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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 3

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Building a Crystal Ball Model. Typically, we begin with a deterministic spreadsheet model of the situation we are analyzing, then use Crystal Ball to add stochastic assumptions to represent the most important sources of uncertainty. In the past, stochastic modeling was an endeavor best undertaken only by highly trained scientists and engineers working on mainframe computers. Crystal Ball has been...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 4

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Selecting Crystal Ball Assumptions. For example, Figure 4.2 shows Crystal Ball’s yes-no distribution for Pr(yes. The spreadsheet segment in Figure 4.3 shows a simple model to be used for finding the number of heads observed when tossing a fair coin five times. FIGURE 4.1 The basic distributions listed in Crystal Ball’s distribution gallery.. For a simple example of finding an...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 5

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Using Decision Variables. DEFINING DECISION VARIABLES. As an example of the latter, consider the model depicted in Figure 5.1, TwoCorrelatedAssets.xls, where we have two correlated assets and we wish to vary the correlation coefficient to see the effect on the rate of return of a portfolio composed of the two assets. We will invest half of our available funds in...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 6

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Selecting Run Preferences. N ow that we have covered the basics of setting up a Crystal Ball model and using its forecasts to help you make decisions, we will take a closer look at the options available to you through the Run Preferences menu to control the execution of your simulation models.. Figure 6.1 shows the Trials tab of the...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 7

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In this chapter, we will consider both sides of the controversy and see some models where the distribution of NPV can help the decision maker gain insight into the problem at hand. These cash flows are depicted in the Excel chart on the spreadsheet segment in Figure 7.1. Then the NPV of the annuity is defined as. For the cash...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 8

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Modeling Financial Statements. P erhaps the most widely used financial models are the pro forma income statement and balance sheet. Most companies use deterministic versions of these models for planning, and they are a natural place to start when constructing a Crystal Ball model. In this chapter, we will focus on using Crystal Ball with an existing deterministic model, just...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 9

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This chapter demonstrates the use of Crystal Ball and OptQuest for determining the optimal allocation of funds in an investment portfolio based on the decision maker’s risk tolerance. We use Crystal Ball and OptQuest to find an optimal allocation for a situation where we know the true optimal allocation, and one where we do not.. SINGLE-PERIOD CRYSTAL BALL MODEL. In...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 10

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Value at Risk. In this chapter, we see how to use Crystal Ball to find VaR and a related measure, Conditional VaR (CVaR).. More precisely, let R denote the total return (in dollars) on an investment, I, and let c denote the α percentile of the distribution of R. Then the α percent VaR is defined as L = I...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 11

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Simulating Financial Time Series. Gauss, who studied the properties of the normal distribution.. Figure 11.1 shows the model. FIGURE 11.1 Model to compare a white noise process to a random walk. A Gaussian white noise process was generated in cells C6:C35 using Expression 11.1, and a time series plot of one realization of the process appears in the center of...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 12

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A financial option is a security that grants its owner the right, but not the obligation, to trade another financial security at specified times in the future for an agreed amount. The financial security that can be traded in the future is called the underlying asset, or simply the underlying. An option is an example of a derivative security, so...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 13

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Often though, many of the assumptions must be relaxed to make the connection. The value of the underlying stock on which an option is purchased. Some examples of the sources of uncertainty that affect the present value of cash flows from investment. Its real options analog is the present value of all the investment costs that are expected over the...

Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp: Giải pháp tăng cường huy động tiền gửi tiết kiệm tại NH Á Châu Đà Nẵng – Cầu vồng

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NHTM Ngân hàng thương mại TCKT Tổ chức kinh tế. TCTD Tổ chức tín dụng TGTK Tiền gửi tiết kiệm NH Ngân hàng. NHTW Ngân hàng trung ương NHTG Ngân hàng trung gian. Chương I: NHTM và hoạt động huy động tiền gửi tiết kiệm. Thabunsuc Thalongsin 8 Chương I: NHTM và hoạt động huy động tiền gửi tiết kiệm....

Bộ đề ôn Lý thuyết Tài chính Tiền tệ

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ể ỏ ử ụ ị ư ỏ d) C 3 ph ả ươ ng án trên.. Minshkin (1996), Ch ậ ể ủ ươ ng 2.. d) C 3 ph ả ươ ng án trên đ u đúng. c) Ngân hàng Trung ươ ng hoàn toàn có th n đ nh đ ể ấ ị ượ ượ c l ng ti...

BỘ ĐỀ THI HẾT MÔN LÝ THUYẾT TÀI CHÍNH TIỀN TỆ PHẦN I

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"Gi y b c ngân hàng". d) Ti n g i ban đ u và ti n g i do các ngân hàng th ề ử ầ ề ử ươ ng m i t o ra. d) Phát hành và bán trái phi u Chính ph cho các Ngân hàng Th ế ủ ươ ng m i. Ch ươ ng...

Trắc nghiệm Tài chính tiền tệ (phần 1)

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c) Kh năng tài s n có th đ ả ả ể ượ c bán m t cách d dàng v i giá th tr ộ ễ ớ ị ườ ng.. ể ỏ ử ụ ị ư ỏ d) C 3 ph ả ươ ng án trên.. d) C 3 ph ả ươ ng án trên đ u đúng. c)...

PHẦN 2: NHỮNG VẤN ĐỀ CƠ BẢN VỀ TÀI CHÍNH

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NH NG V N Đ C B N Ữ Ấ Ề Ơ Ả V TÀI CHÍNH Ề. 2.1 Quá trình ra đ i và phát tri n c a tài chính ờ ể ủ 2.2 B n ch t c a tài chính ả ấ ủ. 2.3 Ch c năng c a tài chính ứ ủ 2.4 H th ng...

Encyclopedia of Finance Part 1

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The Le Chatelier Principle of the Captial Market. Applications of the Binomial Distribution to Evaluate Call Options. If the company does grow and succeed after the sale, someone else – the new investor – will reap the benefits. Total cash flow of the firm ¼ Operating cash flow Capital spending Additions to net. A (micro or macro) forecast that has...

Encyclopedia of Finance Part 2

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DEPOSIT INSURANCE SCHEMES. More than two-thirds of member countries of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have experi- enced one or more banking crises in recent years.. The inherent fragility of banks has motivated about 50 percent of the countries in the world to establish deposit insurance schemes. By increasing depositor confidence, deposit insurance has the potential to provide for a...

Encyclopedia of Finance Part 3

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Our analysis indicates that a cou- pon-prefunded bond is equivalent to a zero-coupon bond only if the return from the escrow account is the same as the yield to maturity of the prefunded issue. Keywords: zero-coupon bond. With a pre- funded bond structure, additional bonds are issued and an escrow account is established to finance coupon payments over the life...

Encyclopedia of Finance Part 4

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In the following, we present an overview of the main credit derivatives such as default swaps, total return swaps, and credit spread options.. As a result, the payer of the fixed coupon has a credit exposure to the issuer of the defaulting bond. The asset swap spread is therefore the additional return required by the payer of the fixed coupon...