- Risk analysis of bridge construction projects in the Mekong delta region under the impact of climate change. - During the implementation of bridge projects in the Mekong Delta, many risk factors caused by the climate change have appeared.. - These risk factors directly and seriously affect the performance of the entire project. - This article focuses on identifying and analyzing the risks of bridge projects in the area under the impact of climate change. - The author uses survey methods, consults experts and regression analysis to clarify which risk factors are the most dangerous, thereby proposing solutions to improve risk management. - The article will help bridge projects achieve better efficiency, meet the criteria in terms of progress, cost and quality.. - Keywords: Bridge Projects. - Risk management. - Climate change. - Bridge projects were actively invested in the Mekong delta region during the last decades. - These projects play an important role in the developing of the area. - Besides, Mekong delta region is assessed to be one of the regions greatly affected by the climate change [1]. - There is a closed relationship between the climate change and construction projects. - Therefore, the Vietnam government expressed the serious interest in the sustainable development of the area.. - Facing the situation, there were numerous reputable authors conducting researches related to risk management in construction projects. - However, these studies do not clarify the risk factors formed by the climate change and the level of impact on construction works. - Therefore, the purpose of this article is to identify the risk factors and analyze its influence to bridge projects in the Mekong delta under the climate change. - On that basis, the research scope is bridge projects in Mekong delta region from the. - year 2000 to the present. - Its practical values will be applied to bridge projects and contribute to completing the risk management system.. - Risk management Process Risk Identification:. - From the project risk management process models above, it can be seen that the first step in risk management efforts is the identification of risk factors. - According to Project Management Institute PMI [2] “A risk factor cannot be managed if it is not identified. - That is why, the first step in risk management is to identify all the risk factors that are relevant to the project objective”. - To find out the risk factors, the authors use these methods:. - Through this method, a list of risk management will be found out.. - Past experience: The list above may not be suitable for the real situation in Mekong Delta, so that the authors conduct surveys of typical bridge construction projects in the Mekong Delta region.. - Through the review of the project's past data and the actual operation of existing projects to confirm the list and point out more risk factors. - By this method, the list of risk factors will be reliable.. - Risk analysis is the calculation and measurement of the impact of risk factors on the effectiveness of a special construction project. - The main input data of the risk analysis process is the process of risk identification and risk classification. - The probability and impact of the risk factor are two important variables for risk assessment.. - A questionnaire survey is sent to experts having intensive knowledge in construction projects to measure the impact of risk factors and its possibility.. - In order to quantify the frequency as well as the level of risk, the authors build a Likert scale. - Although the more detailed the scale, the more accurate it is, but at the detailed level, it will be difficult for the respondents because the degree of discrimination of the level states at the score levels does not differ much. - The measurement of the risk factor impact:. - To assess the risk factor, Linkert scale is used with corresponding score. - Linkert scale on risk factor impact. - The measurement of the possibility:. - To assess the risk factor possibility, Linkert scale is used with corresponding score. - Linkert scale on risk factor Possibility. - The score of risk factor is counted by (α) x (β). - Experts involved in the survey:. - Theoretically, it is possible to calculate the required number of samples based on the mathematical formula, typically proposed by Fellows and Liu [4]:. - In the above formula, we have: s is the standard deviation of the sample. - (μ -x) is half the width of the required confidence. - However, in practice, more specifically, under the conditions of this study, it is not possible to determine the value of the standard deviation s without data collection. - Another commonly used method is based on the experience of previous studies. - The number of preliminary samples can be calculated as 4-5 times the number of variables used in the analysis of the study, especially the factor analysis. - Given the nature and objectives of the study, this study preliminarily determines the sample size by 5 times the number of factors.. - The participants in the survey must have more than five-year experience in construction field with following positions:. - The result is showed in the table below. - The risk factor score Risk. - Code Risk Element Impact Possibility Score R1 Sea level rising . - It is clear that the sea level rising is the factor greatly influencing on the construction projects, with the score of 20.33, followed by the heavy rain and temperature, with the score of 12.29 and 10.42 respectively.. - On the other hand, Flooding, Saltwater intrusion and Storm were considered to have a strong impact on bridge works.. - However, these risk factor rarely occur, this is demonstrated by the score of possibility.. - Based on the result, the authors classify risk factors to three groups: Dangerous risk factor, Medium risk factor, Low risk factor.. - Dangerous risk factor: Sea level rising. - Sea level rising results in the increasing of water level in the local rivers. - Experts argued that sea level rising affects projects directly and indirectly. - Sea level rise will cause old projects to be upgraded and renovated.. - Medium risk factor: Heavy rain, Temperature, Erosion. - Heavy rain and erosion caused difficulties during the construction of the project, leading to the generated volume during construction. - Low risk factor: Flooding, Saltwater intrusion, Storm This group of risk factor seriously affect the project. - Compared with the studies conducted by Nguyen Ba Hoang [1], Dang Trung Thanh [6], Luong Phuong Hop [7], the authors have provided detailed evidence to explain the level impact of risk factors which were pointed out by the previous studies.. - Dangerous risk factor. - The risk that has the highest impact on the project is sea level rising. - The risk response solution is built on the basis that managers have forecast information about sea level rising. - This is the vital data to come up with the appropriate solution. - Through (GIS), the project management can obtain scenarios of sea level rising, depending on the level of risk tolerance that the manager will make to respond to risks effectively.. - Besides, in the preparing stage of the project, the design work is complied with state standard. - However, facing the changes in sea level, the Ministry of Construction and the Ministry of transport should conduct surveys and relevant input datas to make some changes in the standard adapting to the situation.. - Medium risk factor:. - The medium risk factor group includes Heavy rain, Temperature, and Erosion. - With Heavy rain and Erosion, when constructing bridge projects in the Mekong Delta, contractors must choose appropriate construction arrangement. - When making the construction schedule, it is necessary to pay attention to the time of the rainy season in order to have feasible plans. - The author recommends that, in order to adapt to climate change and manage project risks better in the future, project management boards need to be more aware of this issue. - Risk management should be carried out in a proactive and systematic manner. - Project risk management is an important issue contributing to the success of the project. - In the Mekong delta area. - Risk management is faced with problems related to climate change. - To improve the management efficiency of bridge projects in the area.. - This article has been identified risk factors through research of scientific literature and actual projects. - On that basis, the risk factors are evaluated by experts to classify according to the level of danger.. - Through the research results, bridge projects in the Mekong Delta will have more references during the implementation process. - For the project management, the article will help the project manager consider and come up with appropriate solutions to the risks.. - and Crandall, “Systematic risk management approach for construction projects,” J. - PMI (Project Management Institute), “Standards Committee, A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK® Guide), 4th ed
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