- Analyzing Operational Efficiency of Paper Enterprises in Vietnam and an Empirical Financial Forecasting. - The research used data from the General Statistics Office of Viet Nam for 6 years to analyze the operation efficiency of Vietnam’s paper enterprises. - From the statistical results, Vietnam’s paper industry is attracting many investors which registered a huge number of new enterprises over the years. - This paper shows that the basic characteristic of Viet Nam's paper enterprises is to focus on industrial zones, mostly small scales and privately owned. - The average annual income of workers in this field is about 78.5 million VND per person per year. - Although the business results have increased dramatically, but the efficiency of these enterprises have not remained stable in the past period. - The research also provides an empirical analysis on the financial forecasting method according to the percentage of sales to helps them in financial forecasting activities in the next period in order to achieve stable development.. - For enterprises, operational efficiency directly reflects the results of the management in using various resources in the production and business process. - The higher enterprises operate efficiency, the better enterprises manage and use of resources, and the greater enterprises contribute to the economy of the country (Naser and Mokhtar, 2004). - Business operational efficiency represents the relative relationship between outputs and inputs which are used in the business operations (Pham Thi Thuy and Nguyen Thi Lan Anh, 2018). - Vietnam’s paper industry was formed in about 284 AC with the manual method. - In the year 1912, the first pulp factory in Viet Nam was put into operation in Phu Tho province.. - Nowaday, investment in Vietnam’s paper industry is attractive significantly because of the demand for this products is increasing while the pressure from replacement products is almost none. - The research's purpose is analysing the operational efficiency of Vietnam’s paper enterprises in the five years (from 2013 to 2017) to determine the level of their efficiency. - From the results analysing the overall efficiency of the paper industry, this research encourages Vietnam’s paper enterprises should have their own financial forecasting activities in the next stages in order to achieve stable development. - Therefore, the author will apply the forecasting method according to percentage of sales to illustrate the method of financial forecasting for these paper enterprises.. - In the world, Analyzing operational efficiency of enterprise has a huge history and now this content is commonly applied such as an important tool in business management.. - In Viet Nam, the research about paper enterprises in Vietnam is not much. - Research results of Vu Duy Vinh (2009) and Vu Hung Phuong (2009) showed that Vietnam’s paper. - enterprises were faced with many challenges in the period of international economic integration.. - So, these authors assessed the competitiveness of the paper industry in Vietnam and proposed recommendations to improve the competitiveness of the paper industry. - These researchs focused on the competitiveness of the paper industry, but there were no researchs analyzing the efficiency of paper enterprises and guiding financial forecasting.. - When the revenue changes, the business expenses also change, and the profit changes lead to change the assets and capital of the business.. - Analyzing operational efficiency of paper enterprises in Vietnam . - Overview of Vietnamese paper enterprises. - Paper industry is one of the major industries in Viet Nam that produces pulp and paper. - So, this sector relates to many sectors of the national economy such as agriculture and forestry, industry, chemistry, energy, electricity, transportation.... - In 1912 the was an important mark in the development of Vietnam's paper industry when the first pulp factory with the industrial method began the operation with a capacity of 4,000 tons papers per year in Viet Tri city of Phu Tho province. - In the 1960s, many paper factories were built such as Viet Tri Paper Factory. - In 1975, the total designed capacity of Vietnam's paper industry was 72,000 tons per year, but the actual output was only about 28,000 tons per year due to the war and the imbalance between pulp and paper quantity.. - In the year 1982, the Bai Bang Paper Factory was put into production as a result of tirelessly creativity in work of the leaders, technical experts, engineers and workers in Vietnam and Sweden during the period of eight years (beginning from 1974 to 1982) by grants nearly 2.7 billion cuaron from Sweden government. - The main business headquarters was located in Phong Chau Town, Phu Ninh District, Phu Tho Province with a total area of 100 hectares, designed capacity of 53,000 tons of pulp per year and 55,000 tons of paper per year. - Over the past 30 years Viet Nam’s paper industry had dramatical increase on production, from 88,700 tons in the year 1986 to 2,075,400 tons in the year 2010 and reached 2,420,000 tons in the year 2016 (Figure 2). - Some paper enterprises had the subsidary factories but the capacity was low and only enough serving for their demand. - In present, the pulp capacity was only accounting for 21.08% compare to the paper capacity.. - Now, the basic characteristics of the Vietnam’s paper industry are many paper and pulp enterprises with small capacity. - Many enterprises with capacity of less than 10,000 tons per year, accounted for 81.79% of the total number of enterprises but the total capacity only accounted for 21.26% of the total capacity of the whole industry. - Although these enterprises contributed significantly to socio-economic development in the country, but this model often lack of a standard environmental treatment system, so caused environmental pollution. - Meanwhile, the number of enterprises with a capacity of 50,000 tons per year or more only accounted for 3.31%, but the total capacity accounted for 45.5% of the total capacity of the industry, with an average capacity of 94,435 tons per year. - Forecast on the average paper growth for the period 2016-2020 is 12% per year and for the period 2021-2025 is 10% per year (Table 1). - It is forecasted that by 2025, the capacity of Vietnam’s paper industry will be tons per year, the consumption demand will be tons per year, the paper production will reach the capacity of 8,944,714 tons per year (Table 2).. - It can be said that the Vietnam’s paper industry has a resonant impact on other industries such as forestry, chemistry, coal and electricity. - This resonance has the effect on balances of the development of associated industries, particularly the forestry sector.. - However, the effectiveness of the Vietnam’s paper enterprises in recent years should continue to be evaluated and find the factors that affect the effectiveness of the development in order to propose solutions for sustainability.. - The condition of Vietnam's paper industry in 2010 and the development planning of Vietnam's paper industry to 2020 with a vision to 2025. - per year . - Prospects for capacity, consumption, production, import and export of Vietnamese paper enterprises in the period 2016-2025. - kg per person per year . - kg per person per year Source: Research Institute of pulp and paper Industry, 2012. - If classified by purpose, the paper products are divided into six groups:. - Nowaday in Vietnam, paper enterprises only produce products such as printing paper, newsprint, ordinary industrial paper, Votive paper, low quality toilet paper, medium quality tissue paper. - Analyzing operational efficiency of paper enterprises in Vietnam in the period of 6 years . - In the period of 6 years the number of paper enterprises went up substantially. - This result showed that Vietnamese paper industry was attractive for Investors.. - In the year 2017, Vietnamese paper industry registered a huge quantity of enterprises, accounting for 2485 in many different group scales, mostly small and micro-sized businesses (Table 3). - Number of paper enterprises by size and type of ownership Year. - Pulp and paper enterprises have been distributed almost everywhere in regions that has ability to develop, ability to receive projects and respond the demand for raw materials zone for production. - In other provinces, paper factories can be located in the industrial zone together with the enterprises of other industries.. - Figure 4: Distribution density of Vietnam’s paper enterprises in 2016. - The paper industry registered a large workforce engaged in manufacturing and trading in the paper sector. - The number of labors has increased steadily over the years and labors working in the packaging paper industry had the largest proportion. - In the year 2012, the total number of employees involved in the paper industry was 96,963 person and by 2017 that of number reached 106,382 person (Table 4). - Total average income per year of a worker improve over years and there was slightly different between groups. - In the year 2012, Total average income per year per worker was 43,4 million VND. - In the year 2017 the average annual income of workers in this sector was almost double that of number in the year 2012, averaging 78.5 million VND per person per year. - The scales of the enterprise changed varies with income levels. - For example in 2017, the average annual income of workers who worked in super small enterprises was about 66.4 million VND per person per year whereas the average annual income of workers who worked in large enterprises is 134.7 per person per year (Table 5).. - Table 4: Statistics on the number of laborers involved in the paper industry in the period of 6 years Unit: Person). - Statistics average annual income of employees who worked in the paper industry in the period of 6 years . - Statistics of main business results and main effective indicators of Vietnamese paper enterprises in the period of 6 years showed that in this period the business results of enterprises had improved: average revenue increased, taxes and other payables to the State budget increased. - In 2012, the total revenue of the Vietnamses paper industry was 86,692 billion VND, total profit after tax was 3,220 billion VND, total contributions to the state budget was 4,541 billion VND. - The overall analysis shows that although Vietnamese paper enterprises increased significantly their revenue, the growth rate of profit after tax did not go up significantly. - Business results of these enterprises in recent years have suffered losses while large enterprises seem to have a competitive advantage that were trying to increase their profitability over the years despite the unstable growth rate (Table 6).. - Vietnam’s paper enterprises created Value add more than 13 billion VND per year.. - There was 2 years that registered return on assets positive such as 2013 and 2017 whereas treturn on assets in and 2016 were not Vietnam’s effective for paper enterprises (Table 7).. - Statistics some business results of Vietnam’s paper enterprises in the period of 6 years . - Growth rate. - Figure 5: Chart of business results of Vietnam’s paper enterprises in the period of 6 years . - Database of past business periods will be used to forecast the next stages of Vietnam’s paper enterprises. - The empirical study is based on the audited financial statements of Viet Tri Paper Joint Stock Company (GVT) in the period of 4 years . - This paper prodive financial forecasting of Viet Tri Paper Joint Stock Company for the year 2018. - Since then, the objective of this empirical study show a financial forecasting method for Vietnamese paper enterprises which provide management policies for executives to achieve their goals.. - From 2014 to 2017, revenue of GVT Company was not stable, revenue in the year 2016 went down 6.84%. - compared to this ratio in the year 2015. - But in the year 2017 the growth rate of revenue of GVT company increased sharply 27.23% compared to 2016 (Table 8). - Based on the average growth rate of this period and considering the upward trend in the overall paper market in Vietnam (Table 7), the analyst forecasts GVT Company's revenue growth rate in 2018 will reach 8%.. - Overview of the financial situation of GVT Company . - Source: Audited financial statement for the period 2014-2017. - Similarly, the author based on the average of the indicators for the period 2014-2017 in table 9 to forecast the percentage of indicators per revenues for 2018. - On the basis of the forecasted revenue in step 1 and forecasted percentage of financial indicators per revenue on some basic indicators, analysts easily forecast financial indicators in 2018 as shown in Table 10. - These indicators is the basis for making forecasts on business results and forecasts of the accounting balance sheet. - Results from this analysis show the current business efficiency of Vietnam’s paper enterprises in the past . - Research shows that the basic characteristics of Vietnamese paper industry that Vietnamese paper enterprises concentrate in industrial zones, mostly small scales and privately owned. - The average annual income of workers working in this field is about 78.5 million VND per person per year. - Although Vietnam’s paper enterprises are increasing their consumption volume, their business results in recent years are not good, leading to unstable performance.. - The paper implicate that Vietname’s paper enterprises should consider many factors investing in this sector and should take management measures to ensure increased consumption along with increase profit and improve business efficiency. - Some factors that need to be considered and improved are the production line, the stability of the input materials, especially the recycled materials, the measures of waste disposal in the environment. - In addition, the paper recommends that Vietnamese paper enterprises improve their business performance and financial forecasts to ensure good control over business activities in the next period.. - Vu Duy Vinh (2009), 'Solutions to improve competitiveness of Vietnam Paper Corporation in the context of international economic integration', PhD, University of Finance.. - Vu Hung Phuong (2009), 'Enhancing the competitiveness of Vietnam paper industry in the context of international economic integration', PhD, National Economics University.
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