khng c gii quyt, th trng lao ng vn mt cn bng.

L lun v chi ph thc n

Xem bi chnh Gi thuyt chi ph thc n. V th trng c tnh trng cnh tranh khng hon ho, nn d th trng c bin ng th x nghip cha chc thay i gi bn ca mnh. L do l chi ph iu chnh thng bo v gi bn (ging nh chi ph in li thc n) c th cao hn li ch m x nghip thu c do iu chnh gi. Kinh t hc Keynes mi gn lin vi cc hc gi kinh t nh N. Gregory Mankiw, Joseph E. Stiglitz, Olivier Blanchard, Stanley Fischer, v.v...

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C s vi m ca kinh t hc v m
Nguyn l cung - cu
Nguyn l cung - cu, hay quy lut cung cu, pht biu rng thng qua s iu chnh ca th trng, mt mc gi cn bng (cn gi l mc gi th trng) v mt lng giao dch hng cn bng (lng cung cp bng lng nhu cu) s c xc nh.

Cu
Nhu cu
Nhu cu, trong kinh t hc thng c hiu l nhu cu tiu dng hay cn c gi l s thch tiu dng. Trong kinh t hc, nhu cu nu khng c kh nng ti chnh p ng s thch tiu dng , th khng th gi tt nhu cu l cu.

Cu
Cu l nhu cu cng vi kh nng thanh ton cho nhu cu ; l s cn thit ca mt c th v mt hng ha hay dch v no m c th sn sng c kh nng thanh ton cho hng ha hay dch v . Khi cu ca ton th cc c th i vi mt mt hng trong mt nn kinh t gp li, ta c cu th trng. Khi cu ca ton th cc c th i vi tt c cc mt hng gp li, ta c tng cu. Thc cht, Cu l mt thut ng dng din t thi ca ngi mua v kh nng mua v mt loi hng ha. Khi chng ta gia nhp th trng hng ha, c hai yu t xc nh chng ta c th tr thnh ngi mua (c nhu cu) ch khng phi ngi i ngm hng: 1. Yu t u tin: khu v v s a thch. Yu t ny quyt nh, chng ta c sn sng chi tin mua mn hng hay khng. Nu mn hng r th c th mua chng hoc cng c th khng thm m xa nu c cho khng, vy cu trong trng hp ny bng khng. 2. Yu t th hai: kh nng ti chnh. Khu v v s a thch cha thc y ta tr thnh ngi mua hng. Mn hng hp khu v m ta rt thch, nhng li qu nhiu tin; vy cu trong trng hp ny cng l s khng. Nh vy, cu xoay quanh hai yu t: mun sn sng mua v kh nng ti chnh m ta c. Lu rng s lng cu hng ha ty thuc vo hai yu t k trn m cn ty thuc vo thi gi na, v nu gi c thay i th khi lng hng ha cu cng s thay i.

S Lng cu
S lng cu v hng ha l s lng m ngi mua sn sng mua trong mt thi k no . Sn sng mua c ngha l ngi mua s thc s sn sng tr tin cho s lng cu nu n l c sn. iu ny rt quan trng phn bit gia s lng cu v s lng thc s mua. Lng mt mt hng no m mt c th c nhu cu, khi c ngn sch mua ti mt thi im nht nh vi mc gi c xc nh ca n v mc gi c xc nh ca cc hng ha khc gi l lng cu. Nh vy, c th thy s lng cu mt mt hng ph thuc vo gi c th trng ca chnh n, mc thu nhp ca mi c th, v vo gi c ca cc mt hng khc (nht l cc mt hng thay th hoc b sung cho n), thm ch vo c thi im, th hiu ca khch hng, k vng gi trong tng lai, quy m dn s v thi tit.

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74

ng cong cu
nh|phi|250px|ng cong cu dc xung. Gi c tng, lng cu gim. y l s dch chuyn dc theo ng cu Trong kinh t hc nhp mn, cho n gin, ngi ta thng c nh cc yu t nh gi c cc mt hng khc, mc thu nhp ca ngi tiu dng, thi tit, v.v... v ch tp trung vo xem xt quan h gia gi c mt mt hng vi lng cu v n ri biu din quan h ny bng ng cong cu. ng ny c t trong mt trc ta hai chiu vi trc tung l mc gi v trc honh l lng cu. ng cong cu ca mt mt hng bnh thng s l mt ng dc xung pha phi, bi v quan h gia gi c v lng cu l quan h nghch. Gi c tng th lng cu gim, cn khi gi c gim th lng cu s tng ln. Kinh t hc gi l s dch chuyn dc theo ng cu. Quan h bnh thng ny i khi c gi l quy tc cu. Tuy nhin, hng ha Giffen hoc hng ha Veblen nh xe hi cao cp s khng tun theo quy tc ny. Khi gi c ca chng tng, ngi ta s mua chng nhiu hn. Mc nhy cm trong thay i lng cu ca mt mt hng khi gi c ca chnh n thay i gi l co dn ca cu theo gi c. Nu nh s dch chuyn dc theo ng cu l do mc gi thay i trong khi cc yu t khc khng i, th vi mc gi c nh cn cc yu t khc (thu nhp v s thch ca ngi tiu dng, gi c cc hng ha khc) thay i, c ng cu s dch chuyn.

Quan h gia lng cu v thu nhp ca ngi tiu dng

nh|tri|200px|Khi mc gi khng i, cc yu t khc thay i, c ng cu s dch chuyn khin lng cu thay i.Nu mt hng m ngi mua c nhu cu l hng ha thng thng hoc hng ha xa x hay hng ha cao cp, th khi thu nhp ca anh ta tng, lng cu mt hng ny cng tng. Nu l Hng ha th cp, th khi thu nhp ca ngi mua tng, lng cu mt hng li gim v anh ta kh gi hn nn s thch thay i. Mc nhy cm ca thay i v lng cu ca mt mt hng khi thu nhp ca ngi mua thay i gi l co dn ca nhu cu theo thu nhp.

Quan h gia lng cu hng ha ny vi gi c hng ha khc

Lng cu mt mt hng khng ch chu tc ng t gi c ca chnh n, m cn t gi c ca cc mt hng khc. Gi nh cc yu t khc khng thay i. Lng cu mt mt hng s gim, khi gi c ca nhng mt hng thay th cho n h xung. V d, lng cu v ru c th gim, nu gi bia h xung. Lng cu mt mt hng s gim, khi gi c ca nhng mt hng b sung cho n tng ln. V d, lng cu v my in c th gim, nu gi mc in, giy in, v.v... tng ln. Mc nhy cm trong thay i lng cu ca mt mt hng khi gi c cc mt hng khc thay i, gi l co dn cho ca nhu cu theo gi c.

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Quan h gia lng cu vi s thch ca ngi tiu dng

Gi nh cc yu t khc khng thay i, khi ngi tiu dng thay i s thch ca mnh i vi mt hng no , th lng cu ca hng ha s thay i theo. V d, nu ngi tiu dng tr nn khng thch ung c ga, v gi nh cc yu t khc trong c gi c mt hng ny khng i, th lng cu v ung c ga s gim i.

Hm s cu
ng cong cu ch th hin c quan h gia lng cu vi mc gi trong khi lng cu ph thuc vo nhiu yu t khc na. Hm s cu (hm cu) l cch tt hn ng cong cu th hin quan h gia lng cu ca mt mt hng vi cc yu t quy nh n. Hai hm cu dng n gin l hm cu Hicks v hm cu Marshall. Hm cu Hicks Hm cu Hicks th hin lng cu v mt mt hng l hm s ng thi ca gi c mt hng v mc tha dng ti thiu m ngi mua mun nhn c t vic tiu dng mt hng. Hm cu Marshall Hm cu Marshall, cn gi l Hm cu Walras, th hin lng cu v mt mt hng l hm s ng thi ca gi c cc mt hng v thu nhp ca ngi mua.

Cung
Cung l mt thut ng dng ch thi ca ngi bn v kh nng bn v mt loi hng ha no .

S lng cung
S lng cung l s lng hng ha m ngi bn sn sng bn trong mt thi k nht nh. Sn sng bn y ngha l ngi bn s sn sng cung cp s lng cung nu c ngi mua ht s hng . iu ny rt quan trng phn bit gia s lng cung v s lng thc s bn. Cung ng, trong kinh t hc, ch vic cho bn hng ha hay dch v no . Lng ca mt mt hng c cho bn vi mt mc gi c th trng hin hnh, mc gi nht nh ca cc yu t sn xut v trnh k thut nht nh, vi nhng quy ch nht nh ca chnh ph, k vng v gi, thi tit gi l lng cung ng, hay lng cung. Tng tt c cc lng cung v mt mt hng bi tt c nhng ngi bn trong mt nn kinh t gi l cung th trng. Tng tt c nhng lng cung ca cc hng ha v dch v bi tt c cc nh sn xut trong mt nn kinh t gi l tng cung.

ng cung
nh|phi|200px|ng cong cung cp dc ln. Khi mc gi thay i, lng cung s thay i. y l mt s dch chuyn dc theo ng cungQuan h gia lng cung v gi c c th th hin thng qua ng cong cung ng (hay ng cung). y l mt ng dc ln pha phi trong mt h trc ta vi trc tung l cc mc gi c v trc honh l cc lng cung cp. Khi gi c tng ln, nh sn xut s tng lng cung hng ha (sn lng). Nh hnh v cho thy, s thay i ny din ra dc theo ng cung. Kinh t hc gi l s dch chuyn dc theo ng cung. Mc nhy cm trong thay i ca lng cung khi gi c thay i gi l co dn ca cung theo gi c. y chnh l dc ca ng cung. co dn cng ln th dc ca ng cung cng nh. nh|tri|200px|Khi chi ph bnh qun gim, c ng cung s dch chuyn sang phi. D mc gi khng i th lng cung vn tng.ng cung c xy dng trn c s gi nh l chi ph bnh qun sn xut mt hng ca x nghip khng thay i. Song, nu chi ph bnh qun thay i, c ng cung s dch chuyn (lc ny li gi nh mc gi khng thay i). Nu chi ph bnh qun gim, ng cung s dch song song sang phi. Ta thy lng cung

Nguyn l cung - cu mt mc gi cho trc s tng ln. Tuy nhin, khng phi lc no ng cong cung cp cng l mt ng dc ln. i khi n thng ng (vung gc vi trc honh). y l lc lng cung khng c phn ng vi thay i trong mc gi ( co sn bng 0). Nguyn nhn c th l x nghip khng kp iu chnh c s sn xut ca mnh tng sn lng. Trong kinh t hc v m, ng tng cung trong di hn l mt ng thng ng. ng cung cng c th l mt ng dc xung.

76

Nguyn l cung cu
Nguyn l cung - cu, hay quy lut cung cu, pht biu rng thng qua s iu chnh ca th trng, mt mc gi cn bng (cn gi l mc gi th trng) v mt lng giao dch hng cn bng s c xc nh. Mc gi v lng hng tng ng vi giao im ca ng cung v ng cu. Trng thi cn bng ca mt mt hng nh th gi l cn bng b phn. Khi t trng thi cn bng ca cng lc tt c cc mt hng, kinh t hc gi l cn bng tng th hay cn bng chung. trng thi cn bng, s khng c d cung (lng cung ln hn lng cu) hay d cu (lng cu ln hn lng cung).

Gi cn bng
Gi cn bng l mc gi m s lng cung bng s lng cu, ng vi s lng ny gi l s lng cn bng.

iu chnh lng giao dch

Xem bi iu chnh Marshall. Alfred Marshall cho rng khi mt mt hng trng thi d cu th gi ca ngi mua s cao hn gi ca ngi bn; ngi sn xut s tng lng cung. Ngc li, khi mt hng trng thi d cung, th gi ca ngi mua s thp hn gi ca ngi bn; ngi sn xut s gim lng cung.

iu chnh gi c
Xem bi iu chnh Walras. Tri vi Marshall, Leon Walras cho rng th trng t trng thi cn bng khng phi bi s iu chnh lng cung cp, m bi s iu chnh gi c. Khi mt mc gi c nu ra cao hn mc gi cn bng cn c khin cho lng cung sn sng nhiu hn lng cu sn sng, th gi c s gim xung mc cn bng th trng khng cn d cung. Cn khi mc gi nu ra thp hn mc gi cn bng, th lng cu sn sng cao hn lng cung sn sng (th trng d cu), th gi c s tng ln.

iu chnh kiu mng nhn

Xem bi chnh iu chnh kiu mng nhn. iu chnh mng nhn l s iu chnh ng thi c gi c ln lng hng t ti trng thi cn bng. S iu chnh din ra qua nhiu k. Gi c thay i trong k ny s dn ti phn ng ca lng cung trong k tip theo.

Gi c cng nhc

77

Gi c cng nhc
Gi c cng nhc (mt s ti liu c th ghi l gi dnh, gi c khng bin ng) l mt thut ng kinh t hc ch tnh trng gi c (bao gm c gi c lao ng, tc l tin cng) chm thay i, m thng l t khi gim i.

Cc quan im v gi c cng nhc

Kinh t hc tn c in cho rng gi c linh hot gip cho nn kinh t nhanh chng ly li cn bng trong trng hp c mt c sc no gy mt cn bng. V l , h kt lun rng s can thip ca nh nc vo nn kinh t l khng cn thit. Tri li, kinh t hc Keynes cho rng s can thip ca nh nc vo nn kinh t l cn thit khi xy ra mt c sc, nn kinh t vn c mt thi gian ngn mt cn bng gy ra nhng bin ng kinh t v m. Gi c cng nhc chnh l nguyn nhn ca vic nn kinh t khng th tr li trng thi cn bng trong thi gian ngn. V sao gi c li cng nhc ch khng linh hot, cc nh kinh t hc Keynes a ra cc gi thuyt sau: Hp ng lao ng di hn o gic tin t Chi ph thc n Thng tin khng hon ho Quan tm ti s cng bng Lnh o gi Cc nh kinh t hc Keynes cn cho rng, mc d gi c cng nhc gy ra nhng bin ng kinh t v m, song n li l c s cho cc chnh sch kinh t v m, c bit l chnh sch tin t, c th hot ng c l phng nhng bin ng . T cui thp nin 1990, mt lot nghin cu c cng b nu ra tng nghin cu gi c cng nhc thit k chnh sch tin t cho ph hp. c nhiu nghin cu thc nghim tm bng chng chp nhn hoc bc b gi thit v gi c cng nhc. Tuy nhin, kt qu khng thng nht.

Tham kho
Karl Whelan (2007), New-Keynesian Models of Price Rigidity, PhD Macroeconomics Lecture Notes [1]
50px Bi ny cn s khai. [2] Mi bn gp sc vit thm bi c hon thin hn. Xem phn tr gip v cch sa bi.

Th loi:S khai Th loi:Kinh t hc v m Th loi:Ch ngha Keynes

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / www. karlwhelan. com/ Teaching/ PhD/ part7. pdf [2] http:/ / vi. wikipedia. org/ w/ index. php?title=Gi%C3%A1_c%E1%BA%A3_c%E1%BB%A9ng_nh%E1%BA%AFc& action=edit

o gic tin t

78

o gic tin t
o gic tin t l mt gi thuyt kinh t hc cho rng ch th kinh t c khuynh hng ch nhn thc c gi tr danh ngha ca tin m khng nhn thc c gi tr thc t ca tin. John Maynard Keynes l ngi nu ra gi thuyt ny, v Irving Fisher l ngi pht trin thuyt ny qua tc phm Money Illusion ca mnh cng b nm 1928. Fisher cho rng cc ch th kinh t khng c kh nng tnh ton chnh xc v ng nh ngha o gic tin t l s tht bi trong vic nhn ra dollar, hay bt c n v tin t no khc, ang tng hay gim gi tr. Cc nghin cu sau a ra nhng m hnh ton hc phc tp thuyt minh gi thuyt ny, chng hn nghin cu Fehr, Ernst and Jean-Robert Tyran (2004). o gic tin t thng xy ra trong mi trng lm pht. Don Patinkin (1922-1995) iu tra thy gi d gim tin cng danh ngha i 2% trong iu kin vt gi chung khng i, th ngi lao ng s nhn ra ngay. Nhng nu tng tin cng thm 2% trong iu kin mc gi chung tng ti 4% th ngi lao ng li khng nhn thy l tin cng thc t ca mnh b gim. Mt khc, tng tin cng danh ngha vi mt t l bng t l lm pht, ngha l tin cng thc t khng i, th ngi lao ng s cho rng thu nhp ca mnh tng ln v c th tiu dng nhiu hn. o gic tin t khin cho quyt nh ca cc ch th kinh t tr nn khng chnh xc v hnh vi kinh t ca h b lm mo m. Gi c, do , khng linh hot. T dn n nn kinh t c th trng thi mt cn bng v thiu hiu qu. y l mt trong nhng l lun kinh t hc vi m c bn ca kinh t hc Keynes. Tuy nhin, cc trng phi kinh t hc khc Keynes ph nhn gi thuyt v o gic tin t v h pht trin cc l lun kinh t hc phn bc li, chng hn nh cc l lun ca Lucas (1972) v cc l lun ca Ch ngha tin t. Cc nghin cu gn y v o gic tin t thng l nhng nghin cu thc nghim tm ra bng chng chp nhn hoc bc b gi thuyt ny. Tuy nhin, kt lun ca cc nghin cu ny khng thng nht.

Tham kho
Lucas, Robert (1972), "Expectations and the Neutrality of Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 4, pp.103124. Patinkin, Don (1965), Money, Interest and Prices, 2nd ed, New York: Harper and Row. Fehr, Ernst and Jean-Robert Tyran (2004): Money Illusion and Coordination Failure. CESifo WP no. 1141. Money Illusion [1] Th loi:Kinh t hc tin t Th loi:Ch ngha Keynes

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / www2. wiwi. hu-berlin. de/ institute/ wpol/ html/ Bounded_Rationality_WS0506/ 05_money_illusion. pdf

Lnh o gi

79

Lnh o gi
Lnh o gi l cch mt doanh nghip p t gi ln th trng da trn cc yu t li th ca mnh. Gi ca ton th trng s ph thuc vo gi ca mt doanh nghip.

Cc trng hp c th lnh o gi
1. c quyn: Doanh nghip c quyn trn th trng v sn phm, dch v no . Nh ngnh in, vin thng, du kh, xng du Vit Nam c c quyn trong mt thi gian di. 2. c quyn cng ngh: nh Xerox gi c quyn v my photocopy sut 17 nm. 3. u th i trc: do doanh nghip vo th trng sm, cha pht sinh i th cnh tranh. 4. u th s lng ln: do doanh nghip u t v c sn lng rt ln, chi phi th trng. 5. u th th phn: doanh nghip ang c th phn ln nn p o c cc i th, d t gi.

Hu qu ca lnh o gi
Lnh o gi c th dn n vic suy gim sc cnh tranh ca chnh bn thn doanh nghip . Hu qu ny thng rt kh khc phc. Khi doanh nghip mt u th lnh o gi, s d b cc i th tn cng o t v thua trn th trng.

Lnh o gi trong qun l kinh t v m

Trong mt s nn kinh t phi, gi c nhiu khi khng c quyt nh bi nguyn l cung-cu m bi mt c quan hu trch no nh trng hp y ban Vt gi Nh nc ca Vit Nam trc y (tin thn ca Cc Qun l Gi, B Ti chnh hin nay). Trng hp ny cng l lnh o gi.

Tham kho
Cm nang qun tr doanh nghip, VSDC, VCCI, 2004. Th loi:Tip th Th loi:Ti chnh Th loi:Ti chnh doanh nghip Th loi:K ton Th loi:K ton qun tr Th loi:Qun tr chin lc

Gi thuyt chi ph da giy

80

Gi thuyt chi ph da giy

Gi thuyt chi ph da giy l mt gi thuyt ca trng phi kinh t hc Keynes mi nhm khng nh rng gi c cng nhc trong ngn hn l do c s tn ti ca chi ph iu chnh gi c. Gi thuyt xut pht t thut ng kinh t "chi ph da giy" ch mt kiu tc hi ca lm pht. Thut ng ny mn hnh nh khi gi c tng ln ngi ta phi n ngn hng thng xuyn hn rt tin v tiu v vic i li nhiu hn ny lm cho giy chng b rch hn. Gi thuyt chi ph da giy bin lun rng rng vic phn ng trc nhng thay i ca gi c ca mt b phn cc hng ha trn th trng l chi ph c hi (thi gian, sc lc, ngun lc khc) ca doanh nghip. Do , doanh nghip nht thi (hay trong ngn hn) c th khng tng gi sn phm ca mnh; v do , gi c chung ca th trng c th thay i rt chm trong ngn hn.

81

Cc h thng kinh t
Kinh t th trng
Cc h thng kinh t
Kinh t t bn ch ngha Kinh t x hi ch ngha Kinh t th trng Kinh t k hoch Kinh t hn hp Ch ngha x hi th trng Kinh t th trng nh hng x hi ch ngha Kinh t th trng x hi Kinh t chuyn i Kinh t m Kinh t khp kn Kinh t t cung t cp Kinh t hng ha Kinh t tin t

Kinh t th trng l nn kinh t m trong ngi mua v ngi bn tc ng vi nhau theo quy lut cung cu, gi tr xc nh gi c v s lng hng ho, dch v trn th trng.

u im
Trong nn kinh t th trng, nu lng cu hng ha cao hn lng cung, th gi c hng ha s tng ln, mc li nhun cng tng khuyn khch ngi sn xut tng lng cung. Ngi sn xut no c c ch sn xut hiu qu hn, th cng c t sut li nhun cao hn cho php tng quy m sn xut, v do cc ngun lc sn xut s chy v pha nhng ngi sn xut hiu qu. Nhng ngi sn xut c c ch sn xut km hiu qu s c t sut li nhun thp, kh nng mua ngun lc sn xut thp, sc cnh tranh km s b o thi.

Nhc im
C ch phn b ngun lc trong nn kinh t th trng c th dn ti bt bnh ng. y l cha k vn thng tin khng hon ho c th dn ti vic phn b ngun lc khng hiu qu. Do mt s nguyn nhn, gi c c th khng linh hot trong cc khong thi gian ngn hn khin cho vic iu chnh cung cu khng sun s, dn ti khong cch gia tng cung v tng cu. y l nguyn nhn ca cc hin tng tht nghip, lm pht. Trong thc t hin nay, khng c mt nn kinh t th trng hon ho, cng nh khng c nn kinh t k hoch ha tp trung hon ton (tr nn kinh t Bc Triu Tin). Thay vo l nn kinh t hn hp. Ty mi nc m cc yu t th trng nhiu hay t. Trong thng mi quc t, mc th trng ha nn kinh t c th c s dng lm tiu ch trong xc nh iu kin thng mi gia hai

Kinh t th trng

82

Lin kt ngoi
Kinh t th trng l g? [1] Kh v "nn kinh t phi th trng" [2] th loi:h thng kinh t th loi:thut ng kinh t

Ch thch
[1] http:/ / usinfo. state. gov/ products/ pubs/ market/ homepage. htm [2] http:/ / www. saigontimes. com. vn/ tbktsg/ detail. asp?muc=11& Sobao=829& sott=28

Kinh t k hoch

83

Kinh t k hoch
Cc h thng kinh t
Kinh t t bn ch ngha Kinh t x hi ch ngha Kinh t th trng Kinh t k hoch Kinh t hn hp Ch ngha x hi th trng Kinh t th trng nh hng x hi ch ngha Kinh t th trng x hi Kinh t chuyn i Kinh t m Kinh t khp kn Kinh t t cung t cp Kinh t hng ha Kinh t tin t

Kinh t k hoch (cn c gi l nn kinh t k hoch tp trung hoc nn kinh t ch huy) l mt nn kinh t trong Nh nc kim sot ton b cc yu t sn xut v gi quyn quyt nh vic s dng cc yu t sn xut cng nh phn phi v thu nhp. Trong mt nn kinh t nh vy, cc nh lm k hoch quyt nh loi v khi lng hng ha no s c sn xut, cc x nghip thc thi vic sn xut ny, tri ngc vi mt nn kinh t phi k hoch. Cc nn kinh t k hoch ln tng tn ti trc y l Lin X v Trung Quc (trong thi k i nhy vt). Vo u nhng thp nin 1980 v thp nin 1990, chnh ph cc nc dn ni lng cc bin php kim sot, cho php cc yu t t nhn tham gia vo quyt nh sn xut, nh gi v phn phi sn phm. n nay, hu ht cc nc trn th gii thuc nn kinh t hn hp thay v l kinh t k hoch hay kinh t t bn ch ngha thun ty. Mt s nc hin pht trin theo kiu nn kinh t k hoch gm Cuba, Libya, Bc Triu Tin, Saudi Arabia, Belarus, v Myanmar [1] Tham kho
[1] 1

von Brabant, Jozef M. The Planned Economies and International Economic Organizations, Cambridge University Press, 1991, p. 16
50px Bi ny cn s khai. Mi bn gp sc vit thm (http:/ / vi. wikipedia. org/ w/ index. php?title=Kinh_t_k_hoch& action=edit) bi c hon thin hn. Xem phn tr gip v cch sa bi.

Th loi:S khai Th loi:H thng kinh t Th loi:Thut ng kinh t

Kinh t hn hp

84

Kinh t hn hp
Cc h thng kinh t
Kinh t t bn ch ngha Kinh t x hi ch ngha Kinh t th trng Kinh t k hoch Kinh t hn hp Ch ngha x hi th trng Kinh t th trng nh hng x hi ch ngha Kinh t th trng x hi Kinh t chuyn i Kinh t m Kinh t khp kn Kinh t t cung t cp Kinh t hng ha Kinh t tin t

Nn kinh t hn hp l mt nn kinh t pha trn nhng c im ca cc h thng kinh t khc nhau. iu ny thng c hiu l mt nn kinh t bao gm c doanh nghip t nhn ln quc doanh, hoc kt hp cc yu t t bn ch ngha v x hi ch ngha, hoc kt hp gia kinh t th trng v kinh t ch huy. C nhiu nh ngha v kinh t hn hp, nhng tu trung li c mt s im chung: c mt mc t do kinh t (bao gm cc ngnh kinh doanh t nhn) kt hp vi kinh t k hoch tp trung (c th can thip vo phc li x hi, s s hu ca nh nc i vi mt s phng tin lao ng). Theo li nh Kinh t v lch s Robert Hessen: "Khng bao gi c mt nn kinh t t do hon ton, nhng s can thip ca chnh ph vo cc hot ng kinh t tng cao t cui th k 18, c bit sau thi k i Khng hong. Nc M ngy nay, mt tng i ca ch ngha t bn, l mt nn kinh t hn hp trong a ra nhng u i hoc ngn cn chng vi mt nguyn tc r rng v nht qun no"[1]

Ch thch
[1] Economy Library (http:/ / www. econlib. org/ library/ Enc/ Capitalism. html)

Kinh t hn hp Th loi:H thng kinh t Th loi:Thut ng kinh t

Ngun v ngi ng gp vo bi

85

Ngun v ngi ng gp vo bi
Kinh t hc v m Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10483022 Ngi ng gp: Apple, Bnh Giang, Dinh Dao Anh Thuy, Duongdttt, Khttabt, Mekong Bluesman, Mightyzero, Mth, Nguyn Thanh Quang, Nguyn hng thin, Randall uob, SayoriV, Thuytien91, Tnt1984, Tran0074, Trinhanhtuanqt94dl, Trungda, Vng Ngn H, 17 sa i v danh Tng sn phm ni a Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=11083648 Ngi ng gp: Anhkietha, Apple, Bnh Giang, Chihuong bk, Ctmt, Dinh Dao Anh Thuy, Doanmanhtung.sc, Duongdttt, Duyt-ph, Handyhuy, Jhonwoo, Jspeed1310, Kien1980v, Lu Ly, Meem, Mekong Bluesman, Meotrangden, Minhthanhics, Mxn, NamHyHoangPhong, Nguyn Thanh Quang, Phan Ba, Sillyquytien, Tieu ngao giang ho1970, Tjenvn, Tttrung, T M, Vinhtantran, Vinx, Vng Ngn H, 37 sa i v danh S nhn (kinh t hc) Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=11023081 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang Tht nghip Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10494272 Ngi ng gp: Ashitagaarusa, Bnh Giang, Casablanca1911, Dammio, Ditimchanly, Doanvanvung, L TN LC, Nguyn Thanh Quang, Randall uob, TDA, Trungda, 6 sa i v danh Lm pht Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10564222 Ngi ng gp: Abcvn123, Bnh Giang, CNBH, ChrisMango, Chuthang, Ctmt, Cunbong1412, Dinh Dao Anh Thuy, Doanmanhtung.sc, FOM, Kd, Mekong Bluesman, Milk Coffee, Mxn, Nghiemhung1, Nguyn Th H, Nhnbeta, Phan Ba, Phuvinh, Randall uob, Sfjkdl, Sillyquytien, Stockmoney 101, TDA, Tieu ngao giang ho1970, Tnt1984, Ttienngoc, Vng Ngn H, Yanajin33, 56 sa i v danh Tin Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10474129 Ngi ng gp: A 2012, Bongdentoiac, Bnh Giang, Bt Chin, CNBH, Cheers!, Cherrylcherry, Cuocsong6so, Cng Tri, DHN, Dinh Dao Anh Thuy, Doanmanhtung.sc, Dragonson8, Earthandmoon, Kien1980v, Lu Ly, Magicknight94, Mekong Bluesman, Milk Coffee, Newone, Phan Ba, Porcupine, Pq, Prenn, Quangbao, Quangvudntn, Tieu ngao giang ho1970, Tnt1984, Trongphu, Volga, Vng Ngn H, Yduocizm, 35 sa i v danh Tin t Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10492537 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Cheers!, CommonsDelinker, Doanmanhtung.sc, Donduper, Mekong Bluesman, Newone, Nguyn Thanh Quang, Porcupine, Tieu ngao giang ho1970, Trungda, 11 sa i v danh ng LM Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10488035 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Doanmanhtung.sc, Newone ng IS Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=6987502 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Doanmanhtung.sc, Hongvinhftua, Newone M hnh IS-LM Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10582415 Ngi ng gp: Ashitagaarusa, Doanmanhtung.sc, rmon, 2 sa i v danh Chu k kinh t Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10487999 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Honda3190, Magicknight94, Meotrangden, Minhthanhics, Mxn, NamHyHoangPhong, Ngodangthong, Randall uob, Tamanrasset444, Tieu ngao giang ho1970, Tiuphng, Vinhtantran, a Tnh a Cm, 8 sa i v danh Chnh sch kinh t v m Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=1671098 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Nguyn Thanh Quang, 2 sa i v danh Chnh sch ti chnh Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10488152 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Chopthoico1, Doanmanhtung.sc, Itolemma, Mekong Bluesman, Sontnm, 4 sa i v danh Kch cu Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=9997726 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Mekong Bluesman, Ngocnb, Scooby Doo Tin c s Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=11030266 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Ctmt, DHN, Meotrangden, 2 sa i v danh S nhn tin t Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10492717 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, 2 sa i v danh M hnh Mundell-Fleming Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=11035022 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Doanmanhtung.sc, Thichlaquay, Vinhtantran, rmon, 3 sa i v danh S DD-AA Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=4686524 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, 1 sa i v danh B ba chnh sch khng th ng thi Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=11022358 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Lu Ly, Randall uob Chnh sch thanh khon i ng Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10518374 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang Tng cung Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=11021839 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Trn Nguyn Minh Huy, 2 sa i v danh Tng cu Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=2854448 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Dinhtuydzao M hnh tng cu v tng cung Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10574416 Ngi ng gp: Ashitagaarusa, Doanmanhtung.sc, Tnt1984, Trn Nguyn Minh Huy, Y Kpia Mlo, 5 sa i v danh ng cong Phillips Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10488208 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, 2 sa i v danh Ton dng lao ng Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10574407 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Knight Wolf, Tiengdung90 Tng trng kinh t Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10488181 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Dinh Dao Anh Thuy, Gi ng, Meem, Mekong Bluesman, Muathanggieng, Mi xa em, Nghilevuong, Tieu ngao giang ho1970, 9 sa i v danh M hnh tng trng Solow Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10484836 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Nguyn Thanh Quang, Tieu ngao giang ho1970, T M, Vantri, Wmania, 3 sa i v danh Kinh t hc tn c in Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10537619 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Itolemma Kinh t hc Keynes Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10487515 Ngi ng gp: Apple, Ashitagaarusa, Bnh Giang, DHN, Dinh Dao Anh Thuy, Sparrow, Vng Ngn H, 2 sa i v danh Trng phi kinh t hc v m tng hp Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=352741 Ngi ng gp: Apple, Bnh Giang, Dinh Dao Anh Thuy, Mekong Bluesman Ch ngha tin t Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10487898 Ngi ng gp: Apple, Bnh Giang, Dinh Dao Anh Thuy, 1 sa i v danh Kinh t hc v m c in mi Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10487629 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Itolemma, 1 sa i v danh Kinh t hc Keynes mi Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10495042 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang Nguyn l cung - cu Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10494747 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Dinhtuydzao, Donduper, Dung005, Nguyn Thanh Quang, Nguyn Th H, Tieu ngao giang ho1970, Vinhtantran, 9 sa i v danh Gi c cng nhc Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10547961 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Trungda, 1 sa i v danh o gic tin t Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10518499 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang Lnh o gi Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=2002383 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, Ngocnb, 1 sa i v danh Gi thuyt chi ph da giy Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10518786 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang Kinh t th trng Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=10489635 Ngi ng gp: Bnh Giang, DHN, Dinhtuydzao, Dung005, Levanhen01, Tgcvietnam, 7 sa i v danh

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Image:Emblem-important.svg Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Tp_tin:Emblem-important.svg Giy php: khng r Ngi ng gp: The people from the Tango! project Image:Question book-new.svg Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Tp_tin:Question_book-new.svg Giy php: GNU Free Documentation License Ngi ng gp: Tkgd2007. Original uploader was PeterSymonds at en.wikipedia Image:Ambox question.svg Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Tp_tin:Ambox_question.svg Giy php: Public Domain Ngi ng gp: Mysid, Dsmurat, penubag Image:Wiki letter w.svg Ngun: http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Tp_tin:Wiki_letter_w.svg Giy php: GNU Free Documentation License Ngi ng gp: Jarkko Piiroinen

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