Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

LI NI U
tr thnh mt nh giao dch thnh cng, mt trader thc th th ngoi vic c nn tng phn tch k thut cng nh c bn tt, bn cn phi kt ni c cc th trng ti chnh c vi nhau. Cc th trng nh tri phiu( bonds), c phiu( stocks), hng ha( commodities), tin t( forex) c mi tng tc qua li ln nhau. Nm vng c mi quan h gia cc th trng ny s gip cho bn c ci nhn su hn v nhng g c th xy ra trong tng lai. Nhm gip mi ngi c mt phng php phn tch lin th trng vi cch tip cn hon ton mi trong vic a ra quyt nh khi giao dch trong cc th trng ti chnh, c bit l trong th trng forex, ti xin trn trng n cc bn mt n phm c bit m ti su tp v bin dch li. Khi c xong bi vit ny, cc bn c th bit cch kt ni cc d liu t cc th trng chng khon, th trng n, th trng hng ha vo trong vic phn tch th trng forex. Ti hy vng, khi cc bn c xong n phm ny s hiu c th trng ang xy ra iu g, ci m th trng ang quan tm nht, v t mnh tr li c cu hi ti sao?

I-TNG QUAN V VIC PHN TCH LIN TH TRNG

Hu ht cc trades u nhn mnh n vai tr ca thng tin c bn v d liu gi ca ring mt th trng trong vic phn tch th trng cho mc ch nh gi v d bo xu hng. Cc trader khng nhng cn phi phi nhn li hnh ng gi trong qu kh t hnh ng gi hin thi vo trong vin cnh m cn phi hng n vic d bo nhng g c th xy ra nhm gip phn tch ca h c th thnh cng trong th gii giao dch thc. Tuy vy c th nhn v pha trc vi s t tin, cc traders cn phi nhn theo mt hng khc, l theo di xem nhng g ang xy ra trong cc th trng c lin quan, cc th trng ny c mt nh hng mnh n hnh ng gi trong th trng mc tiu ca chng ta( ci ny c th gi tt l phn tch lin th trng). Th trng c v nh l mt con th ln v d gy nhm ln cho nh u t. Vi hng lot cc ch s, hng ngn cch phn loi c phiu, n c th git cht cc nh u t ho thng bt c lc no. Nhng nu chng ta hiu c cc th trng( c phiu, hng ha, tri phiu, tin t) c mi lin h tng tc vi nhau nh th no, th mt bc tranh ton cnh s hin ra trc mt chng ta r rng hn. Vic hiu c mi h gia cc th trng cng c th dn a chng ta thnh cc nh u t thng minh.

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Trong hu ht cc ch k, c mt trt t chung c lp ra, trong c 4 th trng(c phiu, hng ha, tri phiu, tin t) u cng di chuyn. Bng cch quan st tt c chng, bn s c ci nhn tt hn nh gi hng i m mt th trng s dch chuyn. Tt c bn th trng lm vic cng vi nhau. Mt trong s chng di chuyn cng chiu vi nhau v mt s khc th ngc li. Gi chng ta hy tm xem cc th trng hng ha, tri phiu, c phiu, v tin t tng tc vi nhau nh th no. Khi gi hng ha tng, chi ph hng ha c y ln. Vic gi hng ha ngy cng gia tng l biu hin ca lm pht(inflationary), v khi li sut cng tng ln theo lm pht. V mi quan h gia li sut v gi tri phiu l quan h nghch o, cho nn gi tri phiu s gim khi li sut gia tng.

Nhn chung th ga tri phiu v c phiu c mi tng quan vi nhau. Khi gi tri phiu bt u gim, c phiu cui cng cng s gim theo. V lc ny chi ph vay mn tr ln t hn v chi ph hot ng ca doanh nghip cng gia tng do lm pht, cho nn khng c g l sai khi nhn nh rng c phiu ca cc cng ty cng s gim theo. Xin nhc li mt ln na l c mt tr nht nh trong quan h gia tri phiu gim v dn ti kt qu l th trng chng khon cng gim theo.

Cc th trng tin t c tc ng ti mi th trng, nhng tc ng chnh nht l vo th trng hng ha. Ga hng ha li c nh hng ti gi tri phiu v sau l c phiu. ng USD v gi hng ha ni chun c xu hng dch chuyn theo cc hng ngc nhau. Khi ng USD gim tng i so vi cc ng tin khc, s phn ng c th c thy ngay trong gi hng ha( v chng vn c tnh da trn ng USD) Hai bng c trnh by di y m t mi quan h c bn gia cc th trng. Bng di chuyn t tri qua phi v im bt u c th l bt c no trong dng ( row). Kt qu ca s dch chuyn t mt th trng no ti mt thi trng khc s c phn nh bn phi.

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Hy nh rng c mt s phn ng tr gia khng phi mi th u cng xy ra cng mt lc. Trong sut thi gian tr , nhiu yu t khc xy ra v ng vai tr chi phi chnh. V vy nu xy ra qu nhiu s tr v thnh thong cc th trng ngc nhau ang di chuyn theo mt hng ging nhu m ng l ra chng phi di chuyn ngc nhau, th y chnh l c hi cho cc nh u t kim li nu h bit cch p dng mi lin h lin th trng va c ti cp ti trn. ng dng Vic phn tch lin th trng(Intermarke) khng phi l mt phng php m c th cung cp cho bc cc tn hiu mua v bn c th Tuy nhin, n s cung cp cho bn mt cng c xc nhn xu hng tuyt vi, cng nh a ra cc cnh bo v kh nng o chiu c th c xy ra. V gi hng ha leo thang trong mi trng lm pht, n ch l vn thi gian trc khi cc hiu ng tiu cc xy ra i vi nn kinh t. Nu gi hng ha gia tng, tri phiu bt u quay u gim, c phiu tuy vy c th vn ang cn mc cao. Mi quan h ny cui cng s ln t v chin thng tng ca cc c phiu. V vy c phiu s b buc phi gim, ch l vn thi gian m thi. Nh cp, hng ha gia tng v tri phiu bt u gim khng phi l mt tn hiu bn bn( sell) trong th trng chng khon ngay. n gin n ch a ra cnh bo rng mt s o chiu c kh nng xy ra trong mt vi thng ti cho ti mt nm nu c phiu tip tc xung thp hn na. Bn vn s kim c mt khon li nhun ng k trong thi trng chng khon trong sut qung thi gian . V ci m chng ta cn phi theo di l xem liu gi c phiu c ph v cc mc h tr quan trng cng nh nm bn di cc ng trung bnh( MA) khng sau khi gi c phiu bt u gim. iu ny s mang n cho bn mt s xc nhn rng mi quan h lin th trng ang chim ch o v gi c phiu ang chun b o chiu.

Mi quan h ny c lun lun ng khng?

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Lun lun tn ti mi quan h gia cc th trng ny, tuy vy vn c nhng thi im m mi quan h nh chng ta phn tch trn b ph v. Trong sut thi k ca cuc khng hong Chu nm 1997, th trng M cho thy mt s tch ring ra gia c phiu v tri phiu( gi c phiu gim khi gi tri phiu tng v ngc li c phiu tng khi tri phiu gim). iu ny vi phm mi qua h tng quan dng gia gi tri phiu v c phiu nh ta phn tch phn trn v to ra mt s di chuyn tch ri nhau ra gia gi c phiu v tri phiu ko di trong nhiu nm qua. Cc s kin gim pht ln tip tc din ra sau l bong bong trn th trng chng khon Nasdaq nm 2000 v tung( hay cn gi l bong bong dot.com), bong bng nh t M nm 2006 v mi y nht l cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu nm 2007-2008.

Din bin gi tri phiu v c phiu giai on t thng 7/2008 ti thng 4/2011 Ti sao li xy iu s tch bit gia gi c phiu v tri phiu trong sut giai on t nm 1997 ti nay? Mi quan h lin th trng m chng ta phn tch thng l da

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets A New Thinking Marketstrn gi nh trong mt mi tr ng kinh t lm pht. V vy, khi chng ta sng trong mi y, trng gim pht(deflationary), th mi quan h s b thay i. ng th Thng thng gim pht s lm cho th trng chng khon st gim. Khng c s tng m th ng trng tim nng trong cc c phiu( hay cc cng ty), th c rt t kh nng chng c ng t th tng gi . Ga tri phiu, mt mt khc, s dch chuyn ngy cng cao hn tng ngy ng vi li sut ngy cng gi y gim( hy nh li mt ln na, gi tri phiu v li sut di v chuyn nghch chiu nhau). V v chng ta phi nhn ra c mi tr vy ng kinh t m chng ta ang sng, nhm xc nh ng, c tt hn liu c phiu v gi tri phiu s c phi mi tng quan dng hay m. ng

Mc tng gim ca ch s S&P 500, gi hng ha, ch s USD-index v gi tri phiu giai ch index phi on t ngy 28/5/2008 n ngy 13/3/2009 n t Ti mt thi im no , c th chng ta s thy mt trong s cc th trng trn hu o th tr nh khng dch chyn. Tuy vy, iu n khng c ngha l cc quy tc khc m chng ch ny c m

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

ta bn tho khng cn ng dng c. Cho v d, nu gi hng ha ngng tng, nhng ng usd M lin tc mt gi, th iu ny thng l tn hiu gim gi cho c c phiu v tri phiu. Mi quan h c bn vn cn c gi ng, ngay c khi mt th trng no khng chuyn ng. iu ny do lun lun c rt nhiu yu t khc cng ang hot ng trong nn kinh t Cng vy, khi nhiu cng ty c quy m ngy cng ln trn phm vi ton cu, th cc cng ty ny ngy cng ng mt vai tr ln trong hng i ca th trng chng khon. V cc cng ty khng ngng m rng quy m, nn mi quan h gia th trng chng khon v tin t c th tr thnh mt mi quan h nghch o. iu ny l do khi cc cng ty cng m rng hot ng u t ra nc ngoi nhiu hn, th gi tr ca ng tin kim c mang tr li nc M s gia tng khi ng USD gim xung. c th ng dng hiu qu vic phn tch lin th trng, th iu quan trng cn phi hiu c ng lc thay i ca nn kinh ton cu khi c bt c trch hng no trong mi quan h ca cc loi ti sn.

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Din bin ca gi hng ha, tri phiu M, ch s USD-Index, ch s S&P500 t nm 1990-4/20111

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Vy lm th no chng ta nhn ra c mi trng kinh t m chng ta ang sng, y khng phi l mt cu hi d c cu tr li. Tip theo ti xin trnh by cch m mt s nh kinh t hc trn th gii vn thng lm xc nh c thc cht mi trng kinh t hin ti ca chng ta ang sng l g? l cch phn tch chu k kinh t (Business Cycle). Hnh bn di trnh by chu k kinh t l tng v mi quan lin th trng trong mt mi trng lm pht bnh thng. Chu kinh t c th hin nh l mt sng hnh sin(sine wave). Ba giai on u l cc phn ca mt s bp cht kinh t(economic contraction): suy yu, lp y v phc hi. Giai on 3 tuy th hin nn kinh t vn trong thi k thu hp nhng gia tng mnh sau khi lp y giai on 2. Khi sng sin ct ngang quan ng gia, nn kinh t lc nay dch chuyn t co s co hp sang ba giai on khuch trng kinh t(economic expansion): tng trng, chm nh v suy yu. Giai on 6 cho thy nn kinh t tuy cng ang trong thi k m rng nhng ang dn suy yu sau khi lp nh.

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets A New Thinking Markets-

Gia on 1 cho thy nn kinh t ang co hp v gi tri phiu bt u tng do li sut y v u l gim. Mt chnh sch tin t ni lng v li sut thp s c p dng khi nn kinh t suy m. v c yu. Li sut thp thng dn n s tng gi ca tri phiu. ng Giai on 2 nn kinh v th trng chng khon to y. Mc du cc iu kin kinh t th ng ki bt xu i, nhng nn kinh t vn cha bc vo giai on m rng hoc pht trin ng t n thc s. Tuy vy, th trng chng khon ng c k vng s bc vo thi k tng trng i tr tr li do to y trc khi thi k thu hp thc s chm dt. c

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Giai on 3 cho thy mt s ci thin rt ln trong tnh trng kinh t khi m chu k kinh t chun b bc vo thi k tng trng. C phiu tng gi mnh v hng ha c k vng s tng gi theo. Giai on 4 nh u thi k tng trng bng n. C c phiu v hng ha u tng gi mnh, tuy vy tri phiu li bt u gim gi do s tng trng lm gia tng p lc lm pht v li sut cng tng ln kim ch lm pht. Giai on 5 nh du nh trong s tng trng ca nn kinh t v th trng chng khon. Mc du s tng trng vn tip tc nhng nn kinh t lc ny tng trng vi tc chm hn do s gia tng ca li sut v gi hng ha lm gia tng chi ph cho nn kinh t. Th trng chng khon c d bo bc vo thi k thu hp do to nh trc khi s tng trng thc s kt thc. Ga hng ha vn cn mnh v to nh sau th trng chng khon Giai on 6 nh du mt s suy gim mnh trong nn kinh t khi m chu k kinh t chun b chuyn t thi k m rng sang thi k co hp. C phiu bt u h gi v hng ha cng gim theo do d bo nhu cu hng ha s gim trong mt nn kinh t ngy cng suy yu.

Hy ghi nh tht k rng nhng iu m chng ta va bn trn l trong mt mi trng lm pht. C phiu v tri phiu tng gi cng nhau trong giai oan 2 v 3. Tng t nh vy, c hai cng gim trong cc giai on 5 v 6. Tuy vy iu ny s khng ng trong mi trng gim pht, khi c phiu v tri phiu di chuyn theo hng ngc chiu nhau.

II- PHN TCH LIN TH TRNG TRONG TH TRNG FOREX

Cng ging nh trong vic phn tch lin th trng, trong th trng forex, bn khng th l i bi cnh lin th trng c nh hng n th trng m bn ang giao dch. Bn cng cn phi phn tch hnh vi ca mi ring mt th trng thy c cc mu hnh 2 nh(double tops) hoc ng trenlines b ph v hoc cc ch bo hi t v phn k m nhiu traders thng hnh ng theo do tm l m ng, dn ti s dch chuyn mnh ca gi. Tuy vy iu quan trng m bn cn phi nh l hy a cc nhn t lin th trng m c nh hng ti th trng m bn ang giao dch vo trong phn tch ca bn Ly v d nu bn mun phn tch gi tr ca Euro so vi USD, bn khng nhng phi xem xt cc d liu lin quan n ng Euro m cn phi tm kim d liu cho cc th trng c lin quan khc tm ra cc mu hnh v quan h b che giu m c th nh hng ti cp EUR/USD, nh bn c th thy hnh 1 di y:

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Australian dollar/U.S. dollar (AUD/USD) Australian dollar/Japanese yen (AUD/JPY) British pound Euro/Canadian dollar (EUR/CAD) Gold Nasdaq 100 Index British pound/Japanese yen (GBP/JPY) British pound/U.S. dollar (GBP/USD) Japanese yen

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Ly v d tip theo khi bn ang giao dch cp tin USD/JPY, bn cn phi thit lp ra c mi quan lin th trng bao gm cc th trng sau y: 10-year U.S. Treasury notes- tri phiu phiu kho bc trung hn 10- nm ca M Euro/Japanese yen (EUR/JPY) Gold Euro/Canadian dollar (EUR/CAD) Euro/U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) British pound/Swiss franc (GBP/CHF) Crude oil Nikkei 225 stock average S&P 500 Index Nhiu mi quan h lin th trng l hin nhin, nhng nhiu ci khc c v nh xa hn v khng c lin quan, v d nh tm quan trng ca ch s chng khon M, tri phiu kho bc M hoc gi du th trong vic nh gi cp USD/JPY. Cc nghin cu kim chng rng cc th trng lin quan n th trng forex c mt tc ng cc ln ln th trng forex v c th cung cp cc nhn bit sm ban u xc hng i ca th trng forex trong tng lai. Thm vo , thng qua cc phn tch, d liu c lin quan ti nhng s kin nh thm ha thin nhin M cng c th a vo trong cc m hnh d bo, cng vi ring th trng , lin th trng, v cc d liu c bn. -Vng, du v th trng forex Trong mt s trng hp, mi quan h l o ngc, c bit do vng v du c nh gi bng USD trong thng mi quc t. Nu bn xem xt th so snh gi vng v gi tr USD( Hnh s 2 bn di), bn s thy rng khi ng USD gim, khng nhng cc ng tin khc tng gi m vng cng tng gi theo. Nghin cu trn d liu t vi nm trc cho thy mt mi tng quan m gia vng v USD, vo khong -0.9. iu ny ni ln rng chng hu nh khng di chuyn song song vi nhau, tc gn nh lun lun chng di chuyn ngc chiu nhau.

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Mt mt khc Gi tr ca cp EUR/USD so vi gi vng, cho thy mt mi tng quan dng, ngha l gi tr ca cp euro v gi vng thng c xu hng di chuyn cng chiu nhau, ng rng c hai th trng ny u c hng li khi cc qu u t dch chuyn vn ra khi ng USD( hnh s 3 bn di).

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

V gi vng l thnh phn quan trng trong vic phn tch lin th trng ca th trng forex. Nu bn nhn thy mt xu hng hoc tn hiu gi trn th vng, c th l mt manh mi tt cho vic chun b t lnh trong th trng forex, khi m vn cha c s dch chuyn ga r nt trong th trng forex. Hoc ngc li : mt s dch chuyn ca forex c th bo cho chng ta bit trc s dch chuyn ca vng. Mt trong cc yu t dn ti s tng gi ca gi du l s suy yu ca ng USD khi cc nh sn xut du nc ngoi xem s tng gi trong gi du m nh l cch duy tr sc mua ca h( do hng ha trong thng mi quc t c nh gi bng ng usd). Mt cch i ph vi nhng tc ng ca gi du cao hn l ng usd yu hn, m iu ny c th dn ti mt thi k lm pht nh n.

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Du l th hng ha chnh thc dy tng trng kinh t ton cu, v gi du v forex c mi quan h mnh trong nn kinh t ton cu. Cho v d, khi gi du tng vt, n s lm tn thng nn kinh t Nht bn, quc gia ny phi nhp khu hu ht cc nng lng cn thit. V vy s lm cho ng yn suy yu. Tuy vy vic ga du tng cao s lam cho mt s quc gia khc hng li, v d nh Anh, quc gia sn xut du m. V ng nhin khi ng bng anh s c gia tng gi tr. Do du ng vi tr ch o trong thng mi v kinh doanh ton cu, cho nn khi c bt c iu g xy ra nh hng ti ngun cung hoc phn phi th u c kh nng gy ra tc ng ln th trng forex. l l do ti sao m cc cuc tn cng khng b hoc thm ha thin nhin xy ra nh bo Katrina dn ti s gin on trong ngun cung du thng gy ra mt phn ng ngay tc th trong th trng forex. Mt s thay i t ngt trong vic chn ng euro l ng tin ch nh trong cc hp ng du m thay v ng usd nh cch m cac nh sn xut du Trung ng thnh thong hay lm, cng c th gy ra mt s st gim ngay lp tc v gi tr ca ng usd

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Trn y l nhng nt khi qut gip cc bn hnh dung cch phn tch lin th trng trong th trng forex. Phn tip theo ti s phn tch k hn v cc yu t c bn, cng nh cc th trng khc tc ng n mt s cp tin trong th trng forex nh th no.

CC YU T C BN CHNH TC NG N NG USD
1-Federal Reserve Bank (Fed): Ngn hng trung ng M hon ton c lp trong vic a ra cc chnh sch tin t nhm t c mc tiu tng trng ti a m khng c lm pht. Cc tn hiu chnh sch chnh ca Fed bao gm: y ban th trng m( FOMC), li sut chit khu(the Discount Rate), li sut tin qu lin bang(the Fed Funds rate) -y ban th trng m(Federal Open Market Committee , vit tt l FOMC): y ban th trng m chu trch nhim trong vic a ra cc quyt nh v chnh sch, bao gm cc thng bo v li sut ch cht, FOMC nhm hp 8 nm mt ln. Mi hai thnh vin ca y ban bao gm 7 thnh vin ca hi ng thng c, ch tch Fed ti bang New York v 4 thnh vin cn li c bu chn lun phin mi nm trong tng s cc ch tch Fed 11 bang cn li - Li sut tin qu lin bang: y l mc li sut gn nh l quan trng nht. N l mc li sut cho vay qua m trn th trng lin ngn hng( li sut m cc ngn hng vay mn ln nhau). Fed thng bo nhng thay i trong Fed Funds rate khi n mun pht i nhng tn hiu r rng v chnh sch li sut. Nhng thng bo ny thng c mt tc ng rt ln ln tt c cc th trng c phiu, tri phiu v tht trng tin t Li sut chit khu(Discount Rate): Mc li sut m ti Fed cung cp cho cc ngn hng thng mi vay nhm p ng yu cu thanh khon. Mc du y l li sut mang tnh biu tng nhiu hn, nhng nhng thay i trong n thng ng nhng tn hiu v chnh sch mt cch r rng. Li sut ti chit khu ny th km quan trong hn so vi li sut tin qu lin bang. 2-Tri phiu kho bc 30- nm: tri phiu kho bc 30-nm, hay cn gi l tri phiu di hn hoc tri phiu ch o. N lm mt ch bo quan trng v k vng ca th trng i vi lm pht. Phn ln th trng u s dng li tc( hn l s dng gi) khi tham chiu n tri phiu. Nh tt c mi loi tri phiu, li tc ca tri phiu kho bc 30-nm c mi quan h nghch chiu vi gi. Hin vn cha c mi quan h r rng gia tri phiu di hn v ng usd. Nhng hy ghi nh iu thng thng sau y: Mt s st gim trong gi ca phiu( tc mt s gia tng trong li tc) do nhng mi quan ngi v

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

lm pht c th to ra p lc i vi ng usd. Nhng mi quan ngi ny pht sinh t mt nn kinh t tng trng mnh . Tuy vy, khi m ngun cung tri phiu bt u gim do hot ng ti ti tr ca B ti chnh M( bng cch mua li cc khon n), th vai tr ca tri phiu 30 nh l mt tham chiu chun(benchmark) dn dn nhng li cho tri phiu trung hn k hn 10 nm. Ty thuc vo chng ta ang giai on no ca chu k kinh t(economic cycle), m d liu cho thy mt nn kinh t pht trin mnh c th c nhng tc ng khc nhau ln ng usd. Trong mt mi trng m lm pht khng phi l mt mi e dom th cc d liu kinh t mnh c th h tr cho ng USD. Nhng ti thi k m mi e da lm pht l ang khn cp nht( yu cu mt mc li sut cao hn), th cc d liu kinh t mnh li lm tn thng ng USD do nh u t bn tho cc tri phiu chnh ph M. ng vai tr l lp ti sn tham chiu, tri phiu di hn thng b tc ng bi vic dch chuyn cc dng vn do s ton cu ha. Nhng bt n v ti chnh v chnh tr ti cc th trng mi ni c th l iu tch cc thc y cc tri phiu kho bc M do tnh cht an ton vn c ca chng, iu ny gp phn gip ng USD tng gi. 3-Three-month Eurodollar Deposits: cc khon k gi Eurodollar l cc khon tin gi bng ng usd ti cc ngn hng v cc t chc ti chnh bn ngoi nc M. Tng t nh vy cc khon tin gi bng ng yn ti cc ngn hng nc ngoi bn ngoi nc Nht c gi l euroyen. Li sut ca cc khon tin gi bng ng usd ti cc ngn hng bn ngoi nc M c gi l sut Eurodollar. N c coi nh l mt im chun gi tr trong vic xc nh s khc bit li sut gip c lng t gi ngoi hi. minh ha hy ly cp USD/JPY, s khc bit li sut cng ln theo hng c li cho Eurodollar so vi Euroyen( cc khon tin gi bng USD c li sut cao hn so vi cc khon tin gi bng ng yn), th cng c nhiu kh nng cp USD/JPY s c thc y tng gi. Thnh thong, mi quan h ny khng c gi ng do nh hng ca cc yu t khc. 4-Ten-year Treasury Note: Th trng Fx thng tham chiu n tri phiu trung hn 10 nm khi so snh li tc ca n vi cc tri phiu c thi hn o hn tng t nc ngoi, c th l eruo( i din l tri phiu chnh ph 10 nm ca c), Nht bn( tri phiu 10 nm) v Nht bn, tri phiu Anh( k hn 10 nm). S khc bit gia li trc ca cc tri phiu trung hn 10 nm ca M vi li tc ca cc tri phiu khc vi k hn tng t c tc ng ln t gi hi oi. Mt mc li tc cao hn trong tri phiu M thng lm cho ng USD tng gi so vi cc ng tin khc. Treasury: The US Treasury is responsible for issuing government debt and making decisions on the fiscal budget. The Treasury has no impact on monetary policy, but its statements regarding the dollar have a major influence on the currency.

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Treasury: B ti chnh M chu trch nhim trong vic pht hnh n chnh ph v a ra cc quyt nh v ngn sch. B ti chnh khng c nh hng i vi cc quyt nh v chnh sch tin t, nhng nhng bn bo co lin quan n ng usd ca h c mt tc ng ln ln ng tin ny. 5-Economic Data: Cc d liu kinh t quan trng nht M l: bo co v th tng lao ng(payrolls, t l tht nghip v tin lng bnh qun mi gi), cc ch s CPI, PPI, GDP, cn cn thng mi, ECI, NAPM, sn lng cng nghip, s lng nh c khi cng xy mi, s lng giy php xy dng c cp, v nim tin ca ngi tiu dng. 6-Stock Market: c ba ch s th trng chng khon chnh l Dow Jones Industrials Index (Dow), S&P 500, v NASDAQ. Dow l ch s c nh hng nhiu nht ti ng usd. T gia thp nin 1990, ch s ny cho thy mt tng quan dng kh mnh vi ng bc xanh do nh u t nc ngoi mua mnh c phiu M. Tuy vy mi tng quan dng ny ch ng trong di hn. Cn trong ngn hn, th khi th trng chng khon tng im th ng USD c xu hng b bn tho bi nhu cu tr n n ton ni ng USD gim i. C 3 nhn t chnh nh hng ti ch s Dow l : 1)li nhun d bo v thc t ca cc doanh nghip, 2), k vng li sut, 3) Mi quan tm ca nh u t ton cu i vi chng hon M 7-nh hng ca t gi cho(Cross Rate Effect): gi tr ca ng usd so vi mt ng tin khc thnh thong b nh hng bi mt cp tin khc khng c cha ng usd. Ly v d: mt s gia tng mnh ca ng yn so vi ng euro( tc cp EUR/JPY gim gi) c th dn n mt s mt gi tng th ca ng euro, bao gm c s st gim trong cp EUR/USD. 8-Cc hp ng giao sau li sut tin qu lin bang(Fed Funds Rate Futures Contract): c mt cch d bo v li sut l thng qua li sut tin qu lin bang trong th trng giao sau. Ga tr ca hp ng cho thy nhng g m li sut tin qu lin bang( li sut qua m) c k vng, ph thuc vo thi gian o hn ca hp ng. V vy, hp ng l mt ch bo c gi tr v k vng ca th trng vo chnh sch ca Fed. Li sut thu dc bng cch ly gi tr ca hp ng tr i 100 Three-month Eurodollar Futures Contract: Similar to the Fed Funds futures contract which reflects Fed Funds rate expectations into the future, the three-month Eurodollar futures contract reflects the Eurodollar rate. To illustrate, the difference between futures contracts on the three-month Eurodollar and Euroyen deposits is an essential variable in determining USD/JPY expectations. 9-Hp ng giao sau Eurodollar k hn 3 thng(Three-month Eurodollar Futures Contract): ging nh hp ng giao sau li sut tin qu in bang phn nh k vng v li sut trong tng lai th hp ng giao sau Eurodollar k hn 3 thng phn nh li sut

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

Eurodollar. Ly v d, s khc bit v mc ph gia cc hp ng giao sau ca Eurodollar v Euroyen k hn 3 thng l mt bin quan trng trong vic d bo bin ng ca cp USD/JPY.

NHNG NHN T NH HNG N CP EUR/USD

Ngn hng trung ng chu u(European Central Bank, gi tt l ECB) : ngn hng ng vai tr kim sot chnh sch tin t cho c khu vc eurozone. C quan a ra quyt nh l Hi ng qun tr, hi ng ny bao gm ban lnh o v thng c ngn hng trung ng cc quc gia. Ban lnh o bao gm ch tich ECB, ph ch tch v 4 thnh vin khc. 1-ECB Policy Targets: The primary objective of ECB is price stability consisting of two main "pillars" of monetary policy. The first one is the outlook for price developments and risks to price stability. Price stability is defined as an increase of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) of below 2%. While the HICP is important, a broad number of indicators and forecasts are used to determine the medium-term threat to price stability. The second pillar is monetary growth as measured by M3. The ECB has a "reference value" of 4.5% annual growth for M3. Cc mc tiu chnh sch ca ECB: Mc tiu chnh ca ECB l bnh n gi vi hai tr ct chnh trong chnh sch tin t. Tr ct th nht l vin cnh i vi s pht trin ca gi c v ri ro bnh n gi. Bnh n gi c nh ngha nh l mt s gia tng ca ch s gi tiu dng Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices ( gi tt l HICP) di mc 2%. Trong khi ch s HICP l quan trng, c mt lot cc ch bo v d bo c s dng d xc nh mi e da trong trung hn i vi s bnh n gi. Tr ct th hai l tng mc tng trng cung tin hay cn gi l M3. ECB quy nh mc tng trng hng nm cho M3 vo khong 4.5%. ECB t chc mt cuc hp hi ng vo mi th 5 hng thng a ra cc thng bo v li sut. Ti mi cuc hp u tin ca mi thng, ECB s t chc mt bui hp bo trong o h a ra trin vng chnh sch tin t v cc nh gi v kinh t. 2-Li sut: li sut ti ti tr ca ECB l li sut ngn hn ch yu ca ngn hng ny s dng cho vic to ra tnh thanh khon cho ton h thng ngn hng ca khu vc. S khc bit gia li sut ti ti tr v li sut tin qu lin bang ca M(US Fed Funds rate) l mt ch bo tt cho hng i ca cp EUR/USD

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

3-Khc bit v li tc tri phiu chnh ph 10 nm: Mt nhn t quan trng trong vic xc nh hng i ca cp EUR/USD l s khc bit trong li sut gia M v khu vc eurozone. Tri phiu 10 nm ca c thng c s dng tham chiu vi li tc ca tri phiu 10 nm ca M. S khc bit trong li tc ca hai tri phiu ny c th cung cp cho chng ta mt ch bo tt cho s dch chuyn ca cp euro/usd. Nu li tc tri phiu c cao hn so vi li tc tri phiu M v s khc bit ngy cng m rng, th iu ny ng mt s tng gi cho ng euro. Ngc li s khc bit ngy cng thu hp( mc chnh lch ngy cng nh dn) th iu ny thng l yu t bt li cho ng euro. Hy nh xu hng trong s khc bit gia li tc ca hai tri phiu th quan trng hn nhiu so vi con s tuyt i. 4-Li sut Euribor k hn 3 thng: Mt li sut hu ch khc na l li 3 thng, hay cn gi l li sut cho vay lin ngn hng khu vc euro( euribor rate). y l mc li sut cho vay t mt ngn hng ln ti cc ngn hng khc. Cc traders c xu hng so snh mc li sut Euribor tng lai vi li sut Eurodollar tng lai. Eurodollars l nhng khon tin gi bng ng usd M ti cc ngn hng v t chc ti chnh bn ngoi nc M. V nh u th thch cc ti sn c li tc cao, cc ti sn c thu nhp c nh khu vc Chu u s tr nn hp dn hn nu nh chnh lnh gia li sut tng lai ca Euribor v Eurodollar m rng theo hng c li cho Euribors. Khi s chnh lch thu hp, cc ti sn thuc khu vc euro s tr nn km hp dn hn, iu ny ng mt s st gim tim nng ca dng tin chy vo khu vc euro. 5- Economic Data : D liu kinh t quan trng nht trong khu vc n t c, nn kinh t ln nht trong khu vc, v t cc s liu thng k ca ton khu vc euro vn vn cn s khi. Cc s liu chnh thng l GDP, lm pht( CPI0 v HICP), sn lng cng nghip v t l tht nghip. Ring c, mu d liu rt quan trng l kho st IFO, o lng nim tin ca cc doanh nghip nc ny. Cng ng vai tr quan trng l s liu mc thm ht ngn sch ca tng quc gia ring bit , m theo nghi nhn ca Hip c n nh v tng trng th mc ny phi c gi di 3% GDP. Cc quc gia cng t mc tiu cho vic gim thm ht ngn sch hn na v s tht bi trong vic t c cc mc tiu ny s c kh nng gy bt li cho ng euro( ging nh chng ta thy vic Italia nh mt i cc nguyn tc gim thm ht ngn sch) 6-nh hng ca cp t gi cho: cp EUR/USD i khi b nh hng bi s dch chuyn trong cc cp tin cho( cc cp tin m khng c cha ng usd) v d nh EUR/JPY. Ly v d, cp EUR/USD c th gim gi nh l kt qu ca mt lot cc tin tc tch c c pht i t Nht lm cho cp EUR/JPY gim gi. 7-Hp ng giao sau Euro k hn 3 thng( Euribor): Hp ng ny phn nh k vng ca th trng v li sut ca cc khon tin gi EuroEuro( cc khon tin gi bng ng euro bn ngoi khu vc Chu u) trong tng lai. S khc bit v gi ca cc hp ng giao sau k hn 3 thng gi tin( cc hp ng ny cho php bn gi tin vo ngn hng ti mt thi im no trong tng lai vi li sut c n nh trc) gia cc

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

khon tin gi bng Eurodollar v EuroEuro l mt bin quan trng trong vic d bo chuyn ng ca cp EUR/USD. Theo nu hp ng EuroEuro c ph r hn nhiu so vi Eurodollar, iu ny ng rng li sut trong tng lai ca EuroEuro s c th tng hoc t nht l s khng gim, iu ny l c li cho ng euro v ngc li. 8- Cc ch bo khc: C mt mi tng quan m rt mnh gia hai cp EUR/USD v USD/CHF, phn nh mi quan h thn mt gia khu vc euro v Thy s. iu ny l do nn kinh t ca Thy s b nh hng mnh bi nn kinh t khu vc chu u. Trong hu ht cc trng hp, khi EUR/USD tng th thng i km vi s st gim trong cp EUR/CHF. iu ngc li cng ng. Tuy vy thnh thong mi quan h ny khng c gi ng trong trng hp cc d liu hoc cc yu t ch gn lin vi mt trong cc ng tin ny c cng b 9-Cc yu t chnh tr : ging nh tt c cp t gi khc, EUR/USD cng d b bin ng do nhng bt n chnh tr, v d nh nhng li e da cc chnh ph lin hip c, Php hoc Italy. Bt n ti chnh Nga cng l mt tn hiu xu cho ng euro v c mt lng ng k u t ca c vo nc Nga.

CC NHN T NH HNG N CP GBP/USD

Ngn hng trung ng Anh( BOE): Theo o lut ca ngn hng Anh thng 6/1997, th BOE c php hot ng c lp trong vic a ra cc chnh sch tin t nhm bnh n gi v gip h tr tng trng kinh t v vic lm. Mc tiu bnh n gi c a ra c ra di dng mc tiu lm pht ca chnh ph, c nh ngha nh l mc tng trng 2,5% mi nm trong ch s gi bn l khng bao gm cc khon bn th chp(RPI-X). V vy, tuy c lp trong vic a ra cc chnh sch tin t nhng cc quyt nh ngn hng trung ng Anh vn cn ph thuc vo mc tiu lm pht c a ra bi B ti chnh y ban chnh sch tin t(Monetary Policy Committee MPC): U ban ca BoE chu trch nhim trong vic a ra cc quyt nh v li sut 1-Li sut: Li sut chnh ca ngn hng Trung ng l li sut cho vay ti thiu( li sut c bn), li sut ny c s dng pht i cc tn hiu r rng v s thay i trong chinh sch tin t trong tun u tin ca mi thng. Nhng thay i trong li sut c bn thng c mt tc ng ln i vi ng bng Anh. 2-Gilts: tri phiu chnh ph Anh thng c bit n nh l chng khon thng hng (gilt-edged securities), trong thc t ngi ta hay gi tt tri phiu chnh ph Anh l gilt-

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

edged hoc n gin ch l gilt. Chnh lch li tc gia tri phiu chnh ph Anh k hn 10 nm vi tri phiu M c k hn tng t thng c tc ng ln cp t gi GBP/USD. Tng t nh vy chnh lch li tc gia tri phiu chnh ph Anh v tri phiu chnh ph c cng k hn 10 nm cng c tc ng ln cp t gi EUR/GBP 3- Cc khon tin gi bng ng Eurosterling k hn 3 thng(Three-month Eurosterling Deposits) : Eurosterling l cc khon tin gi bng ng bng Anh ti cc t chc tn dng bn ngoi nc Anh. Gii u t thng theo i li sut ca cc khon tin gi ny nh l mt ch bo c gi tr trong vic xc nh s khc bit li sut gip d bo t gi ca cc cp tin c cha ng bng Anh. Cho v d nu khc bit li sut c li hn cho cc khon tin gi bng Eurodollar so vi cc khon tin gi bng ng Eurosterling th nhiu kh nng cp GBP/USD s gim. Tuy nhin, thnh thong iu ny s khng ng do s nh hng ca nhiu nhn t khc na. 4-B ti chnh: Vai tr ca B ti chnh M trong vic ban hn cc chnh sch tin t l khng r rng do o lut ngn hng Anh ban hnh thng 6/1997. Tuy nhin, B Ti chnh vn t ra mc lm pht mc tiu cho BOE v thit lp cc cuc hp vi ngn hng trung ng. 5-D liu kinh t: Cc d liu kinh t quan trng nht l: s ngi np n xin tr cp tht nghip, t l tht nghip, thu nhp trung bnh ca ngi lao ng, ch s RPI-X, doanh s bn l, cung tin M4, cn cn thanh ton, v gi nh. 6-Hp ng giao sau Eurosterling k hn 3 thng(Short Sterling): cc hp ng ny phn nh k vng ca th trng v li sut ca cc khon tin gi Eurosterling trong tng lai. S khc bit v gi ca cc hp ng giao sau k hn 3 thng gi tin( cc hp ng ny cho php bn gi tin vo ngn hng ti mt thi im no trong tng lai vi li sut c n nh trc) gia cc khon tin gi bng Eurosterling v Eurodolla l mt bin quan trng trong vic d bo chuyn ng ca cp GBP/USD.( C th xem li phn ny phn mc ni v cp EUR/USD phn trn.) 7-FTSE-100: y l ch s chng khon hng u ca Britain's. Khng ging nh M hay Nht Bn, ch s chng khon chnh ca Anh c mc nh hng ln tin t t hn. Tuy vy, mi tng quan dng gia ch s the FTSE-100 v ch s chng khon Dow Jones Industrial Index ca M l mi quan h mnh nht trong th trng ton cu. 8-Anh hng ca cp t gi cho: Thnh thong cp GBP/USD b tc ng bi s dch chuyn ca cc cp t gi cho( nhng cp tin khng c cha ng USD), v d nh EUR/GBP. Cho v d, mt s tng gi ca cp EUR/GBP( tc ng GBP ang mt gi), c gy ra bi s k vng rng nc Anh s gia nhp vo khu vc Euro, c th s dn ti mt gim gi ca cp GBP/USD. Ngc li, khi c nhng ngun tin cho hay nc Anh c th s khng gia nhp vo ng tin chung, iu ny s lm tn thng n cp EUR/GBP, qua thc y ng bng Anh tng gi.

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

CC NHN T NH HNG N CP USD/JPY

B ti chnh Nht (Ministry of Finance, vit tt l MoF): B ti chnh Nht l mt trong nhng t chc tin t v chnh tr c lp quan bc nht Nht. nh hng ca n trong vic xc nh hng i ca ng tin th ng k hn nhiu so vi B ti chnh M, Anh hoc c, mc d cc bin php c phn cp ra quyt nh. Cc quan chc ca MoF thng a ra cc bn nh gi lin quan n nn kinh t v thng c tc ng ng k ln ng yn. Cc bo co ny bao gm s can thip bng li ni nhm mc ch trnh c s bin ng tng/ gim khng mong mun ca ng yn. Ngn hng trung ng Nht( BOJ): Nm 1998, Nht bn ban hnh lut mi cho php ngn hng trung ng Nht hot ng c lp vi chnh ph( m c th l MoF). Mc d qun kim sot v chnh sch tin t c chuyn giao hon ton cho BOJ, nhng MoF vn ph trch chnh sch v ngoi hi ca nc ny. 1-Li sut: li sut cho vay ngn hn qua m (The Overnight Call Rate) l li sut lin ngn hng ngn hn chnh. Li sut cho vay ngn hn c kim sot bi nhng hot ng th trng m ca BOJ nhm qun l tnh thanh khon ca ton h thng. BOJ s dng li sut cho vay ngn hn bo hiu nhng thay i trong chnh sch tin t, iu ny s c tc ng mnh ln ng yn. 2-Tri phiu chnh ph Nht bn(Japanese Government Bonds , gi tt l JGBs): Ngn hng trung ng Nht BOJ mua cc tri phiu chnh ph Nht k hn 10 v 20 nm mi thng lm tng tnh thanh khon cho h thng tin t. Li tc tri phiu k hn 10 nm c xem nh l mt ch bo chnh cho li sut trong di hn. Chnh lch hay s khc bit gia li tc tri phiu chnh ph Nht v M vi cng k hn 10 nm l mt nhn t rt quan trng nh huwontr ti cp USD/JPY. Mt s gim gi ca gi JGBs( tc lc ny li tc tri phiu Nht tng) thng thc y ng yn v tc ng ti bin ng ca USD/JPY 3-C quan chnh sch ti chnh v kinh t Nht: k t ngy 6/1/2001, c quan ny chnh thc thay th c quan hoch nh chnh sch kinh t(Economic Planning Agency (EPA). N l mt c quan ca chnh ph chu trch nhim trong vic xy dng cc chng trnh kinh t v phi hp cc chnh sch kinh t v d nh l vic lm, cn cn thng mi, v t gi thi oi.

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

4-B Cng nghip v thng mi quc t(Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI): y l mt t chc chnh ph hot ng nhm mc ch h tr li ch ca ngnh cng nghip Nht bn v bo v cc doanh nghip nc ny trc s canh tranh trong thng mi quc t. Nhim v v quyn lc ca MITI th khng cn ln nh trong nhng nm 1980 v u thp nin 1990, khong thi gian khi m cc vn v thng mi gia M- Nht tr thnh ch nng nht trong th trng ngoi hi. 5-D liu kinh t: Cc mc d liu kinh t quan trng nht ca Nht bn l : GDP, kho st Tankan( mt cuc kho st v k vng v tm l ca cc doanh nghip Nht bn c thc hin hng qu), cn cn thng mi quc t, t l tht nghip, sn lng cng nghip, v cung tin M2( M2+CDs) 6-Ch s Nikkei-225: y l ch s chng khon quan trng nht ca Nht. Mt s mt gi va phi ca ng yn thng lm c phiu ca cc cng ty chuyn v xut khu tng gi, gip thc y ch s chung ca th trng. Mi quan h gia Nikkei-yen i khi b o ngc, tc mt s gia tng mnh ca ch s Nikkei c xu hng thc y ng yn tng gi( tc cp USD/JPY s gim gi) do cc nh u t vn vo trong th trng chng khon Nht 7-nh hng ca t gi cho: T gi ca cp USD/JPY thnh thong b nh hng bi nhng s dch chyn ca cc cp t gi cho (cc cp tin khng c cha ng USD) v d nh EUR/JPY. Ly v d: Mt s gia tng ca cp USD/JPY( tc ng usd tng v yn gim) c th l kt qu ca s tng gi trong cp EUR/JPY hn l do ng usd tng gi trc tip. S gia tng trong cp t gi cho EUR/JPY c th c ch bi tm l tri ngc gia Nht bn v Eurozone. Mt v d khc : c EUR/JPY v EUR/USD u tng gi do cc tn hiu khi sc pht i t khu vc Euro. Do tc ng ca mt s nhn t c bit( v d nh trin vng tt hn ca nn kinh t Nht bn) lm cho s tng gi ca ng euro c tc ng ln ng USD nhiu hn so vi ng yn. V kt qu l cp USD/JPY s st gim.

NHNG THCH THC KHI PHN TCH

-C th thy vic phn tch lin th trng khng phi l mt nhim v d dng thc hin i vi mt trader bnh thng. S phc tp ca chiu hng bin i gia cc th trng v tc ng qua li gia chng gi cho chng ta thy rng nu chng ta ch n gin so snh th gi gia cc cp tin th s l khng c c mt bc tranh y hm cha sc mnh hoc s suy yu ca mt ng tin cng nh s dch chuyn gi tim nng ca n trong tng lai.

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

-Mt s nh phn tch thch thc hin nghin cu mi tng quan gia hai th trng, tc s dch chuy gi cu htij trng ca th trng th nht c quan h nh th no vi s dch chuyn gi trong th trng th hai. Hai th trng c xem nh c mi tng quan hon ho nu s dch chuyn gi ca th trng th hai cso c d bo chnh xc t s dcijhj chuyn ca th trng th nht. Mt mi tng quan dng hon ho xy ra khi c hai th trng dch chuyn theo cng mt hng. Mt mi tng quan m hon ho xy ra khi hai th trng dch chuyn ngc chiu nhau. Nhng phng php tip cn ny c hn ch ca n do n ch so snh gi ca hai cp tin vi nhau chng hn m khng xt ti nh hng t cc cp tin khc hoc cc th trng khc ti th trng m chng ang phn tch. Trong th trng ti chnh v c bit l trong th trng forex , mt s cc th trng c lin quan vi nhau cn phi c lit k vo trong phn tch hn l ch gi nh rng c mi quan h nhn qu(one-to-one cause-effect )gia hai th trng. -Thng thng cc tnh ton ca chng ta ch da trn gi tr ti thi im hin ti v khng xem xt ti hu qu lu di do s can thip ca ngn hng trung ng hoc nhng thay i v chnh sch cn phi c mt qung thi gian c th pht huy c hiu qu trong th trng. ng Canada( CAD) v ng c( AUD) l mt v d, c hai ng tin ny c xem nh tin t hng ha. Nhn chung chng c th c mt mi tng quan cao khi nn kinh t tng trng tc ng ti gi hng ha nguyn liu th, v chng c th di chuyn cng nhau khi ng USD hoc cc ng tin ln khc di chuyn theo hng khc do lng tin thay i Nhng ng AUD th nhy cm hn nhiu ti s pht trin khu vc Chu v phn ng mnh hn vi nhng g xy ra khu vc ny, ch t l trong mt khong thi gian. Tng t nh vy, khi ng tin ca Trung quc tr nn mnh hn trong th trng tin t th gii, iu ny gy ra tc ng i vi ng yn nhiu hn l i vi cc ng tin khc. Hoc s tng trng trong nn kinh t Anh c th gip cho ng bng( GBP) trnh khi s dn dt ca ng euro.

Ti liu tham kho

Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- A New Thinking

123456http://stockcharts.com http://www.deltastock.com Intermarket Analysit- John Murphy Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market- Kathy Lien Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets- Louis B. Mendelsohn http://www.investopedia.com

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